[A-List] Primary Loss and Furor Over Ex-Pastor Hurt Obama in Poll

["Yoshie Furuhashi" <critical.montages@xxxxxxxxx>]

Just a couple of months ago, Obama seemed to be on the verge of
nailing the Democratic Party nomination.  It now looks like Obama is
forever branded as too "yuppie" for white industrial workers, for whom
change under neoliberal capitalism can only mean a declining living
standard, and too "Black" and "left-wing" (if only through "guilt by
free association") for the racially anxious.  -- Yoshie

<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/us/politics/30cnd-poll.html>
April 30, 2008
Primary Loss and Furor Over Ex-Pastor Hurt Obama in Poll
By ROBIN TONER and MEGAN THEE

WASHINGTON — Senator Barack Obama's aura of inevitability in the
battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished in
the wake of his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and the furor over
his former pastor, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News
Poll.

The poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday, largely before Mr.
Obama's news conference on Tuesday denouncing his former pastor,
Reverend Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and may not fully capture the impact
of that controversy or the response.

But the survey found that Mr. Obama, whose lead in the race for the
delegates needed to secure the nomination has given him a commanding
position over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton since February, is now
perceived to be in a much tighter fight. Fifty-one percent of
Democratic voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their party's
nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight percent of
Democrats say Mr. Obama is the candidate with the best chance of
beating Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, down
from 56 percent a month ago.

Mr. Obama still holds an edge over Mrs. Clinton on several key
measures; for example, 46 percent of the Democratic primary voters say
he remains their choice for the nomination, while 38 percent preferred
Mrs. Clinton, who has lost support among men in recent weeks. On that
question, his margin actually grew, to eight from three points, over
the past month.

Mr. Obama also has an advantage over Mrs. Clinton in ratings on
honesty and integrity, in sharing the values of most Americans and in
being less beholden to special interest groups.

But a month of political upheaval — including a nearly 10-point loss
to Mrs. Clinton in Pennsylvania — has taken a toll, and not just on
Mr. Obama: fifty-six percent of Democrats described their party as
divided. In contrast, 60 percent of Republicans see their party as
unified, a striking turnaround from the Republican turmoil at the
start of the primary season.

Adding to the volatility of this race is the economy. Anxiety over
these bread and butter issues, already high a month ago, has continued
to climb. More than 4 in 10 voters cited the economy as the one issue
they want the candidates to address, up from 30 percent in a CBS News
Poll in mid-March. (Only the war in Iraq, cited by 17 percent, came
close.)

Democrats see no early end to the Obama-Clinton battle, the poll
found. About 7 in 10 Democratic voters predict that their party's
nominee will not be decided before the convention. And a plurality of
voters say this will eventually hurt the Democratic Party's chances
against Mr. McCain in November.

"I don't think either one of them would ever concede," said Andrew
Antonucci, a 66-year-old Democrat and retired firefighter from
Arlington, Mass., in a follow-up interview. "It'll go down to the
wire."

Robert Mobley, 28, a Democrat and motor coach operator in Orlando,
Fla., said, "People can't figure out who they want to choose. Sadly, I
don't think it's really a political issue. I think it's more like a
"what kind of history do we want to set" issue. Do we want to break
the race barrier or the gender barrier?"

Still, there is resistance to the idea of party leaders stepping in to
resolve the fight. Even among Democrats who said a lengthy battle
would hurt the party, a majority said the contest should continue
until one candidate clearly wins the delegate count.

The poll was conducted as Mr. Wright dominated political news with a
series of speeches and appearances; among other incendiary claims, he
suggested that the United States was attacked by terrorists because it
had itself engaged in terrorism.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 1,065 adults, of whom
956 were registered to vote; it has a margin of sampling error of plus
or minus 3 percentage points over all, and plus or minus 5 percentage
points among Democrats alone.

The survey suggests a very competitive race this November regardless
of who the Democrats nominate. In a head-to-head race between Mr.
Obama and Mr. McCain, both candidates are backed by 45 percent of the
registered voters. In a race between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain, 48
percent back Mrs. Clinton, while 43 percent back Mr. McCain.

The weakening economy appears likely to play a critical role in the
campaign, the poll found. The issue showed up in personal ways: As
food and gas prices soar, more Americans say they are having a hard
time saving or buying extras. Thirty-eight percent said they could do
so in February, just 27 percent in the latest poll.

President Bush continues to get low marks on his overall job
performance, with just 21 percent approving of his handling of the
economy. Given those ratings, Mr. McCain faces a political challenge
in establishing his own identity: About half of all voters say they
expect him to continue Mr. Bush's policies if elected, while another 2
in 10 say he will have policies that are even more conservative.

His challenge also shows up on foreign policy: A majority of voters
said they preferred the next president to try to end the war in Iraq
within the next few years; they overwhelmingly said it was more
important to have a nominee who is flexible about withdrawing the
troops, rather than someone committed to staying in Iraq until the
United States succeeds.

On the Democratic side, Mr. Obama's and Mrs. Clinton's supporters are
digging in, with two-thirds in each camp saying they "strongly
support" their candidates. But Democrats are open to the idea of a
Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton ticket. About 6 in 10 Democrats said
they would like to see the eventual winner take the other candidate as
their running mate.

Each of the three remaining presidential candidates has clear
strengths and weaknesses. More voters have confidence in the ability
of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain to "wisely" handle an international
crisis than feel that way about Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain,
on the other hand, get higher ratings than Mrs. Clinton when it comes
to "having more honesty and integrity than most people in public
life."

And both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama edge out Mr. McCain when it comes
to caring about the needs and problems of average Americans.

Republicans are already trying to portray Mr. Obama as a liberal who
is outside the mainstream of American values, but the poll suggests
that — at least so far — he is not viewed that way by most Americans.
Nearly two-thirds of registered voters said they believe he shares
their values, about the same number who felt that way about Mr. McCain
(58 percent said Mrs. Clinton shared their values).

But Mr. Obama has vulnerabilities. Only 29 percent of registered
voters said they considered him "very patriotic," compared with 40
percent who described Mrs. Clinton that way. Mr. McCain, a former
prisoner of war, was considered "very patriotic" by 70 percent of the
registered voters.

The underlying political landscape continues to favor the Democrats,
despite their current divisions. Over all, 52 percent of adults said
they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, compared with 33
percent who felt positively about the Republican Party.

The Democratic Party was viewed as better able to handle the economy,
more likely share the respondent's moral values, more likely to
improve the health care system and more likely to make the right
decisions about the war in Iraq. The Republicans, however, maintained
their advantaged in ensuring that American military defenses were
strong.

Marina Stefan, Marjorie Connelly and Dalia Sussman contributed reporting.

-- 
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>