[A-List] Is the U.S.-Turkey Alliance at an End?

[Sabri Oncu <sabri_oncu@xxxxxxxxx>]

Is the U.S.-Turkey Alliance at an End? 

By Rajan Menon and S. Enders Wimbush
Special to washingtonpost.com's Think Tank Town
Tuesday, April 24, 2007; 12:00 AM

Turkey and the United States are approaching a critical strategic crossroad
that will determine both the shape and the content of their relationship for
the foreseeable future. The pressures forcing change on this long-standing
alliance -- which has endured since the Truman Doctrine in 1947 -- are
powerful. Neither Turkish nor American policymakers seem to grasp the emerging
reality that this important friendship is fast eroding; alternatively, they
have concluded that the alliance has run its course and are prepared to let it
go. Neither side is taking serious remedial measures to recalibrate a vibrant
friendship that has served both countries well for more than half a century.
The consequences for both sides of a failure to make necessary course
corrections will be significant. 

The war in Iraq is the most immediate bone of contention driving Turkey and the
U.S. apart, but it is not the only driver. Since Turkey denied use of its bases
to initiate a second American front in Iraq in the run-up to the 2003 invasion,
the prevailing perception across the Turkish political spectrum -- including in
the all-important military and political elite -- is that Washington is seeking
to punish Turkey. For its part, Washington has made its feeling of betrayal
clear to the Turks and to the world. Political miscalculations, articulated via
hyperbolic political theater on both sides, might have dissipated under
different circumstances, but this has not happened.

Instead, the Iraq war has put new energy into the third rail of Turkish
politics: the Kurdish question. Ankara fears not only that the American-led
intervention cannot hold Iraq together, but that it is a powerful stimulant for
its breakup, which will result in an independent Kurdish entity in northern
Iraq, bordering Turkey's Kurdish population. Turkey's experience fighting
Kurdish separatists and terrorists is long, bitter and bloody. Consequently,
there is no resonance at any point on Turkey's political spectrum, or even in
private discussions, for allowing something resembling a Kurdish state to
emerge on the ruins of broken Iraq. 

To the contrary, in the last few days, Turkey's military leaders acknowledged
that they are seriously contemplating finally intervening with their own
powerful military in northern Iraq to eliminate this possibility, regardless of
the presence of American troops there or elsewhere in the country. Recent
reports suggest that this decision is already before Turkey's parliament, and
that it has strong popular support. 

Anti-Americanism in Turkey, fueled by the continuing chaos in Iraq and the
decisions that led to that imbroglio, is running at unprecedented levels, as
opinion polls have graphically documented in recent months. Nearly 80 percent
of Turks view the United States as a problem, including being a direct threat
to Turkey's national security.

Iraq is the immediate irritant, but Turkey's search for a more comprehensive
identity has been underway since at least the end of the Cold War. Turkey has
been slowly redefining its strategic identity since the early 1980s, an
evolution to which official Washington has been stunningly silent. Decades of
Turkish secularism and an obsessive pro-Western orientation -- always somewhat
artificial -- are being adjusted to reflect the realities of Turkey's new
strategic position and objectives. Today many Turks understand that it is
essential to create a more organic equilibrium in Turkey's relationships with
the Muslim world, with Eurasia -- particularly with Russia and the emerging
Eurasian power China -- and formalize Turkey's relationship with the West,
emblemized by Turkey's current efforts to join the European Union. A new
generation of Turkish strategists sees Turkey as a major player across the
Islamic world and as a major Eurasian actor -- with or without the United
States -- while still keeping a strong foothold in the West. 

American policy makers continue to mouth platitudes to the effect that Turkey
is a model democratic secular Islamic state, a misplaced accolade most Turks
find highly insulting. They view themselves rather differently, and more
broadly: as a crucial ally in the struggle against terrorism; as a critical
security nexus atop an arc extending from Israel to Central Asia, a zone of
actual or potential upheaval and war; as a guarantor of essential water-borne
commerce, particularly hydrocarbons; as a frontline state against a potentially
nuclear-armed Iran; and as a corridor for the strategically important
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

Turks have always assumed that their cooperation is key to a durable settlement
in Iraq. Most are astonished and aggrieved that the American debate on how to
fix the Iraq mess, and the policies of the George W. Bush administration in
particular, fail to reflect either Turkey's frontline position or the
consequences of American failure in Iraq on Turkey's immediate and longer-term
security interests. America, they feel, has taken Turkey for granted. In this,
the American media has been complicit, or ignorant. In most pundits'
discussions of how the Iraq issue might eventually be settled, Turkey is almost
never cited as a critical actor or as the likely recipient of the consequences
of the action of others, almost as if Iraq might somehow be fixed without Turks
ever noticing or caring.

The Iraq problem has accelerated a debate in Turkey that likely would have
taken place anyway. Today, influential Turks, government officials and foreign
policy experts alike have embarked on a strategic reassessment. Turkey's
possible reorientation could include building deeper ties with new partners,
among them Russia -- with whom Turkey is developing deep economic and energy
ties; China, which is building a strong position throughout Eurasia, including
in Turkey; Iran -- which is more popular in Turkey today than the United
States; and Syria. Strategic realignment could wittingly or unwittingly cause
Turks to abandon their longstanding premise that the United States remains the
indispensable ally. Turkey's rejection by the EU, an outcome a growing number
of Turks are coming to acknowledge as likely, will accelerate dynamics within
Turkey for strategic realignment. 

This need not happen. Turkey's strategic salience to American objectives across
the Middle East and Eurasia has never been greater, especially as Turkey
re-defines itself to account for a post-Cold War world that presents both
countries with new challenges, opportunities, and a new range of convergent
interests. But both sides urgently need to develop a new vision of the
strategic future, beginning with the looming breakup of Iraq and the strong
possibility that Turkey will fail to join Europe officially. The latter,
ironically, might strengthen opportunities for a revivified, redefined
U.S.-Turkey partnership.

Both sides need to pay urgent attention to the possibility that the U.S.-Turkey
alliance could be in jeopardy. To this end, they should move to establish
high-level joint working groups that are tasked with proposing concrete
measures to safeguard the alliance and to ensure its relevance for the
post-Cold War world. Turkey must also be made a central partner in fashioning a
political settlement in Iraq and engage in regular consultations and joint
planning to this end. 

The U.S. must work with both the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in
northern Iraq and the Turkish leadership to prevent the dispute over the
oil-rich city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq (contested by the Kurds and by the
Turkmen, who are supported by Turkey) from precipitating open warfare and
possible Turkish intervention, which could further undermine America's alliance
with Turkey.

Finally, bi-lateral, and eventually multilateral steps must be taken to fashion
a "grand bargain" between the KRG and Turkey that includes specific and
enforceable provisions to assure the KRG that Turkey will not invade Iraqi
Kurdistan to forestall the possibility of an independent Kurdish state and to
guarantee Turkey that the KRG will not permit the Kurdish radicals and
separatists to use northern Iraq as a base of operations against Turkey. 

It is neither in America's interest to "lose" Turkey, nor in Turkey's interest
to "lose" the United States. But the dynamics that currently dominate this
historic relationship are leading in this direction. 

Rajan Menon is an Adjunct Fellow at Hudson Institute and the Monroe J. Rathbone
Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University. S. Enders Wimbush is
Director of Hudson Institute's Center for Future Security Strategies. They
recently published a Hudson Institute monograph entitled, "Is the U.S. Losing
Turkey?"


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