[A-List] ZIMBABWE: Aid Will Flow If Mugabe Goes

["Yoshie Furuhashi" <critical.montages@xxxxxxxxx>]

They lie, of course. -- Yoshie

<http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=78946>
ZIMBABWE: Aid will flow if Mugabe goes

JOHANNESBURG, 25 June 2008 (IRIN) - As the sole remaining candidate in
Zimbabwe's presidential election run-off on 27 June, Robert Mugabe
should win. But then what?

"The most likely scenario is that Mugabe will go ahead with Friday's
election and win it," said political analyst Brian Raftopolous. The
economy would continue to decline, as little in the way of aid,
investment or reforms would be forthcoming to help the country back on
its feet, he added.

John Clancy, spokesman for Louis Michel, the European Commissioner for
Development and Humanitarian Aid, commented: "Certain minimum
international standards of democracy and human rights have to be in
place [before significant aid can be provided]. Only then can we work
hand-in-hand with the government on a [development] programme."

Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the main opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC), Mugabe's only challenger, has dropped out of
the race, saying he needed to save the lives of his supporters, who
have become targets of the ruling-party militia. According to the MDC,
more than 86 of its supporters have been killed since the general
elections on 29 March, in which the MDC won a parliamentary majority.

The international community, through the UN Security Council, has
already indicated that it does "not regard Friday's election as
legitimate", said Pascal Richard, coordinator of Zimbabwe Watch, a
lobby group based in the Netherlands. The United States has announced
that it will not accept the outcome of the presidential run-off on 27
June.

But if post-election negotiations led to a transitional government of
national unity involving Tsvangirai or the MDC, that could complicate
the international response.

One Western diplomat told IRIN that lines of credit would remain
closed to any government of national unity with Mugabe in the picture.
"Basically, the re-establishment of economic relations can only happen
under a new government; under Mugabe, the government would continue
with its atrocious human rights record and destructive policies," he
said.

"It is evident that even under the proposed government of national
unity, Mugabe wants to come in as head of that set-up, which again
would be unacceptable because he used violence which resulted in the
capitulation of the opposition and the subsequent pulling out of the
MDC candidate from the presidential election run-off."

But Clancy offered an alternative interpretation. "We at the EU would
support some form of negotiated transitional government, i.e. a
power-sharing scenario," he said. "We want to avoid a black-hole
scenario [in which political reforms are made] but support structures
are not there, and the situation gets worse. We would be ready to step
in and prop up [a transitional government]."

Regional isolation

Zimbabwe Watch's Richard pointed out that many members of the Southern
African Development Community (SADC) had moved beyond the question of
legitimacy of the run-off on Friday 27 June and were concerned about
the region's security, a concern that was also raised in the UN
Security Council.

''Zimbabwe has the potential to recover reasonably quickly from the
crisis, but it really does depend on factors that are outside of our
control''
It is estimated that between three million and five million
Zimbabweans have fled repression and economic decline in their home
country to seek safety and a better life in South Africa, the regional
superpower, but recent xenophobic attacks in South Africa have forced
many to turn to neighbouring Zambia and Botswana instead. "None of
these countries can handle the influx of migrants," Richard noted.

"If he [Mugabe] goes ahead with the election he could face regional
isolation, with the possible exception of South Africa, which still
believes it can negotiate with Mugabe," said Eleanor Sisulu,
coordinator in South Africa of the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, an
umbrella body for more than 200 Zimbabwean non-governmental
organisations (NGOs).

"We could have a situation similar to Burma, except that Zimbabwe is a
landlocked country and is dependant on its neighbours." Zimbabwe also
depends on South Africa and Mozambique for its power needs.

To prop up

Paul Wolfowitz, former president of the World Bank, noted in an
article in the Wall Street Journal on 25 June that the international
community would have to pledge its financial support to a new
Zimbabwean government in a post-Mugabe scenario.

Even if Tsvangirai were to become president, "he would still face a
daunting set of problems: restoring an economy in which hyperinflation
has effectively destroyed the currency and unemployment is a
staggering 70 percent; getting emergency food aid to millions who are
at risk of starvation and disease; promoting reconciliation after the
terrible violence; and undoing Mugabe's damaging policies without
engendering a violent backlash," Wolfowitz wrote.

The World Bank would only begin lending money to the Zimbabwean
government after it had put in place a recovery programme, with a
strategy to clear its arrears of just under US$0.6 billion it owes the
bank, Mungai Lenneiye, the bank's acting country manager, told IRIN
earlier this year.

Lenneiye said the Zimbabwean government had already outlined a draft
"Stabilisation and Short-Term Recovery Programme" (SSTRP) for
implementation in 2008, aimed at achieving macro-economic stability
and restoring production.

"The SSTRP outlines government's intentions to move towards a unified
exchange rate, removal of price distortions in the economy, and
restoration of agricultural production as a first step to bring down
the very high rate of inflation," Lenneiye said. Zimbabwe's inflation
rate is estimated at well over a million percent.

If the SSTRP is "successfully implemented, without major slippages,
much progress could be achieved within the following five years,"
Lenneiye noted. "Zimbabwe has an abundant supply of minerals, rich
agricultural land, and skilled personnel [although many have left to
work in South Africa, the UK and other countries with stable
economies] and this is a good basis for a quick turn-around in the
right policy environment."

The turn-around would hinge on government's commitment to market-based
economic reform, Lenneiye said, "but it can be greatly assisted by the
availability of a predictable inflow of Balance of Payments support,
restored donor assistance, and foreign direct investments [including
remittances from Zimbabweans in the diaspora]".

Clancy said the EU would have to look at "the short, medium and long
term, and structure assistance accordingly. The immediate needs would
be the humanitarian sphere, and we would need to evaluate, with our
humanitarian partners like the UN, to see where emergency funding
would be needed."

According to a recent joint assessment by the UN Food and Agriculture
Organisation and the World Food Programme, at least five million
Zimbabweans will be in need of food by September. "Zimbabwe does not
have the capacity to feed its people," said Richard.

Clancy maintained that "Zimbabwe has the potential to recover
reasonably quickly from the crisis, but it really does depend on
factors that are outside of our control", and said a donor conference
to help Zimbabwe recover could be possible.

Wolfowitz suggested that a non-Western institution, such as the
African Development Bank, might take the lead in summoning a Friends
of Zimbabwe conference that could include wealthy oil-producing
countries, and possibly China and India, which have shown a new
interest in Africa.