[A-List] Bolivia's Sunday Presidential Election: Blindly into the Breach

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Council On Hemispheric Affairs

*           Monitoring Political, Economic and Diplomatic Issues Affecting
the Western Hemisphere*
 *Memorandum to the Press **05.**118*

*Word Count: 1250*



   Bolivia's Sunday Presidential Elections: Blindly into the Breach

* Analysis prepared by COHA Research Associate Michael Lettieri
Thursday 15 December, 2005*

   -

   *If Bolivia manages to peacefully ride out its convoluted electoral
   process, stability is far from being guaranteed, even in the event of an Evo
   Morales victory.*
   -

   *Morales appears increasingly likely to win by a significant margin on
   December 18, probably by enough of a spread to effectively guarantee that
   Congress will confirm him in the runoff.*
   -

   *Simply winning the presidency will not end the challenges for Evo
   however, as he will likely be forced onto a pragmatic path that will be
   deeply unpopular with his basic constituency.*
   -

   *In the event that Evo is seen as reneging, poor and indigenous
   Bolivians won't hesitate for very long before taking to the streets and seek
   to depose him as they have done with several of his predecessors, an event
   also witnessed in neighboring Ecuador and Argentina.*

- ------------------------------

With only a few days to go until Bolivia's presidential ballot, Evo Morales
holds a substantial lead of around 5% over the conservative candidate Jorge
Quiroga, according to polls released on December 13. Morales has been
extending his lead for several weeks now, and the decline of another
right-center candidate ? Samuel Doria Medina ? has not noticeably benefited
Quiroga, suggesting the solidity of Evo's present strength. Since all
parties wish to avoid post-election strife, it seems increasingly likely
that in the certain congressional runoff (*see COHA's December 7 press
release for more information on the
process<http://www.coha.org/NEW_PRESS_RELEASES/New_Press_Releases_2005/05.117%20Bolivia%20Election.html>
*) Morales will wind up in the presidency. As the election nears, Morales
has been attempting to broaden his appeal, both moderating his rhetoric by
seeking to project a commitment to stability. Importantly, this effort may
be succeeding: on December 13 the military explicitly stated that the armed
forces would serve loyally under Evo, if he is installed as president.

*Full article...<http://www.coha.org/NEW_PRESS_RELEASES/New_Press_Releases_2005/05.118_Bolivia_Morales_Election.html>
*
- ------------------------------

*The Council on Hemispheric Affairs, founded in 1975, is an independent,
non-profit, non-partisan, tax-exempt research and information organization.
It has been described on the Senate floor as being "one of the nation's most
respected bodies of scholars and policy makers." For more information,
please see our web page at http://www.coha.org/ or contact our Washington
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