Turkey Forward..

[malecki@xxxxxxxxxx (Robert Malecki)]

Forwarding this to the list on turkey.

WORRY BEAD TIME IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
by
Eric Margolis  22 July 1996

Trouble is brewing up fast across the  entire eastern end of
the Mediterranean. Ironically - and surprisingly - the
Israeli-Palestinian peace pact has been the catalyst for
this new crisis.

The Oslo Accords broke up a 50-year old diplomatic logjam,
allowing the region's nations to finally ditch the sterile
Arab-Israeli struggle,and focus attention, instead, on more
timely, pressing disputes - many of which are now becoming
confusingly and dangerously intertwined.

Turkey, long a discreet ally of Israel, came out of the
closet after the Oslo Accords. So did Jordan.  In February,
Turkey signed an extremely important  military co-operation
agreement with Israel. It allows the Israeli Air Force to
train in Turkey and, very likely, to conduct intelligence
flights along Turkey's borders with its three unfriendly
neighbors, Iraq, Iran and Syria - all foes of Israel.

This column has been told that a secret provision of the
pact, imposed under American pressure,  may allow Israeli
warplanes to use Turkish bases to attack Iran, Syria or Iraq
under certain circumstances.

The Turks are at scimitar's drawn with Syria and Iraq over
Turkey's huge Ataturk Dam system in eastern Anatolia.  Iraq
and Syria accuse Turkey of grabbing 50% of the upstream flow
of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, their sole source of
fresh ground water. Old foes Turkey and Iran are always on
bad terms.

To get back at the Turks, Syria provides arms and bases to
Turkey's Kurdish PKK rebels, against whom the Turkish Army
has fought a long, bloody guerrilla war for a decade.

Turkey retaliated by signing the recent deal with Israel.
This caused the wily Syrians to steal a march on the Turks
by reportedly making a secret pact with Greece, a longtime
friend of the Arabs.  Damascus may permit the crack Greek
Air Force to base warplanes on Syria's coast, near Latakia.
If true, the deal is extremely important: its alters the
military balance in the eastern Mediterranean.

After a coup and bloody civil war between Greek and Turkish
Cypriots, Turkey invaded northern Cyprus in 1974.  Since
then, old foes Greece and Turkey have repeatedly been close
to war over Cyprus and the disputed Aegean Sea.

Mainland Greek forces cannot currently defend Cyprus, which
is just off the southern Turkish coast.  The nearest Greek
bases to Cyprus are in Crete, at the outer operational range
of Greece's F-16's and Mirages's.  By contrast, Turkish
warplanes are only  minutes flying time from Cyprus.

Greek warplanes operating from Syria could provide air
support to Greek forces in Cyprus, topcover to the Greek
fleet, and  attack Turkey's southern air bases and naval
units around Cyprus.  Meanwhile, Greek Cypriots are urgently
expanding  and upgunning their 10,000-man national guard to
counter the 30,000 Turkish garrison on Cyprus.  Both Greece
and Turkey, who nearly went to war this spring, are locked
in a feverish arms race.

The advent of a new Islamic government in Turkey -Prime
Minister Necmettin Erbakan's Welfare Party- may increase
tension over Cyprus.  What effect Welfare will have on the
Turkish-Israeli military pact remains unclear.  In Turkey,
the powerful military glowers behind a facade of democratic
government.  The generals may not allow Erbakan and his
Islamic reformers to break the pact with Israel, though it
has brought a storm of condemnation down on Turkey from the
entire Muslim world.

This is because Turkey's generals need continued American
arms, financial aid, and diplomatic backing.  Being nice to
Israel assures strong support from Israel's friends in
Congress, and the Clinton White House, particularly in an
election year. The Turks believe they can neutralize the
potent Armenian-American lobby, long a thorn in Turkey's
side, by enlisting the more powerful American-Israel lobby.,
Besides, Turkey's dour, Kemalist generals have far more in
common with fellow generals in Israel or Egypt, than they do
with woolly Islamic politicians, whom they dismiss as
dangerous dreamers or fools. These military pashas want more
F-16's and US cash, not sermons on Islam.

Off to the east, Syria and Iraq, formerly deadly enemies,
are currently flirting,  and talking about an alliance,
possibly with Iran.  All three believe the  Clinton
Administration is wholly under the influence of Israel, and
determined to crush them.  Their fears have been heightened
by Israel's rapidly growing domination of Jordan, a longtime
Israeli strategic goal.  Washington seems to be pushing
Jordan into becoming a joint US-Israeli protectorate - as
the US tried to do with Lebanon in the 1980's.

Up north in what's left of demolished Iraq, two mini-Kurdish
states, created by the US and Britain and the end of the
Gulf Crusade against Saddam, are busy fighting one another,
and the Turkish Kurdish PKK.  If Saddam succumbs to lead
poisoning, oil-rich Iraq could splinter, tempting Turkey and
Iran to invade and divvy it up. Even once-secure Saudi
Arabia and the Gulf Emirates are shuddering with growing
unrest.

Adding yet more spice to this dangerous stew, the US and
Israel are openly talking about attacking Iran's nuclear
facilities, and an alleged gas plant in bedraggled Libya.

In short, it's nervous season in the entire eastern
Mediterranean.  Arabs, Israelis, Turks, Persians, Kurds,
Greeks - Man your worry beads!

copyright  Eric Margolis 1996

`Foreign Correspondent' is a registered trademark of Eric
Margolis




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