[A-List] French Center-Right Looks Set for Solid Majority in Parliament

["Yoshie Furuhashi" <critical.montages@xxxxxxxxx>]

<http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/08/africa/france.php>
French center-right looks set for solid majority in Parliament
By Katrin Bennhold
Friday, June 8, 2007

PARIS: President Nicolas Sarkozy's center-right camp appears assured
of winning a majority in parliamentary elections on Sunday and on June
17. Barring a political earthquake, the only question is how big that
majority will be and what he will do with it.

Since Sarkozy became president last month, opinion polls have given
his Union for a Popular Movement party between 360 and 430 seats in
the 577-seat National Assembly.

"The choice is between a blue wave or a blue tsunami," said Stéphane
Rozès, head of political research at the CSA polling institute,
referring to the Popular Movement's traditional color. "Either way,
French voters will allow Sarkozy to consolidate his power."

It will be the first time in nearly three decades that a parliamentary
majority is re-elected, highlighting the extent to which the president
represents a break with the past even within the Gaullist movement.
The last government, in which Sarkozy served as finance and interior
minister, was deeply unpopular. But by vowing to implement an agenda
of far-reaching change he differentiated himself from his predecessor,
Jacques Chirac.

If his first month in office is any guidance, Sarkozy will not waste any time.

His government has drawn up a number of bills he plans to pass during
an extraordinary parliamentary session this summer - notably an €11
billion, or $14.6 billion, draft law that envisages tax cuts,
including a proposal to exempt overtime from taxes to effectively do
away with the 35-hour week.

In the past, the reformist zeal of French politicians has often been
dampened by street protests. But unlike Chirac, for example, who
backed down on reforms at least twice, Sarkozy told voters about his
reform ideas before the election and asked for a mandate to implement
them. Nearly 85 percent turned out in the presidential election and 53
percent of them voted for him.

He has held several meetings with union leaders in recent weeks. But
his main strategy to assure smooth passage of his reforms, his
advisers say, is to win a landslide in the legislative elections.
Eleven of his 15 ministers are running and Sarkozy vowed that they
would have to resign if they did not win their seats. (Only one, Alain
Juppé, the minister of sustainable development, faces a real
possibility of defeat.) This week the president pledged again to stick
to his policy plans and urged voters to back him. "Because the changes
will be far-reaching, I need a large majority," he said in an
interview with the newspaper Le Figaro that was published Thursday.

Sarkozy has outmaneuvered rival parties on the left and in the center
over the past month. In a bid to squeeze the newly founded centrist
party of François Bayrou, he created a centrist annex to his own party
and invited most of Bayrou's former allies to join it. In a move to
weaken the Socialist Party, he named four leftists to his government
and hinted that he might appoint a few more after the legislative
ballot.

The winner-takes-all electoral system has also helped his quest. His
Union for a Popular Movement is credited with about 42 percent of the
national vote, compared with 30 percent for the Socialists and 10
percent for Bayrou's centrists.

But 42 percent translates into at least 68 percent of the seats in
Parliament and possibly as much as 75 percent.

A triumph for Sarkozy's camp is considered so much of a foregone
conclusion that the latest surveys show a slight improvement for the
opposition Socialist Party because center-right voters see less reason
to vote. Still, two days before the first round of voting, many
observers predicted that the new president would reach his unofficial
objective of making the symbolic 400-seat mark.
--
Yoshie