[A-List] The UAE, the So-called "Israel Lobby," and Iran

["Yoshie Furuhashi" <critical.montages@xxxxxxxxx>]

Note that it is "the UAE government [that] extended an invitation a
few months ago [to the Conference of Presidents of Major American
Jewish Organizations] and then the American Jewish umbrella group
received _approval from both the American and Israeli governments_ to
respond positively" (emphasis added).  The so-called "Israel Lobby" is
best thought of as an (ostensibly independent) arm of Washington, very
much like the NED.  Again, it's the Gulf states, not Israel, that are
the main regional asset for the empire and the main regional problem
for the Arabs and Iranians. -- Yoshie

<http://www.forward.com/articles/groups-head-to-emirates-as-worries-grow-over-iran/>
Groups Head to Emirates, as Worries Grow Over Iran
Marc Perelman | Fri. Jan 19, 2007

The main umbrella group of American Jewish organizations is set to
visit Dubai and Abu Dhabi next month in a sign of the growing concern
among Sunni regimes over Iran's nuclear and regional ambitions.

The trip, by a delegation from the Conference of Presidents of Major
American Jewish Organizations to the main power centers of the United
Arab Emirates, is notable because the Sunni-majority UAE does not have
formal diplomatic ties with Israel. The trip also comes amid a flurry
of consultations between Washington, its regional allies and Israel
about steps to counter Iran's influence in the region, first and
foremost in Iraq but also in Lebanon and in the Palestinian
territories.

"The UAE is a critically important place on the issue of terrorism,
the fight against extremism and Iran," said Malcolm Hoenlein,
executive vice chairman of the Presidents Conference, a 51-member
umbrella organization that serves as the Jewish community's main
collective voice on Middle East affairs. "We want to see improved
relations with the U.S., of course, but also hope that this can foster
relations with Israel."

The UAE has no diplomatic ties with Israel and still adheres to the
primary Arab boycott against trade with the Jewish state. Even though
it abandoned the so-called secondary and tertiary boycotts against
third-party firms that trade with Israel, the American Jewish
delegation will not be flying directly from Israel; instead it will
travel via Amman, Jordan, to reach the UAE.

According to Hoenlein, the UAE government extended an invitation a few
months ago and then the American Jewish umbrella group received
approval from both the American and Israeli governments to respond
positively.

The upcoming visit is slated to include meetings with senior
government officials, as well as with business and religious leaders.

Whether the trip could end up opening some diplomatic relations with
Israel — as a previous one in 1995 helped lay the groundwork for such
ties between Israel and Qatar — remains an open question.

Representatives of Israel and of the UAE held talks last year about
opening a low-level Israeli interest office in Abu Dhabi, but little
progress was made at the time. The trip to the Gulf region will
precede the group's annual mission to Israel, scheduled for the second
week of February.

Iran is expected to be a topic at some of the meetings in the UAE.
Still, despite widespread Sunni concerns about Iran, experts believe
that the UAE is unlikely to confront Tehran publicly.

Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council "share many of our concerns
about what the Iranians might intend, but they do not necessarily
agree with our chosen means: verbal confrontation, threats, futile
attempts at diplomatic isolation," said David Mack, acting president
of the Middle East Institute in Washington and a former American
ambassador to the UAE. "They all have diplomatic relations with Iran
and, in some cases, considerable trade."

Indeed, Iran has very close economic ties to Dubai, the region's
leading business hub; as such, the emirate is key to American efforts
to tighten the financial pressure on the mullah regime. In recent
weeks, the U.S. Treasury Department has issued directives barring two
Iranian state-owned banks from accessing American financial markets,
because of the banks' alleged role in supporting terrorism and
procuring weapons.

In addition, the Bush administration has been pressuring European and
Asian corporations to downgrade their presence in Iran. American
officials have met UAE officials, too, to discuss Iran's business
interests in Dubai.

One factor that works in the administration's favor is the UAE and the
Gulf countries' growing worries about Tehran's nuclear program. In a
major speech on Iraq last week, President Bush confirmed that the
United States would send an additional carrier strike group to the
Persian Gulf, as well as provide Patriot anti-missile defense systems
to members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC.

Last year, Tehran signaled to the GCC states that it would retaliate
against them if the United States attacked Iran using bases on their
soil. Since Tehran's most likely weapon would be ballistic missiles,
deploying Patriots would protect the GCC states against a potential
Iranian strike.

In addition to the concerns of America's allies in the region about
Tehran's ascendancy, the Bush administration has ratcheted up its
efforts to stem Iran's influence in Iraq.

The administration has in effect rejected the recommendations of the
bipartisan Iraq Study Group about the need to engage Iran and Syria,
by issuing repeated warnings to Tehran about its meddling in Iraq and
by taking more aggressive action on the ground.

Bush signed an order authorizing the disruption of Iranian activities
in Iraq, which resulted in the arrest of several Iranian officials
suspected of providing bomb-making materials during two American
military raids conducted over the past month. In addition to protests
from the Iranian and Iraqi governments, the operations ignited
speculation about possible American military incursions into Iran.

"The incremental raids and arrests may be aimed at provoking the
Iranians to respond, which in turn would escalate the situation and
provide the Bush administration with the casus belli it needs to win
Congressional support for war with Iran," said Trita Parsi, president
of the National Iranian American Council and an advocate of engaging
Tehran. "Instead of making the case for a pre-emptive war with Iran
over nuclear weapons, the sequence of events in the provocation and
escalation strategy would make it appear as if war was forced on the
U.S."

In another sign of the geopolitical realignment in the region,
London's Daily Telegraph reported last week that Bush had authorized
the CIA to take covert action to help the embattled Lebanese
government against Hezbollah, with the support of both Saudi Arabia
and Israel. The classified "non-lethal presidential finding"
reportedly allows the agency to provide financial and logistical
support to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora but bars the agency from
physically targeting Hezbollah officials.
--
Yoshie
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