Re: Oz & economics was Re: France's Hot December - 2

[Adam Rose <adam@xxxxxxxx>]

>
>
> At 09:16 AM 5/23/96 +0000, you wrote:
> >"The US has one. The Europeans have one, and now even Japan has one.
> >What do they all have ? A serious fiscal problem. This is the theme
> >of the decade, one that will shape the rhythm of financial life and
> >form the cacaphonic background sound to political debate in almost
> >every industrial country".
> >
> >Harman locates the cause as the lower rate of growth in the 80s and
> >90's than in the 50's, 60's and 70's ( and which elsewhere he
> >related to the fall in the underlying rate of profit ).
> >
> Adam
>
Gary writes:
>
> But the problem is that most countries are attempting the same thing to
> prdouce exports and reduce imports by lowering the working class'
> consumption power.  Right????
>

Yes.

>From the point of view of the world capitalist system, this is completely
irrational. So what's new ?

The point is, that if any individual country can batter down unit wage costs
by more than its competitors, its industry will out compete the ones which
are less successful. If they can get workers to pay for their own old age,
health, education, etc, they have more to spend on infrastructure, arms,
or whatever, that they can use to attract investment or gain influence.
So they're all forced to do it.

The particular character of this particular "boom" I think is determined by
the high level of debt ( to the point that there has been no boom in Japan
at all - I couldn't say about Oz ).

The last boom managed to temporarilly defy gravity by the massive expansion
of credit. So now, instead of investing at the normal rates for a boom,
there is a massive overhang of public and corporate debt being paid off
( or merely serviced ). This is preventing the boom taking off, let alone
landing [ smoothly or otherwise ]. So as soon as there is any tiny pickup
in economic activity, you have balance of trade problems etc.

>
> Any feed back on this would be very welcome as I am presenting a paper
> sooooon on Marxist politics.
>

I am still opposed to gun control.

But we have a similar sort of issue re: the EU in Britain.

The right are using opposition  to the EU as their rallying cry.
But I think socialists should still be opposed to European Union, as it
will mean cuts galore, a bankers europe. But, we should also oppose
the little Englanders, who are actually more into attacking the
welfare state than the pro EU lot.


Anyway, this issue is having a similar effect to the gun control one you
describe - the government is haemorrhaging to the right as well as the left.

The fundamental cause is that the government is forced to attack all the
people who voted it in, middle class or not. Potentially, both the right +
the left can grow. And of course, the reformists try to stem the rightward
shift by defending the system and pandering to the rightward drift ( eg
Blair [ ugh ! ] has supported Major in his mad cow war ).

Adam.



Adam Rose
SWP
Manchester
UK


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