Re: China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to Reunite Taiwan

["Jose G. Perez" <jgperez@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Henry,

    This report seems so outlandishly extraordinary that I'm forced to ask
whether it could possibly be accurate.

    What it would take to reunify Taiwan by force would not just be
missiles, unless these were nuclear, but a massive sea/air invasion. I
discount the use of nuclear weapons in these circumstances, it would be a
political blunder of such colossal magnitude that I can't imagine the
Chinese leadership considering this for a second.

    As for an invasion, does the PLA have this capacity? Not just troop
transports, but escort vessels, etc. etc. I assume the Taiwanese have shore
defenses and that one must assume stiff resistance and very heavy casualties
on the PLA side. Also, this assumes that China can establish control of the
strait and of the air very quickly. That's not a realistic proposition if
the U.S. intervenes on Taiwan's side, is it? And the U.S. almost certainly
would, and very quickly as it has tremendous amounts of military assets in
the region.

    Also, does China have the sea and air lift capability to supply an army
in the field?

    As to completely destroying an opponent's military capability with
conventional air and rocketry, I think all experience shows that, assuming
Taiwan has an o.k. military, this is almost certainly unlikely to happen in
24 days, never mind 24 hours. I should think that at most China could launch
a few hundred missiles in that time.

    And if the idea is that a "spanking" would make Taiwan yield, I think
that's an extremely iffy proposition.

José


----- Original Message -----
From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <marxism@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, April 30, 2000 9:48 PM
Subject: China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to
Reunite Taiwan


> A Hong Kong Chinese language newspaper (Ming Pao) reports that China has
> notified the US of its intention to use military force to reunite Taiwan
> if the inauguration speech of the new Taiwan president, Chen Shu-bian,
> scheduled for May 20, fails to incorporate an officialacceptance of the
> "one China" principle to reject any moves toward independence.
> The report states that the PLA is prepared for the eventuality of US
> forces intereventing in the conflict over Taiwan.  Anti-US sentiment
> from the bombing of the Chinese embassy has not subsided as the
> anniversarry of the incident approaches.
>
> The PLA is confident that its missiles can neutralize all military
> capabiities on Taiwan within 24 hours. The concern is with US
> intervention which will prolong the conflict and incur high cost.  PLA
> officials are reported to be fully prepared for the contingency.
>
> Henry C.K. Liu
>
>

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