Chinese Demonstrators Raise Mao

["ÁÎ×Ó¹â HenryC.K.Liu ¹ù¤l¥ú" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Stratfor.com

  2031 GMT, 991116 ? Chinese Demonstrators Raise Mao

                                       Demonstrations in the Chinese
city of Chongqing flared up again over the weekend, mirroring protests
held a month earlier. According to the Information Center of Human
Rights and Democratic Movement in China, 2,000 demonstrators took to the
streets demanding that the local government take responsibility for
losses in illegal investment schemes. The demonstrations took on a new
feel Nov. 15 as protestors waved pictures of Mao Zedong and chanted
"Down with corruption."

                  The resurgence of the demonstrations against the local
government ? coupled with the change in tactics ? suggests that this is
not a spontaneous demonstration of public dissatisfaction as the October
demonstrations likely were. Instead, the symbolism employed now is
likely a message to the central government by interests opposed to
China?s economic reforms and its opening to the West. The symbolic use
of Mao imagery could very well appear in economic protests in other
cities.

                  Ironically, the protest in Chongqing occurred on the
same day Chinese and United States officials agreed to a bilateral deal
which would further open Chinese markets while paving the way for
Chinese entry into the World Trade Organization. The deal, while long in
the works, brings China to a decision point. If it fully embraces the
economic and structural aspects of the agreement, a political shift will
necessarily follow. China cannot fully open its markets and adopt a
Western economic model, while maintaining centralized control.

                  It is this problem that underlies the ongoing struggle
within China?s government. While President Jiang Zemin, resplendent in
his Mao suit at the Oct. 1 celebration of China?s fiftieth anniversary,
firmly established himself as the core of the third generation
leadership, the question remains as to who will replace China?s aging
leaders. However, the moderates and economic reformers, typified by
Premier Zhu Rongji, a key author of China?s economic reforms, are
fighting the hard-liners for leadership of the fourth generation.

                  The image of the people rising up to embrace Mao and
to clean out corrupt government officials becomes a potential rallying
point for those opposed to the economic reformers and those deemed too
pro-West. The Chongqing protest may be just the first of many such
indigenous cries from the masses for a return to the days of Mao, when
greed and graft were purged from the government and Western ideas were
not allowed to infect the Chinese populace.