[A-List] As Willie Sutton said: "Because that's where the money is..." Mexico militarizes it's drug war

["Leigh Meyers" <the.buffalo.in.the.midst@xxxxxxxxx>]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Sutton
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_Drugs

Globalguerrillas:
Saturday, 19 May 2007
MEXICO MILITARIZES ITS DRUG WAR

Over the past four years, there's been a rapid consolidation of
Mexico's drug smuggling gangs into two cartels -- the Sinaloan
(Pacific) and the Gulf -- due to a yawning deficit in government
control. The result of this consolidation was a turf war between the
cartels over the lucrative plazas that afforded entry into the US. The
violence of this struggle quickly overwhelmed (through corruption and
threats) the local governments/police, and the national government
belatedly responded earlier this year by sending in the army.

Here's a good example of how this militarization of the situation is
progressing.

Earlier this week, the Gulf cartel sent 50 "soldiers" to the town of
Cananea (30 miles south of Arizona), to wrest control of the town's
police from the Sinaloan cartel. The Gulf cartel's soldiers ranged
through the town on a spree of violence, killing or abducting all of
the corrupt policemen that they could find. When the state police and
the army arrived on Wednesday, the entire local police force was gone.
The army, with the help of helicopters, found the gunmen nearby and
assaulted their compound in a fire fight that lasted five hours. Many
of the gunmen escaped and are now being pursued by the government.

The interesting aspect of this to me, is less the success of the
government in this specific incident, but rather its impact on the
evolution of small group violence in northern Mexico.

The militarization of the conflict, absent any change in the economic
forces that spawned it, will only serve as an evolutionary imperative
and will not eliminate the problem. Given government pressure on the
cartels, the most effective/efficient group size will shrink. Gaggles
of gunmen, like the group that assaulted Cananea, which are effective
in consolidation (absent government counter-pressure) will fade due to
their vulnerability.

In turn, the ability of the cartels to enforce discipline will rapidly
diminish and the result will be bevy of loosely associated, albeit
highly networked smaller groups, very much like what we see in a
variety of other hot spots today.

Since these smaller groups will be fighting the army and they have
already absorbed a significant amount military knowledge from the
Zeta's and the Guatemalan Kaibiles, we will likely see an escalation
of the conflict due to evolutionary improvements in organization and
method.

These new smaller groups, unlike the Cartels, will also increasingly
view the Mexican state as an enemy to be fought rather than merely an
impediment to be corrupted. It will be interesting to follow this as
it progresses.

Posted by John Robb on Saturday, 19 May 2007 at 06:14 AM
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2007/05/mexico_militari.html