[A-List] Iran Studies China Model to Craft Economic Map

["Yoshie Furuhashi" <critical.montages@xxxxxxxxx>]

<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117944654831706926.html?mod=googlenews_wsj>
Iran Studies China Model
To Craft Economic Map
Nation Aims to Keep
Political Control
And Lift Economy
By ANDREW HIGGINS
May 18, 2007; Page A4

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iranian officials are looking to China for ideas on
solving a riddle that has bedeviled strong-fisted governments the
world over: How does a state loosen its suffocating grip on the
economy without losing political control in the process?
KEY TO SUCCESS?

•  What's Happening: Iran is looking to China for keys to unleashing
its economy without losing political control.

•  The Impetus: Under pressure from economic sanctions and its own
revolutionary legacy, Iran is squandering its oil revenue.

•  The Quandary: President Ahmadinejad has aggravated the sense of
policy paralysis.

On a tour of China late last year, a delegation of Iranian officials
and members of parliament visited Shanghai and Shenzhen, two boom
towns that exemplify China's approach. Adel Azar, head of the Iranian
parliament's economic committee and a member of the 30-strong study
mission, says he was shocked by the contrast between dynamism in China
and immobility in Iran, a country with just one-eighteenth as many
people as China and much more gas and oil wealth.

"We started our debate about private business about the same time as
China," says Mr. Azar, referring to discussions in both countries in
the early 1980s on how to best balance state and private sectors. "We
argued. They just got on with it."

Tehran has grown more eager for an clear direction in recent months as
international pressure to dismantle its nuclear program has heightened
the sense of crisis and policy drift. Economic sanctions have squeezed
Iranian banks, limited access to technology and damped foreigners'
already limited enthusiasm to invest here.

Though hugely different, both the People's Republic of China and the
Islamic Republic of Iran are creations of revolution -- Communist and
Islamic, respectively. Both proclaim revolutionary ideologies
discredited by reality. But while China has, despite periodic flurries
of rhetoric, abandoned the economic principles of its 1949 revolution,
Iran still clings to its own younger, Islamic revolutionary legacy.

Since the overthrow of the shah in 1979, Iran has struggled to craft
an "Islamic" economic model that mixes social justice, religious
values and growth. The result is a ramshackle oil-financed system that
respects private property on the margins but is state dominated. The
state and its affiliates control more than 75% of the economy.
Subsidies for energy, food and other items amount to more than a
quarter of Iran's gross domestic product, according to the
International Monetary Fund.

"The economy is going to hell," says Saeed Laylaz, an economist who
advised the former reformist government. "There is only one economic
model here -- the oil model." Iran's economic output grew more than 5%
last year, largely on the back of high world prices for its energy
exports, but this isn't much better than the country's growth rate
when oil prices were far lower. Economists say this shows the
government is squandering the oil windfall in nonproductive ways.

Mr. Azar, the member of parliament who visited China, stands at the
opposite end of the political spectrum from Mr. Laylaz, but agrees the
economy is in trouble. "We are, of course, not satisfied with the
general state of our economy," says the conservative legislator.

But there is no agreement on what to do about it. Some look to a
Chinese-style solution with private enterprise steered by a strong
state hand. A rival view -- which had the upper hand before President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election in 2005 -- advocates a more open,
market-based approach.

On paper, at least, Iran's economic strategy is more or less a
standard one for a developing resource-rich nation: trying to reduce
dependence on oil and expand its nonenergy sector. The country is
having the same lack of success in that endeavor as most other
oil-dependent states. But Iran's hope of getting beyond this stage is
further complicated by the ideological baggage of a revolution that,
in theory at least, puts religion at the core of decision-making.

Mr. Ahmadinejad, who came to office promising to "put oil revenue on
the dinner table of every Iranian," has aggravated a sense of policy
paralysis with a mix of populist economics and anti-Western theatrics.
His government reluctantly backed calls by parliament for reductions
in energy subsidies -- which have made gasoline one-fifth as expensive
per liter as mineral water -- but devised an elaborate high-tech,
low-efficiency rationing system that seems designed to fail.

Iran's nuclear program, meanwhile, has led to a strengthening of
sanctions that already limit the foreign investment and technology
Iran desperately needs both to develop its biggest assets -- oil and
gas -- and to expand a tiny private sector. The United Nations
Conference on Trade and Development pegged nonenergy, direct foreign
investment in Iran at just $30 million in 2005, the last year for
which figures are available, compared with $9.6 billion for Turkey,
which has about the same population but a far freer economy.

In a recent speech, Mr. Ahmadinejad boasted that Iran's foes "are
worried that Iran will become a model for other nations." That's true
to the extent that its nuclear program has led Saudi Arabia, Egypt and
others to consider following suit. But in economics, Iran is widely
viewed as a model of failure. Even Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia and
social movement that ranks as Iran's keenest foreign fan, takes a dim
view of its patron's economic example, says the head of Hezbollah's
policy think-tank in Beirut, Ali Fayad.

While presenting itself as a beacon for the Islamic world, Tehran has
hunted abroad for ideas on how to fix its dysfunctional economy.

"There has been lots of talk about economic models since the
revolution. First, there was the Korean model, then there was the
Chinese model, and now there is also the Malaysian model," says
Shahriar Alesheikh, an economist who runs a trade-exhibition center in
Mashad, Iran's second-largest city.

None of these foreign templates have really taken hold. This, says Mr.
Alesheikh, the Mashad economist, is because they "separate religious
issues from development issues. That is not going to happen here."

Backers of change look admiringly at atheist China's ability to get
beyond revolutionary cant. Conservatives, meanwhile, take heart in
Beijing's ability to resist political change.

[Chart: <http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/NA-AM914_IRANEC_20070517205701.gif>]

"The thing they like about China is that they think it shows you don't
need democracy to grow," says Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an expert on the
Iranian economy at Virginia Tech University in Blacksburg, Va. But, he
adds, Beijing's example "doesn't apply because Iran is not a low-wage
economy. Therefore, it is not able to export" at competitive prices
like China.

At the root of Iran's economic paralysis is a system of leadership in
which power is divided among an elected government, now headed by Mr.
Ahmadinejad; an elected parliament; and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, a clerical appointee. This contrasts with China, where
power is concentrated in a single body, the Communist Party. Iran's
fractious power centers all profess loyalty to the Islamic revolution,
but often disagree on what this means in practice.

Last year, Mr. Khamenei obliquely chided Mr. Ahmadinejad for his
handling of the economy and called for more progress on privatization
in keeping with Article 44 of Iran's constitution, which calls for a
mixed economy composed of state, cooperative and private ventures. Mr.
Azar, the legislator, says the Supreme Leader's intervention opens the
way for a long overdue expansion of the private sector. "We have to
reduce the role of the state," he says.

But the opening is likely to be very narrow. Article 44 mandates that
heavy industry, foreign trade, large mines, banking, insurance,
energy, radio, television, post, telephone, aviation, shipping and
various other spheres all remain under government control. This leaves
little room for private enterprise.

"They don't want to lose control of the economy because they believe
-- and they are right -- that they will lose their political
domination if there is any decrease in the government's share," says
Mr. Laylaz, the economist who favors liberalization.

Indeed, Mr. Ahmadinejad's economic policies so far have been dominated
by measures that increase economic dependency on -- and loyalty to --
the state. For example, he set up a national network of credit
agencies called the Kindness of Imam Reza Fund, whose job is to give
cheap credit to newlyweds and others in need.

Economists view the loans as thinly disguised handouts and warn that
the government's largesse, made possible by a flood of oil-generated
cash, is fueling dangerously high inflation, now heading toward 20%.
Unemployment, meanwhile, remains stubbornly high. Official statistics
put it above 11%, with the rate for young Iranians exceeding 20%.

The majority of Iranians have little interest in theoretical debate
about which model might help. But they, too, often seem torn between a
desire for protection from the state and a desire for more private
enterprise. They curse the government as corrupt and inefficient, but
also expect it to provide cheap gasoline, to shield them against
foreign competition and to confront the rich, whom they view as
corrupt.

After attending Friday prayers in Tehran, Mohammad Mohseni, a private
trader of home appliances, grumbled that Mr. Ahmadinejad hadn't
delivered on his economic promises. But his main gripe is with cheap
imported goods. "I haven't heard anyone saying that they have been
helped by Mr. Ahmadinejad," he says. "We have got nothing."

Write to Andrew Higgins at andrew.higgins@xxxxxxx
--
Yoshie