[A-List] Heavy Sunni Turnout in the Iraq Election

["Sabri Oncu" <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

This is another of those instances when I would be very happy if my
prediction did not get realized!

Let us think about why Sunnies turned out in such numbers in this election: 

What happens if they do not get what they expect? 

I hope that they will but I have doubts, given their proportion in the Iraqi
population.

Sabri

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Heavy Sunni Turnout as Iraqis Vote for Parliament 
New York Times, December 15, 2005
By DEXTER FILKINS

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Dec. 15 - In a day remarkable for its calm, millions of
Iraqis from across the country cast ballots today to elect a parliament to a
four-year term, with Sunni Arabs turning out in what appeared to be very
heavy numbers and guerrillas mounting relatively few armed attacks.

Iraqi officials said initial indications were that as many as 11 million
people cast ballots, which, if the estimate holds true, would put the
overall turnout at more than 70 percent. With Iraqis still lining up to vote
in front of ballot centers as the sun went down, Iraqi officials ordered the
polls to stay open an extra hour.

The day was strikingly peaceful, even in areas normally beset by violence.
With more than 375,000 American and Iraqi troops and police officers fanned
out across the country, the American command here reported only 35 armed
attacks, about half the daily average, with only 14 against polling centers.
On Jan. 30, when Iraqis elected a transitional government, insurgents
attacked nearly 300 times.

Iraqis streamed to the polls in cities and villages across the country, some
bringing their children, some pushing wheelchairs, many dressed in their
finest clothes. With streets across the country closed to vehicular traffic,
many Iraqis milled about the streets after they cast their ballots, looking
on as their children played soccer.

The day's most dramatic events unfolded in the country's Sunni Arab
neighborhoods, where hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who had boycotted the
election in January came out this time to vote. Sunni neighborhoods in
Baghdad, like Adamiya, and in Kirkuk and Western Mosul, ordinarily tense and
bereft of security, were filled with Iraqis walking to polling centers and
lining up to cast their ballots.

Even in Anbar Province, where concerns about violence kept about a quarter
of the province's 207 polling sites closed, American Marine officers said
the voting far exceeded their expectations.

"Last time, if you voted, you died," said Abdul Jabbar Mahdi, a Sunni Arab
who brought his wife and three children to a polling station in the
ordinarily tense neighborhood of Adamiya. "God willing, this election will
lead to peace."

"I'm going to go and bring my mother," Mr. Jabbar said, and a few minutes
later he did, leading his 70-year-old mom into the polling place.

For a day, at least, many Iraqi Sunnis seemed won over, if not to the
American presence in their country, then to the idea that they could realize
their interests by the ballot and not the gun. The big Sunni turnout was
helped along by the declarations of several insurgent groups, like the
Islamic Army, that they would refrain from attacking polling centers. Even a
declaration by several hard-core militant groups like Al Qaeda in
Mesopotamia denouncing the election included no threats to attack on
election day.

The insurgents not only failed to stop the election, but it appears that
they did not even really try.

While it seemed doubtful that the calm would last, the day's events appeared
to be a significant triumph for Iraqi democrats and for the Bush
administration, which has long held that broadening the electoral process
would begin to draw ordinary Sunni Arabs away from the insurgency and
encourage them to support the success of democracy.

The comments by the Sunni voters, though anecdotal, suggested that a good
number of them had stayed away from the polls in January not because they
were disenchanted with the democratic process, but because they were afraid
of being killed.

Indeed, the apparent confusion within the insurgency has prompted American
diplomats to say they have succeeded in driving a wedge between the most
violent groups, like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, and the more
nationalist-minded ones, which the Americans and the Iraqis believe can
probably be accommodated.

The success of the elections, followed by a hoped-for drop in the violence,
underlies the Bush administration's tentative plans for carrying out
significant reductions in the number of American troops next year.

The electoral system now in place, which apportions parliamentary seats by
provinces, means that the Sunni Arabs will be far more likely than they were
in January to have representatives in numbers equal to their proportion of
the population, which is thought to be from 15 to 20 percent.

Iraqi officials said election results would probably not be available for
several days, possibly not even until January. Election workers began
counting ballots shortly after the polling centers closed. Once they finish,
they will send the vote totals to Baghdad, where election workers here will
add them up.

The election, carried off by the Iraqis with help from the Americans and the
United Nations, was, in a country at war, a logistical wonder. They opened
some 6,048 polling centers, which were attended by about 300,000 election
observers.

One notable change was relative invisibility of the American presence here,
another hoped-for blueprint of the future. Even in the calmest
neighborhoods, American soldiers, with their heavy weapons and armored
vehicles, are often unwelcome. Today, in Baghdad and other localities,
American troops stayed largely behind the scenes, while Iraqi troops took a
lead role in patrolling the streets.

Reporting for this article was contributed by John Burns from Baghdad; Ed
Wong from Kirkuk;Kirk Semple, Qais Mizher and Scott Nelson from Ramadi, and
Maria Newman from New York.