[A-List] The Ottoman Empire May Rise Again

[Sabri Oncu <sabri_oncu@xxxxxxxxx>]

This comes from the World Systems list by way of Boris Stremlin. At the moment I do not know where this article was published but I am sending it to the list nevertheless. Interesting article.

Sabri

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The Ottoman Empire May Rise Again 
By Carlton Meyer 
Jun/06/2007 

The conflict in Iraq draws tremendous media attention, yet one of the biggest problems is rarely mentioned. Turkey has made it clear that an independent Kurdistan will not be tolerated, and that it will ensure the safety of the million ethnic "Turkmen" residing in northern Iraq should chaos erupt. There are some 200,000 Turkish troops now positioned just north of the Iraqi border that may invade northern Iraq within the next few months. A Turkish invasion may seem drastic and risky, but not if their true motives are considered— nationalism and oil. 

Iraq was part of the Turkish "Ottoman" Empire until the victorious British seized Arab "Mesopotamia" during World War I. Britain was keen on securing oil fields and formed a puppet kingdom it named "Iraq." A few years later, the British learned of major oil deposits in the areas around Mosul and Kirkuk to the north, and demanded control of that area as well. The weak Turkish government protested since Arabs were a minority in that border province and the border issue had been settled. The case went to the League of Nations, which sided with Britain and its powerful oil companies. 
Turkey regained military strength as it avoided involvement in World War II. After the war, the USA recognized its strategic value to block Soviet moves southward. It was invited to join NATO and provided with advanced weaponry and training. With a current population of 71 million and modern equipment, Turkey has the most powerful military in the Muslim world.[1] It spends a much larger share of its GDP on its military than European nations, because Turks remain angry at their humiliating military defeat, Western occupation, and dissolution of their empire less than a century ago. 

Since 1984, Turkey has faced a domestic security threat from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a Kurdish separatist group that has rebelled against what it perceives as Ankara's mistreatment of the Kurds, who comprise an estimated 15 percent of Turkey's population. Turkey cracked down on the group, causing the PKK to scatter. After the 1991 Gulf War, the central Iraqi government was weakened, so the PKK shifted some of its resources and manpower to northern Iraq, a region that is also predominately Kurdish. This angered the Turks, whose forces crossed the Iraqi border on several occasions to attack PKK encampments. This resulted in a "Catch 22" situation for American aircraft enforcing a "no-fly zone" over northern Iraq. American supplied Turkish warplanes bombed Kurdish positions in northern Iraq, while American warplanes flying missions to protect the Kurds from Iraqi forces, patrolled overhead. 

Turkey strongly opposed the 2003 American invasion of Iraq, and denied use of their airbases and ports to American forces wanting to invade Iraq from the north as well. The Bush administration was surprised that the Turks thought an invasion would only cause chaos. Meanwhile, the brutality of the American military occupation and killings of their fellow Muslims in Iraq has caused anti-American sentiment to rise. The nation became furious when on July 4, 2003, US troops arrested a team of Turkish special forces in northern Iraq. The Turks were smuggling arms to ethnic brethren squared off against the Kurds, who were allied with US forces. Photos of handcuffed Turks with bags over their heads deeply humiliated and angered the Turkish public. 

This resulted in the production of a Turkish film Valley of the Wolves: Iraq, where US soldiers shoot small children at point-blank range, harvest kidneys from Iraqi prisoners for shipment to Tel Aviv, blow a Muslim cleric out of his minaret, and display contempt for Turkish foreign policy. This film set a box office record in its first weekend, after opening last year in more theaters than any movie in Turkish history.[2] 

After a bomb killed six people in the capital of Ankara on May 22, 2007, many Turkish officials called for retaliation. The PKK denied responsibility for the bomb. Turkey's powerful military has frequently indicated its readiness to launch a cross-border operation, but Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has resisted. Under pressure from the secularist army over his party's Islamic roots, Erdogan's thinking about military action in Iraq has changed, telling the ATV Turkish television network that parliament would now approve a military strike if the army sought it. "It is out of the question for us to disagree on this issue with our... soldiers," he said. He also indicated he would not seek American approval, which has opposed Turkish intervention in Iraq. He announced, "Turkey doesn't require permission from any country. Other nations should in fact support us in this endeavor."[3] 

The key factors behind Turkey's lack of military involvement in northern Iraq thus far are the European Union (EU) and resistance from the USA. Brussels has been critical of Turkey's treatment of its Kurds, and this has been a factor in Turkey's difficulty in joining the EU. Nevertheless, the status of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk could spur Turkish intervention. As part of Iraq's new constitution, residents in Kirkuk are supposed to hold a referendum before the end of the year on whether the city should join the autonomous Kurdish region run by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which controls most of northern Iraq. Kirkuk is farther south with a large Arab and Turkmen population, but citizens are expected to endorse joining the KRG due to the predominance of Kurds in the city.[4] 

Turkey fears that if the KRG incorporated the oil-rich area of Kirkuk, it would be in a better financial position to declare independence, and thus bolster Kurdish independence aspirations in Turkey. If Turkey decides to take military action to thwart the referendum, it would claim publicly that it was moving to protect its Turkish-speaking minority.[5] 

Given the failure of American governance in Iraq, it seems inevitable that Turkish forces will reclaim northern Iraq in the coming months. They will arrive as "peacekeepers" to restore order while dealing with Kurdish "terrorists." However, their true motivation is a nationalistic desire to reclaim part of the Ottoman Empire and its huge oil reserves, whose oil is already sent through a Turkish pipeline to the Mediterranean. 

This oil wealth is far more valuable than EU membership, something that seems unreachable anyway. The EU may quietly accept "temporary" Turkish peacekeepers since they have no desire to send troops themselves. They can do business with the Turks, who can ensure this valuable oil flows into the world's market, which is better than allowing chaos as ethnic groups wage horrific battles for control while al Qaeda recruits followers. 

The USA is likely to endorse the arrival of Turkish troops. In fact, Turkey offered to send troops to Iraq in 2003. The Kurds and Arabs strongly objected since they know the Turks would never leave, so the idea was dropped. However, the USA must begin reducing forces in Iraq next year due to political pressure and a weakening of the US Army and Marines due to deployment strains. Allowing the Turkish military to occupy northern Iraq is an easy solution. If the Kurds object, they can take their concerns to the Turkish military. They were never promised independence anyway, and were supposed to disband their militias years ago. 

If Iraq falls further into chaos, Turkish forces may cross the border uninvited. A weakened US Army under siege throughout Iraq would be foolish to challenge the invasion. Fighting the Turks would be suicidal. After a few tense days, the USA is likely to announce that the arrival of Turkish peacekeepers is welcome, especially since it allows a reduction in US forces. In addition, Turkey maintains good relations with Israel while a Sunni dominated Turkish military occupying northern Iraq would be an obstacle to Iran's Shia radicals. 

If the Kurds are smart, they will offer to partition northern Iraq between Turkey and an independent Kurdistan. This is something the Turks and the world community may accept. However, the KRG is split between two large militias and smaller radical groups that will never accept Turkish rule over Kurdish areas. If they prefer to fight, they will suffer a bloody defeat. Meanwhile, the Turks will never leave as Turkey becomes a major oil exporter and the Ottoman Empire rises again.


       
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