Re: [A-List] Don't exaggerate climate dangers, warn scientists

["Suzanne de Kuyper" <suzannedk@xxxxxxxxx>]

Given the human tendency to do habitual things the new alarums may be useful about getting us 6 billion people to change

On 3/22/07, Charles Brown <cbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

The Hindu
http://www.thehindu.com/

Monday, Mar 19, 2007

Opinion

Don't exaggerate climate dangers, warn scientists
http://www.hindu.com/2007/03/19/stories/2007031902651100.htm

Juliette Jowit

LEADING CLIMATE change experts have warned of the "Hollywoodisation" of
global warning and criticised American scientists for exaggerating the
message of global warming.

Paul Hardaker and Chris Collier of the U.K.'s Royal Meteorological Society
said scientists, campaign groups, politicians, and the media were all guilty
of making out that catastrophic events were more likely to happen when this
could not be proved by scientists. They also criticised the tendency to say
individual extreme events - such as a typhoon or floods - were certain
evidence of climate change.

They singled out for criticism a report last month by the American
Association for the Advancement of Science, which said intensification of
droughts, heat waves, floods, wildfires and storms were "early warning signs
of even more devastating damage to come."

"It's certainly a very strong statement," said Professor Collier. "To make
the blanket assumption that all extreme weather events are increasing is a
bit too early yet."

Media criticised

Reporting of the recent report by the United Nations International Panel on
Climate Change by the media was also criticised, especially the use of words
not in the report such as "catastrophic," "shocking," 'terrifying," and
"devastating."

"Campaigners, media, and some scientists seem to be appealing to fear in
order to generate a sense of urgency," said Mike Hulme, director of the
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia.
The report by Professors Hardaker and Collier, and other climate experts,
"Making Sense of the Weather and Climate," was launched at a conference in
Oxford, England, organised by the charity Sense About Science. The authors
said they firmly believe global warming is happening and man-made emissions
of greenhouse gases are partly to blame.

Some scientists also acknowledged that dramatic warnings about climate
change had helped generate public debate and support for action to reduce
the threat. But Professor Hardaker warned that exaggeration of the problems
made the public confused and made it easier for sceptics to argue that the
scientists were wrong.

An example of a low probability event given too much weight was the risk of
the Gulf Stream, which keeps the North Atlantic relatively warm, "switching
off" and plunging the region into an ice age - the scenario dramatised by
the Hollywood film The Day After Tomorrow, which also came in for criticism
for exaggerating that problem. As a result scientists had to be more honest
about the uncertainties surrounding climate change prediction to avoid
losing public trust, said Professor Hardaker.

"Once you begin to exaggerate the science in either direction the debate
gets out of control," he said. Their comments were backed today by other
leading figures in the debate.

- C Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

Copyright C 2007, The Hindu.