Re: Socialist advances in Italy!!!

[Jorn Andersen <ccc6639@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Wei En Lin writes:

> Should we not look with anticipation toward the recent
> elections in Italy as heralding in an important new chapter in
> the development of European socialism?

I doubt so.

> Why has no one on this
> discussion list mentioned this election and attempted to
> analyze its historic significance.

That would be a good idea.

> The victory, for the first
> time in Italian history (for the first time in the history of
> any G-7 country) of a party to the LEFT of Craxi's Socialist
> party DESERVES comment.

To the left *and* to the right would be more accurate.


But Wei En Lin is right: The elections in Italy deserves
comment. I have a few for a start - but I will encourage others
to comment and provide more facts than I have :-(

Wei En Lin's approach is IMO very superficial if not
outright wrong. And certainly it is not "an important new chapter
in the development of European socialism". Basically it is about
a center-reformist alliance winning an election in the middle
of a deep crisis in Italian capitalism.

First, I think everyone was relieved that the fascists didn't
win. Had they done so *comment* wouldn't be enough. They
didn't - although they won (2 % I think). They didn't loose.

But I think we have to ask - and answer - some questions:
- Who are the "Uliva" (Olive Tree)?
- Why did they win?
- What are prospects?

But first a sketch of background.
Through the 90's Italian capitalism has been in a deepening
crisis - socially, economically and politically.
Italian capitalism doesn't seem to be able to find a way to
meet the Maastricht demands. High foreign debt and budget
deficit demands severe cuts in wages and social welfare.

Politically the old ruling class parties have collapsed,
notably the Christian Democrats. They were *the* ruling
class party in more than 40 years but a number of corruption
scandals have taken a good part of their leaders to prison.
With them fell the credibility of the political system
as such.

Berlusconi was the "clean man" and won elections in 1994.
In reality he was nothing but old wine on new bottles. Most
people - also on the left - believed his "strong man" rhetoric
and expected him to rule Italy for the next many years. But
8 months later he resigned when faced with large scale
workers' protests: Huge demo's, general strikes.

After Berlusconi the rulers stood naked. But the PDS (former
Communist Party) and the union bureaucracy bailed them out as
they had done so often in the past. They agreed that the new
Dini government could make many of the cuts which Berlusconi
failed to deliver.

As elections became unavoidable two coalitions were made:
The Freedom Alliance with Berlusconi's Forza Italia and
Fini's fascists.
And on the other side (almost) everything to the left of
it with the PDS in a central position but also including
a number of center parties. They call themselves "Uliva"
(The Olive Tree).

The Uliva is no more socialist than the Scandinavian
Social Democratic parties, Mitterands Socialists or Blair's
British Labour Party. Their leader, Prodi, is a former
industrial boss. And the PDS has gone far to the right
and now they advocate capitalist market ideology,
privatizations etc.

Why did they win?
Given the alternative (Berlusconi and his redressed fascist
allies) many workers would prefer the Uliva. But also the
fact that their candidate played a skillful game of openness,
no promises etc. was important. It was a turn to the left
compared to Berlusconis victory two years ago. But it was not
a turn to class politics.

Prospects?
The problems that Berlusconi faced are still there. The
new government will try to make Italian capitalism meet
Maastricht. Those who they intend should pay are the same as
those Berlusconi intended: The workers.

Prodi will try his "Blood, sweat and tears" - the question is:
Will Italian workers accept this? Or will they turn to the
streets or to strikes in their 100.000's as they did against
Berlusconi?

This is yet to be answered. Sure the PDS with their influence
in trade union bureaucracy will do their utmost to make sure
this doesn't happen. And then the problem is: Which political
alternative is available? Which direction will protests go?

On the left the Rifondazione (left wing of former CP and other
leftists) has a good record of building resistance, but they
don't see the struggle from below as the alternative. They
also have an elctoral perspective and accept the market, but
will not go as far as the PDS. The rest of the left is
very small.

If no left alternative to the austerity policies of the Uliva
is provided then Fini's fascists are now free to make any
(maybe even workerist) criticisms from the right.

As when Mitterand won in 1979 in France the risk is that when
reformism is seen as not being able to deliver more people will
turn to the far right parties. It was in the first 10 years of
Mitterand's precidency that Le Pen built his electoral base.

The Uliva has tried very hard to lower expectations but
on the other hand stakes are much higher today - not least in
Italy. The economic crisis is much deeper. The political
system is much more unstable. The fascists are a real force
with about 400.000 members

So far from "heralding in an important new chapter in the
development of European socialism" it is much more likely
to be another temporary interregnum. What comes after is
very much dependent on two factors:
1. The ability of Italian workers to combat this government
>from a class position.
2. The increasing need for a revolutionary socialist party
to provide a political alternative - to the fascists, to
the right in general, but also to the reformless reformist
parties of PDS and Rifondazione.


Yours

Jorn Andersen

IS
Denmark




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