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[A-List] Analysis: Great Game In Central Asia

 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, August 02, 2005 10:20 AM
Subject: [stopnato] Analysis: US, Uzbekistan, SCO, Russia, China And Great Game In Central Asia

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20050802/41076262.html


Russian Information Agency (Novosti)
August 2, 2005


What stands behind Uzbekistan's demand to withdraw
U.S. base?
Alexei Makarkin 


-[T]he U.S. will want to have a transport
infrastructure for delivering troops to Afghanistan.
Another reason is a desire to reinforce its standing
in the region, pushing back Russia, whose traditional
sphere of influence includes Afghanistan, and China,
which has interests in Central Asia.
-The U.S. is now expected to shift its attention to
the base in Kyrgyzstan, which entails a complication,
as planes flying from it to Afghanistan will have to
refuel in the air. The Americans may therefore try to
create one more base in a former Soviet state,
possibly in Azerbaijan, under the pretext of ensuring
the security of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline.
-Karimov wants to show Russia (and China) that he has
burned the boats in relations with the U.S. It was his
"geopolitical present" for the support given to his
regime by the SCO countries after the Andijan crisis.



MOSCOW - The Big Game for control over Central Asia
has been going on for centuries.

The U.S. replaced Britain after it lost its imperial
ambitions, and countries that appeared on the world
map only in the 20th century have become independent
players in this game.

The recent events in the region - the summit of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Astana, the
regional tour by U.S. Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld, and Uzbekistan's demand to pull out the
American base within six months - marked a new stage
in the Big Game where every player has his own
interests.

The U.S. wants to preserve its military-political
presence in the region after "appeasing" Afghanistan.
The first reason for this is that the regime of
President Hamid Karzai will hardly be strengthened by
the parliamentary election set for the coming fall,
and the U.S. will want to have a transport
infrastructure for delivering troops to Afghanistan.
Another reason is a desire to reinforce its standing
in the region, pushing back Russia, whose traditional
sphere of influence includes Afghanistan, and China,
which has interests in Central Asia.

Rumsfeld came to the region to prop up Washington's
positions in Kyrgyzstan and, if possible, in
Uzbekistan, shaken by the SCO's recommendation to the
U.S. to set the deadline for its military bases in the
region.

The Pentagon chief was assured that the U.S. would
remain in Kyrgyzstan. But the attempt to keep the base
in Uzbekistan was complicated by Washington's desire
to force Islam Karimov to promote democracy [as
Washington defines it] in his country. As a result,
Karimov demanded an unexpectedly quick pullout of the
base.

The U.S. is now expected to shift its attention to the
base in Kyrgyzstan, which entails a complication, as
planes flying from it to Afghanistan will have to
refuel in the air. The Americans may therefore try to
create one more base in a former Soviet state,
possibly in Azerbaijan, under the pretext of ensuring
the security of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

Russia is playing its own part in the Big Game. It
does not want to publicly quarrel with the U.S. by
forcing its bases out of the region, as this may
provoke accusations of torpedoing the
counter-terrorist coalition. Russia's goal is to
ensure that the US bases are pulled out after the
Afghan operation.

This stand corresponds to the opinion expressed at the
SCO summit in Astana. The prolongation of the U.S.
base in Kyrgyzstan, provided it is linked to the
operation in Afghanistan, does not contradict Russia's
long-term interests within the SCO strategy. In
addition, Russia wants to preserve its military
presence in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The sensational decision by Uzbekistan to demand the
withdrawal of the American base means that Tashkent is
acting in its own interests but is also showing its
pro-Russian sentiments increasingly openly. This suits
Moscow, which is not responsible for the actions of
Islam Karimov and, as far as can be judged, did not
encourage him to take such a harsh decision.

Karimov wants to show Russia (and China) that he has
burned the boats in relations with the U.S. It was his
"geopolitical present" for the support given to his
regime by the SCO countries after the Andijan crisis.

The Americans softened their criticism of Karimov
before Rumsfeld's visit, but this did not change the
stand of Tashkent. The Uzbek leader knows very well
that the U.S. will continue pressing him to promote
democracy in the country. In this situation,
Americans' assistance in airlifting Uzbek refugees
from Kyrgyzstan to Romania became an additional
irritant for Tashkent, who had made a decision of
principle on the matter.

Now for the interests of other states. The new
leadership of Kyrgyzstan is trying to develop balanced
relations with Moscow and Washington. The U.S. plans
to grant Kyrgyzstan an interest-free loan of $200
million, which amounts to 60% of the republican
budgetary revenues, in return for the preservation of
the base.

Tajikistan is mostly pro-Russian.

China has been trying to strengthen its influence in
Kyrgyzstan, to no avail so far. "The issue of the
deployment of a Chinese military base in Kyrgyzstan
was discussed at a very high level, but Kyrgyzstan's
position is clear-cut: we do not plan to turn the
country into a military-political range," said acting
vice-premier Adakhan Madumarov.

Besides, there are no visible differences in Moscow's
and Beijing's attitudes to regional problems.

The Big Game in Central Asia is waged with mixed
success and mostly under the carpet. The results of
bargaining held behind closed doors seldom become
public knowledge, but it appears that competition
between the players will grow. China will hardly
abandon the idea of gaining a military-political
foothold there. And the U.S. will work hard to remain
in Kyrgyzstan even after the "appeasement" of
Afghanistan.

Alexei Makarkin is deputy general director of the
Center of Political Technologies




           
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