RE: BHA: Emergence

["Marshall Feldman" <marsh@xxxxxxx>]

Dick Moodey wrote:

> [much deleted]
> >For the sake of clarity, I prefer to reserve
> >"emergence" to designate a NECESSARY relation, whereas many of the other
> >meanings discussed above denote either contingent or even accidental
> >relationships (by all accounts, the fact that the WTC collapsed was an
> >accident that nobody, not even the terrorists, planned -- this
> is not to say
> >the terrorists were not delighted at the accidental results -- at a
> >different level, that of the building's mechanics, the collapse was
> >necessary). I also prefer to distinguish emergence between levels from
> >historical, logical, and other forms of emergence. Thus, while the
> >occurrence of a specific configuration of things at one level may be
> >contingent, once we have this configuration there's a necessary
> relationship
> >to other levels. This is not to deny that the other relationships do not
> >exist, it's only to say that we'd gain more clarity if we clearly
> >distinguish between the different meanings of "emergence."
>
> This recommendation makes a great deal of sense, but I have a
> non-Bhaskarian reason for not accepting it.  Lonergan introduced
> the notion
> of "emergent probability," which involves neither a necessary nor an
> accidental relationship between temporal sequences of events, but rather
> changing contingencies.  At time 1, the probability of a future event (E)
> might be very small, but the constellation of events at times 2, 3, ....
> are such that the probability of E gets progressively larger.  This is an
> "emergent probability," or a process in which the probability of the
> emergence of E increases.

Good point, but I think we can add necessity if we approach the topic
carefully. "Emergence," if nothing else, means a relationship between two
things. One point I was trying to make is that synchronic emergence refers
to a relation between two things at different levels, with things at level 1
(e.g., atoms, individuals) combining to make a thing at level 2 (e.g.,
molecules, societies). Now "emergent probability" introduces a degree of
indeterminism, which is fine. Even within a given level, a thing may be
stochastic. My earlier post mentioned quantum mechanics in which subnuclear
particles are energy-mass probability distributions in space. In social
science, game theory is built around the notion of individuals dealing with
each other according to probabilities rather than certainties. So even
disregarding emergence, we should not equate certainty or determinism with
necessity. In the Prisoner's Dilemma problem, with which I'll assume readers
are familiar, the probabilities of getting a lighter or harder sentence
necessarily change as the differences between the two sentences change, but
this still does not mean that they're not probabilities.

You may see where I'm going with this. At any given time, the relation of
emergence between levels 1 and 2 may be one of probabilities: if Moses and
Mary are of two different faiths and get married, their marriage may be
happy or unhappy with probabilities p and 1-p (sorry for the example, with
its heterosexist overtones, but it makes the point particularly clearly --
much of the reason why some parents want their children to hook up with
partners from the same background is that the parents believe the
probabilities of happiness in such situations, q, are > p). This is
certainly an example of an emergent property. (I'm not saying it actually
exists.) While the happiness or unhappiness of the marriage is not
determined with certainty, the PROBABILITIES are. In other words, necessity
here operates at the level of probabilities.

It seems to me that in many fields, ecology, most social science, etc. this
is how we really ought to think anyway.

One could take this into an infinite regress: the probabilities themselves
are the outcomes of stochastic processes and therefore other probabilities,
which themselves are ... . This is why special languages for computer
simulation (like GPSS) were invented.

	Marsh Feldman



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