[A-List] SCO: Russia, Iran Consolidate Strategic Ties

["Tony B." <tal1@xxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: Rick Rozoff
To: Stop NATO
Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2008 11:30 PM
Subject: [stopnato] SCO: Russia, Iran Consolidate Strategic Ties


http://www.hindu.com/2008/01/07/stories/2008010762321000.htm

The Hindu
January 7, 2008

Russia-Iran ties on the upswing
Vladimir Radyuhin

Vladimir Putin has seized the opportunity offered by
the changing landscape around Iran to upgrade
bilateral relations across the board

-Russia has strongly supported Iran's membership in
the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Addressing a
New Year press conference in Moscow, Russia's Deputy
Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov revealed that the
SCO will "soon" end its moratorium on expansion and
consider admission of new members. He made it clear
that Iran, which has an observer status in the SCO,
would be a prime candidate for full membership. He
said Iran's involvement in the SCO was essential for
"effective solution of problems."
-Mr. Putin must have offered Dr. Singh his frank
reading of the situation: the U.S. overreach in Iraq
offers a unique chance for making strategic gains in
the region by forging closer ties with Iran. Has India
chosen to play up to the U.S. and miss the chance?

Consolidation of strategic ties between Russia and
Iran was one of the most significant events in 2007.

A breakthrough came when Vadimir Putin visited Tehran
in October to become the first Russian leader since
Joseph Stalin to set foot on Iranian soil.

Mr. Putin is reported to have told Iranian Supreme
leader Ayatollah Khamenei that Russia was ready to
"expand ties without limitations" with Iran. This
offer closely resonated with a proposal to form a
strategi c alliance against common enemies that the
Ayatollah made to the then Russian Security Council
Secretary, Igor Ivanov, when he visited Tehran in
February 2007.

It took Moscow eight months to respond because it
insisted on synchronising the all-round expansion and
deepening of Russian-Iranian ties with Iran's steps to
answer the outstanding questions on its nuclear
programme. Mr. Putin did not avail himself of a
long-standing invitation to visit Tehran till after
Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
agreed in August on a "work plan" to clarify Tehran's
past centrifuge development work.

A few weeks after Mr. Putin's historic visit, Iran
handed over to the IAEA details on its P-2 centrifuge
work, prompting IAEA Director Mohamed El Baradei to
say Iran was making "good progress" towards resolving
the outstanding questions.

On December 3, the U.S. released a National
Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report that cleared Iran
of the charge of pursuing a nuclear weapons programme.
Significantly, the report which signalled Washington's
retreat from the military option, had been kept under
wraps for over a year.

On the same day, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became
the first Iranian leader to attend the Gulf
Cooperation Council summit in Doha.

The next day, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National
Security Council Saeed Jalili was in Moscow to meet
Mr. Putin. Mr. Jalili told the Russian President that
the Iranian leadership was committed to building
"long-term, strategic and future-oriented" relations
with Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
said after the meeting that the Iranian envoy had
pledged to answer all outstanding questions of the
IAEA "in the nearest time possible."

On December 13, Russia and Iran reached an agreement
on a timetable for the completion of the Bushehr
nuclear plant, which had been dogged by repeated
delays and a row over payment.

On December 16, Russia shipped the first consignment
of uranium fuel to Bushehr. On December 17, the Al
Qaeda leader - number two - Ayman Al Zawahiri
denounced Iran in a video for backing off from its
support to Iraqi Shia attacks on U.S. troops. In the
last days of 2007, a second batch of fuel rods was
delivered to the Iranian plant. By the end of
February, the reactor will be fully stocked with fuel
needed to start it up. Russian officials said this
could happen before the end of 2008.

The sequence of events shows that Mr. Putin seized the
opportunity offered by the changing landscape around
Iran and worked towards consolidating the changes.
Russia moved to upgrade bilateral relations with Iran
across the board.

Iranian reports said the two countries were discussing
130 economic projects worth over $100 billion and
aimed at boosting bilateral trade from the current $2
billion to $200 billion in the next 10 years.

Energy will account for much of the planned growth in
ties. Russia and Iran hold between them about 20 per
cent of the global oil reserves and 42 per cent of
natural gas.

Russian oil and gas companies are already involved in
Iranian hydrocarbon projects, and the Russian-Iranian
trade commission at its meeting in Moscow on December
13 discussed plans to set up a joint gas venture to
explore deposits in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia.
The JV could undertake, according to Russian energy
officials, the construction of the Iran-Pakistan-India
pipeline.

Energy axis

An energy axis between Russia and Iran could
eventually lead to the establishment of a gas OPEC
lobbied by Tehran and favourably viewed by Moscow.
This will have a profound impact on strategic
equations in the region.

Russia is keen on directing Iran's gas exports to Asia
and keeping the European market for itself.

Energy underpins an emerging strategic triangle
comprising Russia, Iran and China.

The latter has signed multibillion-dollar energy deals
to buy Iranian oil and liquefied natural gas and may
also be at the receiving end of proposed gas pipelines
from Iran. If the IPI project comes through, it can be
extended to China; otherwise a Turkmenistan-China gas
pipeline scheduled to be built before the end of 2008
can be connected to Iran (this will merely require
reversing current gas flows from Turkmenistan to Iran
via an existing pipeline between the two countries).

Russia has agreed to strengthen Iran's military
muscle. Following his talks in Tehran last month, head
of the Russian Federal Service for Military and
Technical Cooperation (FSMTC) Mikhail Dmitriyev said
defence ties between the two countries "reinforce
stability in the region."

Russia has also encouraged Iran's deeper involvement
in multilateral arrangements in the region.

Moscow and Tehran see eye to eye on many regional
issues. Both are opposed to U.S. plans to build oil
and gas pipelines on the Caspian Sea bed bypassing
Russia and Iran, and both want the sustainable energy
security in Central Asia and the Caspian to be the
prerogative of the region's nations.

The Caspian Summit in Tehran on October 15-16, which
provided a convenient pretext for Mr. Putin's visit to
Iran, supported Iran's initiative to set up an
economic cooperation organisation of the Caspian
nations. The new body will hold its first meeting in
the Russian city of Astrakhan on the Caspian Sea later
this year. In a major boost for Tehran, the Caspian
states ruled out the use of their territories for
attack against Iran.

Russia has strongly supported Iran's membership in the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Addressing a New
Year press conference in Moscow, Russia's Deputy
Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov revealed that the
SCO will "soon" end its moratorium on expansion and
consider admission of new members. He made it clear
that Iran, which has an observer status in the SCO,
would be a prime candidate for full membership. He
said Iran's involvement in the SCO was essential for
"effective solution of problems."

Mr. Putin's offer of strategic partnership with Iran
has a rider: it must renounce the nuclear weapons
option.

Following a new round of infighting in the Iranian
leadership, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali
Larijani, a moderate close to Ayatollah Khamenei, was
replaced by a former member of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Saeed Jalili, a
hard-line ally of President Ahmadinejad. However,
Tehran's continued cooperation with IAEA indicated
that moderates have gained the upper hand, at least
for now.

Strategic tie-up with Russia is too tempting an option
for Iran to turn down. With Russia's help, it can
advance its cherished goal of achieving regional
supremacy and extending its strategic reach to Central
Asia and beyond. At the same time, Iran wants to keep
the nuclear option open. Moscow has firmly linked
further defence and nuclear energy cooperation with
Iran to progress in its interaction with IAEA.

On December 23, Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa
Mohammad Najjar announced that Russia would supply
Iran deadly S-300 anti-missile systems, which will
dramatically increase its ability to repulse air or
missile attacks by the U.S. or Israel.

Russian defence sources confirmed the report but the
country's top weapons export authority, FSMTC, issued
a denial. However, it did not deny the deal as such
but said: "The delivery of S-300 air defence missiles
. is not on the agenda and is not being discussed with
the Iranian side at this moment."

Once again, Moscow is dangling the carrot. It remains
to be seen if Mr. Putin's preferred successor, Dmitry
Medvedev, will display the same diplomatic skills as
Mr. Putin has done in dealing with Iran.

Russia's strategic rapprochement with Iran stands out
in stark contrast with New Delhi's stagnant relations
with Tehran.

This may be a further indication that New Delhi is
drifting away from Moscow.

India has developed cold feet on the IPI project and
the State Bank of India has banned letters of credit
for Iranian firms in support of U.S.' unilateral
sanctions on Iran. Iran figured prominently in Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh's discussions with Mr. Putin
during their summit in Moscow last November, according
to Indian officials.

Considering the fact that Russia has a vital stake in
getting India on board on Iran, Mr. Putin must have
offered Dr. Singh his frank reading of the situation:
the U.S. overreach in Iraq offers a unique chance for
making strategic gains in the region by forging closer
ties with Iran. Has India chosen to play up to the
U.S. and miss the chance?

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