Re: [A-List] China, U.S. Make Plans for North Korea Collapse, Reports Say

["Yoshie Furuhashi" <critical.montages@xxxxxxxxx>]

On Jan 11, 2008 11:25 AM, Sabri Oncu <sabri_oncu@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Any comments? Sabri
>
> ++++++
>
> China, U.S. Make Plans for North Korea Collapse, Reports Say
> By Bradley K. Martin
>
> Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China and the U.S.-South Korean alliance have begun
> planning for military intervention in case the Kim Jong Il regime in North
> Korea collapses, according to two newly published studies -- one of which
> foresees a race to occupy and control the impoverished communist country.
>
> ``If the international community did not react in a timely manner as internal
> order in North Korea deteriorated rapidly, China would seek to take the
> initiative in restoring stability,'' says a Jan. 3 report by Washington's
> Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Institute of Peace.
>
> The report says its unnamed Chinese sources see North Korea as stable for the
> moment, ``but they worry that the potential for instability may grow.''
<snip>
> China's Reaction
>
> A Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman on Jan. 8 denied knowledge of the plan,
> according to Agence France Press. ``I have never heard of nor seen the
> so-called plan mentioned in the report,'' AFP cited the spokeswoman saying.
>
> Regarding nuclear-related contingencies, ``some Chinese experts say explicitly
> that they favor holding a discussion on stability in North Korea in official
> channels with the United States,'' the report says.
>
> China is the organizer and host of ongoing talks with the U.S., North and South
> Korea, Japan and Russia on denuclearizing the North.

This "news" comes in response to the fact that North Korea missed the
latest deadline for disclosure of its nuclear arms program in the six
party talks, against which Washington has no realistic means to
retaliate due to the Chinese objection, except propaganda like this.

See, for instance:

Choe Sang-hun and Steven Lee Myers, "North Korea Says Earlier
Disclosure Was Enough," 5 January 2008,
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/05/world/asia/05korea.html>;

"North Korea's failure to meet a deadline to declare its nuclear
activities should be confronted with patience and perseverance, a
senior American envoy said here on Monday" (Reuters, "North Korea
Given Time to Send Data," 8 January 2008,
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/world/asia/08korea.html>);

and

Choe Sang-hun, "U.S. Nuclear Envoy Puts Gentle Pressure on North
Korea," 11 January 2008,
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/11/world/asia/11nkorea.html>.

The CSIS/US IoP study, "Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor" (Bonnie
Glaser,Scott Snyder, John S. Park, 27 December 2008,
<http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/071227_wp_china_northkorea.pdf>),
itself, on which this "news" story is based, does not say that North
Korea is on the brink of collapse.  Rather, it is likely to be stable
in the short term, especially according to Chinese experts it cites:

"There has been little substantial change in North Korea's overall
economic situation during the past year, but the expansion of consumer
markets at the grassroots level appears to have eased any urgent sense
of crisis within the North Korean system" (p. 12);

"Chinese analysts who have recently made extended tours in North Korea
give impressionistic accounts of increased dynamism in North Korean
markets, but do not characterize those markets as "prosperous." For
instance, Chinese visitors report improved electricity supply, more
newborn babies visible in public, improved clothing and morale among
the general public, and greater independence in obtaining extra food.
The expansion of the markets as the primary means by which citizens
meet their own daily needs is apparently a dominant factor accounting
for these improvements." (p. 13);

"Chinese analysts widely assert that the North Korean system remains
stable and are confident that it will remain so for at least several
years absent the sudden death of Kim Jong Il or external interference
aimed at destabilizing the regime" (p. 15);

and

"Chinese experts emphasize that the North Korean political control
system remains effective, despite an admitted increase in information
from the outside" (p. 16).

Why should China worry?
-- 
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>