[A-List] US exclusion in East Asian regional co-operation

["Sabri Oncu" <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

East Asian integration is test for big powers
Financial Times, December 13, 2005 
By Amitav Acharya

In 1999, while recovering from the Asian financial crisis that wreaked havoc
on his country's economy, Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's then prime minister,
claimed that had a regional monetary fund existed, "the east Asian currency
crisis of 1997 and 1998 would not have occurred, would not have endured and
would not have gone to such ridiculous depths".

The idea of an Asian Monetary Fund had been proposed by Japan in 1997, but
like Dr Mahathir's own 1990 proposal for an east Asian economic grouping, it
had petered out in the face of stiff US opposition. In his memoirs, James
Baker, former US secretary of state, confessed to having done his "best to
kill" the Mahathir proposal, even though he took a "moderate line on (the)
idea in public". 

Is Dr Mahathir's vision about to become a reality? Today, Kuala Lumpur is
hosting the first east Asian summit, which brings together leaders of the 10
members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, plus Japan, China,
South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India. The "east Asia" represented
is, of course, a functional and political concept, rather than a geographic
or racial one. Moreover, unlike Dr Mahathir's vision of an east Asia led by
Japan, the current framework of east Asian regionalism sees China as the key
player.

Abdullah Badawi, the current prime minister of Malaysia, has described the
summit as a "leaders-led" summit. This implies that participants will engage
in real brainstorming and agenda-setting, not merely rubber-stamp decisions
made at earlier meetings of senior officials and ministers. But he could
have described the event with greater accuracy as a "leaderless summit",
because Asia's big powers - China, Japan and India - are constrained by
their rivalry from playing a genuine leadership role. Meanwhile, Asean
remains weakened by the 1997 crisis.

The summit comes at a time of growing regional economic interdependence. It
also reflects a common desire to avert and manage future crises induced by
financial volatility, pandemics, terrorism and natural disasters such as
last year's tsunami. A successful summit could generate the political will
for advancing regional co-operation. Moreover, to its advocates at least, an
east Asian framework has greater coherence than unwieldy Asia-Pacific
institutions such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, whose own
annual summit, held in South Korea last month, was attended by George W.
Bush, US president.

The exclusion of the US from the east Asia summit cuts both ways. It
projects a sense of east Asian identity, but causes some friends of America
to worry about Chinese dominance. Indeed, this concern is what prompted
Japan, Singapore and Indonesia to push for bringing India, Australia and New
Zealand into the summit.

To be sure, America's concerns about the summit will be well defended by its
friends, especially Japan, which under the Koizumi government has
strengthened its bilateral security alliance with the US. Japan (as well as
India) is interested in developing a future east Asian community through the
larger summit framework. By contrast, China would prefer to develop such a
community through the narrower Asean plus three (APT) process, which
excludes Australia, New Zealand and India.

Washington has been outwardly cool about the summit. Eric John, deputy
assistant secretary of state for east Asia, described the summit as too much
of a "black box" for Washington to even realise what it is missing out on.
But there remain in US policy circles long-term concerns about a regional
grouping that excludes the US.

Last June, Donald Rumsfeld, US secretary of defence, urged advocates of
Asian regional co-operation not to exclude the US. In a September speech,
Robert Zoellick, deputy secretary of state, warned that American concerns
about China "will grow if China seeks to manoeuvre toward a predominance of
power (in east Asia)". He instead urged Asean, Japan, Australia and others
to work with the US "for regional security and prosperity through the Asean
regional forum and the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation forum".

Hence, the Kuala Lumpur summit is not only a test of the region's ability to
engage China without courting its dominance. It may also be a means for some
of America's friends to remind Washington of the need to stay involved in
the region despite its preoccupation with Iraq and emerging signs of
isolationism in the American public.

The writer is deputy director of the -Institute of Defence and Strategic
Studies, Singapore. This article is based on a speech to the International
Institute for Strategic Studies in London