[A-List] Whither Zimbabwe?

["Yoshie Furuhashi" <critical.montages@xxxxxxxxx>]

Which way will Zimbabwe go?

* The government of national unity (which will combine the worst
qualities of both the ZANU-PF and the MDC but has the virtue of
potentially ending political violence and perhaps also lifting the
sanctions), brokered by the South African government and the Southern
African Development Community, with approval of the Western
governments.  This appeared the most likely outcome in the immediate
aftermath of the first round of the presidential elections this year
(cf. <http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/world/africa/02zimbabwe.html>),
but apparently the negotiations broke down, and government repression
has escalated.

* The West makes a direct military intervention in, or has African
peace-keepers sent to, Zimbabwe, on the pretext of preventing a
"Rwanda-style genocide" (Paddy Ashdown,
<http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4201084.ece>)
or to ensure fair elections.  If it does, Zimbabwe may become like
East Timor.

* The West helps the MDC set up a government in exile.

* The MDC employs a mass action campaign to oust the ZANU-PF
government largely on its own.  That's the option that socialists in
Zimbabwe such as International Socialist Organization members argue
for (cf. <http://links.org.au/node/489>), but this is highly unlikely.
 Even if it did and won, it would be unlikely to put into practice the
kind of policy favored by the rank and file of the ZCTU, let alone
those who want to have Robert Mugabe's "flawed land reform effort to
be fixed to work, not for it to be reversed" (Chido Makunike, "The
Complexities of Zimbabwe,"
<http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/makunike040508.html>).  The Zambian
experience, and others like it, may be instructive.+

* The MDC turns to armed struggle, which Wole Soyinka for instance
says is justified (cf.
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/check/worldservice/meta/dps/2008/06/080621_soyinka_nh_lh?nbram=1&nbwm=1&bbram=1&bbwm=1&size=au&lang=en-ws&bgc=003399&ls=>),
but this, too, is highly unlikely, not to mention unwise.

+ <http://cas1.elis.rug.ac.be/avrug/pdf02/zeilig01.pdf>
Zimbabwe after the elections
Leo Zeilig & Peter Dwyer
January 2002

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

In Zambia in 1991 there was a mass movement that lead to the formation
of the Movement for Multi-party Democracy. It came from the trade
union movement and was led by Frederick Chiluba, president of the
Zambia Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU). There were fierce arguments in
April 1990 with Chiluba representing the centrist-wing of the party
and socialists who argued that the MMD must be a workers party –
promoting the poor and working class. As Azwell Banda, one of those
who argued with Chiluba, said, "In April 1990 I spent days with
Chiluba at his home trying to persuade him to participate in creating
a workers'organization capable of taking over from Kaunda, but he had
other ideas." Within a very brief period the party came to power in
elections that were held in 1991.

The party then proceeded to introduce structural adjustment. The trade
union movement that gave birth to the party was ravaged. The main
federation split, there was the hemorrhaging of hundreds of thousands
of member, the trade unions was deeply divided, many regarding
cooperation with the government a safer bet. Opponents of the regime
were persecuted as ruthlessly as the regime that they had replaced.
Some socialists went into exile, one argued, "Our fundamental mistake,
on the left in the MMD, was not to unite as a solid group and to rally
labour to our side."
---
Yoshie