[A-List] Zimbabwe Faces Wider Sanctions Under Bush Plan

["Yoshie Furuhashi" <critical.montages@xxxxxxxxx>]

<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/world/africa/29diplo.html>
June 29, 2008
Zimbabwe Faces Wider Sanctions Under Bush Plan
By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG and CELIA W. DUGGER

WASHINGTON — President Bush called Saturday for an international arms
embargo against Zimbabwe in the wake of last week's "sham election,"
and announced that the United States is drafting new economic
sanctions that, for the first time, would take aim at the entire
government of President Robert Mugabe.

"The international community has condemned the Mugabe regime's
ruthless campaign of politically motivated violence and intimidation,"
Mr. Bush said in a statement from the presidential retreat at Camp
David, Md., adding that he had directed his secretaries of treasury
and state to develop sanctions "against this illegitimate government
of Zimbabwe and those who support it."

The announcement came a day after Zimbabweans voted in a presidential
runoff that has been widely denounced by Western leaders because of
state-sponsored violence and efforts to intimidate voters with threats
of beatings if they failed to cast their ballots for Mr. Mugabe, the
sole candidate. Dozens of opposition supporters were killed in the
weeks leading to the runoff.

The opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, dropped out of the race,
citing continuing attacks against his supporters, and he later sought
refuge in the Dutch Embassy. By taking the rare step of imposing
sanctions on the government, the United States would put Zimbabwe in a
league with nations like North Korea and Iran — a significant
toughening of current policy toward Zimbabwe. The Bush administration
has already imposed sanctions on Zimbabwe, but they apply only to
about 140 members of the governing elite and the businesses they own
and control.

"This certainly steps up pretty dramatically the scale of punitive
action," said J. Stephen Morrison, who directs the Africa program at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies here, and worked on
Africa issues in the State Department under President Clinton. "It's
long overdue, but having Bush get out there and say some hard things
is very important."

The call for an international arms embargo, which Mr. Bush coupled
with a proposed ban on travel by officials of the Mugabe government,
is unlikely to be successful. American officials said it would almost
certainly run into opposition at the United Nations from South Africa,
Russia and China; South Africa's position has long been that the
Zimbabwe election is an internal affair.

The United States' own sanctions, by contrast, can be carried out
unilaterally. American officials and outside experts said they hope
the sanctions would put pressure on Zimbabwe's mining industry, a
crucial source of foreign exchange for a government that is very short
of it. The sanctions are expected to restrict the government's ability
to do business with American companies, although it is unclear which
agencies or state-controlled businesses would be affected.

Africa experts and human rights advocates have not generally been
calling for sanctions, in part, Mr. Morrison said, because they have
been so focused on trying to tamp down the violence and abuses
surrounding the elections. In Washington, Mr. Morrison and a
colleague, Mark Bellamy, a former ambassador to Kenya, have been
pressing for a diplomatic offensive to create an international
consensus that Mr. Mugabe must be ousted.

Zimbabwe's opposition spokesman, Nelson Chamisa, asked whether his
party favored sanctions, would say only that it sought intensified
international pressure. It seems likely that the opposition is
reluctant to demand sanctions for fear of playing into Mr. Mugabe's
hands. The state media, daily, in story after story, blame the limited
sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on the Zimbabwean
elite for having led to the country's economic ruin.

It is almost certain that Mr. Mugabe will argue that any new sanctions
are part of a Western plot to topple him.

It is unclear how much pain that sanctions would actually inflict on
the Mugabe government, especially if Zimbabwe continues to get support
from countries like South Africa and China.

A senior American official said Saturday that the decision on the
United States' sanctions had been made in the previous 48 hours, and
research on how to carry them out had just begun. Although officials,
for instance, said sanctions might allow the United States to freeze
Zimbabwean assets in American banks, it was unclear if such assets
existed.

Arvind Ganesam, director of the business and human rights program at
Human Rights Watch, said sanctions on mining could have a significant
impact, depending on how they were worded. "As long as the government
can draw on mining revenues, it's got a revenue stream independent of
its own population," he said. "And as long as it has access to those
assets it can be as irresponsible as it wants."

United States officials said the sanctions, which would take at least
two weeks to draw up, could still be averted if Mr. Mugabe installs
what the United States considers a legitimate government. Mr.
Tsvangirai drew 48 percent of the votes in the general election in
March, to Mr. Mugabe's 43 percent, but the runoff was called because
neither side had a majority.

"We don't have a government in Zimbabwe that reflects the will of the
people; the pressure has to be ratcheted up," said Gordon D. Johndroe,
a deputy White House press secretary and spokesman for Mr. Bush's
national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley.

The results of Friday's runoff are expected to be announced as early as Sunday.

In making the statement about sanctions, Mr. Bush was defying warnings
last week by the African National Congress, South Africa's governing
party, to stay out of Zimbabwe's business.

The White House had been monitoring the situation all week. On Monday
Mr. Bush's top advisers on Africa briefed him. On Wednesday, he met at
the White House with the permanent representatives to the United
Nations Security Council, and later called on the African Union to
"continue to remind the world that this election is not free and it's
not fair."

On Friday night, Mr. Hadley briefed Mr. Bush again. By that time, the
United States had already begun discussions with its European allies
in the Security Council about possible sanctions. American officials
circulated a draft resolution Friday that would include an arms
embargo and travel and financial restrictions on important members of
the government, diplomats said.

The sanctions would extend to individuals who "engaged in or provided
support for actions or policies to undermine democratic processes or
institutions in Zimbabwe including having ordered, planned or
participated in acts of politically-motivated violence," the draft
reads, according to one diplomat who read aloud from the document but
requested anonymity for sharing it.

South Africa has torpedoed most attempts to criticize Zimbabwe.
Dumisani Kumalo, South Africa's ambassador to the United Nations, said
last week that the Council should not weigh in before the African
heads of state at an African Union summit in Egypt on Monday.

"It's an African issue," he said.

Although the proposed embargo seems destined to fail, Mr. Morrison
said the push at the United Nations could increase pressure on the
international community. "The fact that they're willing to push it and
embarrass people and make them uncomfortable is a good thing," he
said. "It will stigmatize the arms transactions; it will get the
Chinese to think twice; it will perhaps get others to think twice."

Sheryl Gay Stolberg reported from Washington, and Celia W. Dugger from
Johannesburg. Neil MacFarquhar contributed reporting from New York.