Re: [A-List] Peak oil angst hits the NYT

[craig duncan <craig-duncan@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Sabri Oncu wrote:
> Tony:
>
>
> > In short the advent of 'peak oil' and its likely associated
> > catastrophic economic and social disruption could potentially
>
>
> Exactly my point!
>
> We are all talking about expectations of the future.
>
> It is clear that Tony and Sabri, that is, you and I, have different
> expectations of the future. My subjective expectation on this matter,
> apparently in line with Henry's, is such that "peak oil" will not lead to
> any catastrophic economic and social disruption, potentially or not.

I agree with the idea that catastrophic disruptions are a matter of subjective
perception.  For many, catastrophic disruptions deriving from macro-economic
factors are already being experienced.  I would also tend to agree that the
probabilities are probably greater than not that the "over-privileged" will
not perceive the disruptions that occur as _catastrophic_ -- to them.

> And this debate, if it is a debate, is a battle for influencing the
> expectations of the "others", where I leave the definition of the "other"
> rather loose.
>
> I suggest that we free ourselves from this debate on expectations of the
> future.

Without "expectations" (probabilistic perceptions) about the future, how can
you avoid simply acting from a short-term perspective?  I would say it is the
hallmark of the age that we _need_ to think long-term (collectively) more than
ever.  Of course there is a strong desire to avoid the potential conflict that
often results from trying to come to a meeting  because of the difficulty of
doing this (and our psychological unreadiness for the task).