War has broken

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

OK six hours later, my prediction turns out to be right.
Wake up fellow listers in the Americas. Morning and war has
broken. I am sure that few people would have wagered
against me because I guess probably the majority of the list
expected this, but I wanted to use internet to watch reality
unfold and see how far a would be marxist analysis could be
taken.

The news at 7am BST is of shelling of all Krajinan cities and
towns by Croatian forces. No reports here yet of any Croatian
cities being shelled or of any counter move by the Krajinan
Serbs. It is just, just possible that marxist influences within
them are calculating that a negotiation defending peoples human
rights might be the better option than trying to fight a war
they would lose. [cf the rather canny peace deal struck by
the Chechens with the Russians, that I insist in believing must have
had considerable political contribution from genuine democrats
socialists and marxists in it.]

The news is silent at this moment about whether the Croats, under
cover of the shelling, are racing to knock out the emplacements in
Northern Krajina from which Zagreb can be shelled, which I would
think is highly likely.

The nature of the secret soundings which led to Milosovic disavowing
the Krajinan serbs yesterday, will only unfold in due course. The
most hopeful thing to play for is that they included guarantees
against population displacement of Serbs in Krajina and that Croatia would
not attack to reclaim its western boundary of eastern Slavonia, which is
contiguous with Serbia itself.

What is happening is clearly part of a comprehensible process. We are in
middle game. The chaotic, murderous and terrifying land grabs and
expulsions of the first phase, are giving way to show downs between
better organised civil powers. Boundaries will get clarified between
relatively stable areas and in due course trade will start up again.

The advantage of this stage is that all but the most fascist Serbs now
have an interest in respecting human rights. Democrats, socialist, and
marxists within and outside Yugoslavia, could be pressing from different
positions for the maximum respect for human rights in all territories.
This gives the best situation for the ultimate healing of the antagonisms
and the rebirth of cooperation between working people of different
cultures and nationalities.


Chris Burford, London.



>>>>>>
From: Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Fri, 4 Aug 95 01:16:43 BST
Subject: War poised to expand

Well tonight may be the last night before the war in the former
Yugoslavia lurches forward. It is not clear whether
the Krajinan Serbs have been sobered up enough by Milosevic's
disclaiming support, and whether Tudjman thinks he can get more
by negotiating than by going to war in the early hours tomorrow




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