Could Stalinists Benefit from Zhirinovsky Ban?

["Macdonald Stainsby" <mstainsby@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

There! Sorry about that
Macdonald



? Could Stalinists Benefit from Zhirinovsky Ban?

Following the Russian Central Electoral Commission?s (CEC) Oct. 11 decision
to ban the LDPR from the December Duma election, Liberal Democratic Party of
Russia (LDPR) leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky emerged from an emergency party
congress Oct.13 to announce the creation of the new "Zhirinovsky Bloc."

Although he appears to have recovered quickly from the LDPR ban,
Zhirinovsky?s new bloc will have to be approved by the CEC. If it is not,
the LDPR will no longer be a factor in the elections, leaving the protest
vote open to even more radical factions.

The Zhirinovsky Bloc is comprised of the remains of the LDPR; Russia?s
Spiritual Revival, led by Zhirinovsky?s wife; and the Russian Union of Free
Youth, another small organization with ties to the LDPR. Since both of the
new coalition parties were little more than administrative shells, the new
Zhirinovsky Bloc will essentially resubmit the LDPR?s party list ? sans the
convicted criminals and other questionable candidates objected to by the
CEC.

Despite the quick recovery, Zhirinovsky, who made his career in scandal and
outrageous behavior, may finally have gone too far. He had included more
than 20 convicted or suspected criminals on his party?s federal slate,
including Krasnoyarsk aluminum plant chief Anatoly Bykov, currently hiding
abroad from prosecution on money laundering charges. Zhirinovsky openly
argued that Russia?s criminal class needed representation in parliament,
though it is far more likely that Bykov and the other questionable
candidates were the product of simple cash transactions. Zhirinovsky is
widely reputed to sell both votes and Duma seats, which offer immunity from
prosecution that would be very valuable to an indicted felon.

When Zhirinovsky gave Bykov the number two spot on the LDPR slate, he sealed
its fate with the CEC. Under Russian electoral law, if any of the top three
members of the party slate are rejected by the CEC, the entire party is
banned from taking part in the election. Moreover, the party cannot simply
remove the rejected candidates and resubmit its slate. While its members can
still compete in the 225 single member districts, the rejected party must
join at least two other parties in a new bloc in order to compete for the
225 seats chosen by proportional representation.

Zhirinovsky appears to have met that minimum goal, though the CEC must
approve the new arrangement. Technically, the LDPR formed a bloc with its
own splinter groups and resubmitted its candidate list, giving the CEC ample
grounds to reject the "new" bloc. With the registration period ending Oct.
24, Zhirinovsky would be hard pressed to recover from a second rejection.

Even before the party slate was rejected, polls showed the LDPR?s popularity
was too low to garner the 5 percent vote required by Russian electoral law
to be included in the proportional distribution of seats. More than
Zhirinovsky?s antics, what hurt the LDPR most with the voters was its
consistent support for President Boris Yeltsin as well as rumors of its
infiltration by allies of hated oligarch Boris Berezovsky. The rejection and
reorganization may put the last nail in the LDPR?s ? make that the
Zhirinovsky Bloc?s ? coffin. But while the Zhirinovsky Bloc may not have a
chance either way, a CEC decision to ban the bloc could have a significant
impact on how other parties fare at the polls.

The LDPR absorbs Russia?s protest vote. Its candidates are not taken
seriously as individuals. In 1995, only one LDPR member managed to win a
Duma seat on his own merits in a single-member district. If the Zhirinovsky
Bloc is rejected, the LDPR will cease to exist. More importantly, the
protest vote will go to other factions, several of which are more radical ?
and more seriously ideological ?than Zhirinovsky. Notable among these, and
at this point still a very dark horse in the campaign, is the "Stalinist
Bloc: Workers? Russia, Officers ? for the USSR," led by Viktor Anpilov, Gen.
Stanislav Terekhov and Col. Yevgeny Dzhugashvili, Stalin?s grandson. In its
1995 iteration, this bloc garnered more than 4.5 percent of the vote. Given
the political and economic deterioration in Russia since 1995, even a
fraction of the protest LDPR vote could help the Stalinists to squeak into
the Duma.


info@xxxxxxxxxxxx



______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com