[A-List] Ervand Abrahamian and Fawaz Gerges on CNN

["Yoshie Furuhashi" <critical.montages@xxxxxxxxx>]

<http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0702/01/ldt.01.html>
LOU DOBBS TONIGHT
General George Casey Grilled; Showdown Over Iraq; Intelligence Battle
Aired February 1, 2007 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND
MAY BE UPDATED.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

DOBBS: There's rising tension tonight between the United States and
Iran. The Bush administration accusing Iran of helping insurgents kill
our troops in Iraq. And at the same time, Iran is aggressively pushing
ahead with its nuclear weapons program.

Joining me now, three leading authorities on Iran, Iraq and Iran's
military ambitions. Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle East and
international studies at Sarah Lawrence College. And Ervand Abrahamian
is a history professor at Baruch College, and we thank you for being
here. General David Grange, one of the country's most distinguished
military commanders, and it's always good to have you with us, Dave.

And Fawaz, let me begin with you. The idea that this country's headed
toward war with Iran was given something of a boost today by the State
Department, in making very clear charges against them. What's your
reaction?

FAWAZ GERGES, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: Well, as you said, it is an
intensified rhetoric on the part of the Bush administration. Not just
rhetoric -- the president has a new order to capture and kill Iranian
agents in Iraq. Naval build-up in the Gulf. Threats, open threats by
the president.

I think -- I would not go as far as saying that we're going to war. I
think the Bush administration appears to have decided to exert
political and military pressure on Iran, and to basically prevent it
from damaging its campaign in Iraq.

DOBBS: Ervand?

ERVAND ABRAHAMIAN, BARUCH COLLEGE: I would go further. I think the
decision was made some time ago in Washington that the Iranian nuclear
program has to be destroyed. I think that commitment has been made to
Israel. And if once you have that premise, then the question is, how
do you stop the Iranian nuclear program?

One is the diplomatic route, which the administration's excluded. So
the other route is basically a military route, which is -- of course
will lead to a wider war, which is the real danger.

DOBBS: Professor Abrahamian says that he sees a clear path to
conflict. General Grange, your view?

BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: I believe it's
going to be inevitable, Lou. I think that, one, just the nuclear issue
that you discussed, that that decision has been made. In fact, if it
goes that far, there's no other choice, really. The other two issues
are the support of terrorism and, of course, the influence in Iraq,
which are causing American G.I.s to die and not to -- the ability to
accomplish our mission. So those three things are driving it.

DOBBS: If there are, in point of fact -- if the United States has
solid evidence that Iran has been killing American troops and working
against U.S. interests for a year and a half, why in the world has the
United States military not taken action in that year and a half period
of time, General Grange?

GRANGE: Well, action has already been taken. And some action has been
ongoing for some time. You don't hear a lot about it. It's just been
cranked up a bit because the Iranian influence, with both Republican
Guard and intelligence services personnel, equivalent of, say, their
special forces, has been involved.

It's more than spying. It's more than spying, which every nation does.
These are people directly involved with supporting insurgents and
militias.

DOBBS: Professor Gerges, you have given us a more hopeful perspective
here. How do you react?

GERGES: Lou, one point must be made very clear. The Sunni-led
insurgency is responsible for the death of almost 99 percent of
American and coalition forces in Iraq. And the Sunni-led insurgency is
as opposed to Iran and the Shias as it is opposed to basically the
American military presence.

Of course, Iran has been supporting armed Shiite militias, which have
been killing Sunnis, thousands of Sunnis. And in this particular
sense, Iran has contributed to the intensification of the sectarian
strife.

But I think it's very misleading. Truly, empirically, to say that Iran
has contributed significantly the death of the American soldiers. It's
the Sunni-led insurgency, not Iran.

DOBBS: Professor Abrahamian?

ABRAHAMIAN: Yes, I think actually, so far, ironically that Iran and
the United States have been on parallel paths. Both have been
supporting -- SCIRI and Dawa, who have formed the main Baghdad
government. So their support has gone basically to them. So I think
the idea that somehow Iranians are supporting insurgents, Sunnis
against -- killing Americans, it could be possible. But it's very
unlikely. I would say it's in the realm of absurdity.

GERGES: I just come from the Middle East. I cannot tell you the
transformation that has taken place in the Sunni-dominated Arab world,
anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian sentiment is becoming deeply hardened in
the region. I mean, there is a major internal, intensive struggle in
the Middle East...

DOBBS: Forgive me...

GERGES: Yes.

DOBBS: ... forgive me for second, you said what has become hardened?

GERGES: The anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian sentiments in the Sunni
Arab-dominated world. And to put -- it's amazing. In the Arab world,
the thing is Iran...

DOBBS: And, of course, Sunnis dominate the Muslim world.

GERGES: Ninety percent. Ninety percent of Muslims are Sunnis.

And, in fact, most -- I mean, a majority of Sunnis believe that the
United States and Iran are basically allied together against the
Sunni, the Sunni minority in Iraq. And this is the irony, the paradox
of the situation in Iraq.

DOBBS: Professor Gerges, Professor Abrahamian, General Grange raise
serious questions that -- and we already have a very high bar to act
on any intelligence, given the history of U.S. intelligence here. Does
this give you pause, as you look at what is developing there in Iran
and Iraq, General Grange?

GRANGE: Lou, you know, first of all, the Iranian influence in Iraq
does not only support Shia death squads or militia or whatever, it
also supports Sunni insurgents. In other words, their common enemy is
the Americans. They still fight each other. If two out of three
Americans die from IEDs, most of the IEDs are triggered or initiated
by devices made in Iran, then their influencing the death of the
American soldiers regardless of who pulls the trigger.

ABRAHAMIAN: Lou, sorry. I would take issue of that. Before we believe
that, we need evidence. I think it's -- the realm is so fantastic...

GRANGE: There is evidence.

ABRAHAMIAN: All right, then I would like to see it. I mean, it's as
absurd as to say that American administration was behind 9/11. It just
is not possible in the Middle East context to think that Iranian
officials would be providing lethal materials to Sunni, Baathist
fanatics who kill other Shias. It's just not possible.

GERGES: The truth is there is major, major civil war taking place in
Iraq between the Sunni-led insurgency or resistance and the Shiites.
It makes sense that Iran supports the Shiite militias who are battling
the Sunnis.

But it doesn't make sense. It's against common sense. I can
understand, for example, if Iranian arms are sold on the black market.
I can understand if Syria supports some of these Sunni resistant
groups. But truly Iran, it's against its interests to do so.

DOBBS: And we're going to have to conclude there.

General Grange, you get the last word, if you may quickly.

GRANGE: Well, you know, the bottom line is, Iran is influencing the
outcome of Iraq. And that should be stopped just like the nuclear
proliferation piece should be stopped, just like support of Hezbollah
in Lebanon or the Hamas or whoever else. I mean, this is a challenge
to this nation and it has to be taken on somehow.

ABRAHAMIAN: Could I...

DOBBS: I lied. You're not going to get the last word, General Grange.

Professor Abrahamian wants the last word here.

ABRAHAMIAN: ... that the logic of what is being said is, if the United
States attacks Iran, what is Iran going to do? They're not going to
sit back. They will, as the general says, they have assets in Iraq,
also they have it in Afghanistan. We're actually heading for a 30 to
100-year war if there are air strikes.

GERGES: May I take the final word?

DOBBS: OK, You get the final word. I'm now out of the bidding.

GERGES: I think the administration is basically trying to exert both
political and military pressure to deter Iran, and basically convince
the Iranian leadership not to intervene in the Iraqi political
situation, and send a message about its nuclear portfolio as well.

DOBBS: Professor Gerges, Professor Abrahamian, thank you very much.

GRANGE: I agree with that.

DOBBS: General Grange, thank you. We appreciate it.

And that is the last word.


--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>
<http://mrzine.org>
<http://monthlyreview.org/>