Re: [A-List] France: beware Sarko

[Jean-Christophe Helary <fusion@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

On 23 avr. 07, at 10:52, Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:

> On 4/22/07, Jean-Christophe Helary <fusion@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > On 23 avr. 07, at 06:32, Jim Yarker wrote:
> >
> > > In Montréal, which I believe has the biggest vote outside France,
> > > the %'s were:
> >
> > It seems to be Genève, with close to 40,000 voters (according to
> > something I saw somewhere on Le Monde last night).
> >
> > > Ségo 35,7
> > > Sarko 30,7
> > > Bayrou 22,9
> > > LePen 3,3
> > > Bové 1,6
> >
> > Osaka fared better: Royal/Bayrou/Sarkozy :) But we only had 600
> > registered voters...
>
> I just looked at Le Monde.  Will the Bayrou voters be voting for
> Royal, as he has seemed to be opposed more to Sarko than to Royal?

I don't know. I met people in Osaka who were of the irrelevant false  
left and who voted Bayrou instead of Royal because they did not think  
she would make it to the second round and they wanted to ensure that  
Le Pen would not be in second position. I understand that a number of  
PS members voted Bayrou too. People who could not stand the Royal  
candidacy.

When you compare to previous elections:
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/ 
Élections_présidentielles_sous_la_Cinquième_République

You can see that the left has a voice pool besides for the PS.  
Problem is this time the left has no place to take its votes from on  
the second round. In 81 the PC was here for the second round and the  
total of the "left" was then close to 50% after the first round,  
while now it is only around 35%. It is going to be a very difficult 2  
week campaign. I don't believe a lot of Bayrou's original base will  
vote Royal.

JC