[A-List] Iraq: Lancet article controversy

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Dispute over toll of casualties
WILLIAM TINNING
The Herald, December 08 2004

IT was one of the most contentious claims of a highly controversial war.

The Lancet medical journal used its website last October to publish a claim
that an estimated 100,000 more Iraqi civilians had died since the US-led
invasion than would have died under Saddam Hussein's rule.

The figure was far higher than any previous guess. The Baghdad-based Iraqi
Human Rights Organisation had estimated that a total of 30,000 civilians had
perished in the offensive.

Tony Blair rejected the Lancet report, but the leading figures who wrote to
him yesterday seeking an independent inquiry into the number of civilian
deaths in Iraq said the PM had not produced a "comparable assessment".

The journal's figures were controversial, and debate focused on whether a
sample size of 7800 people used by a team of US and Iraqi academics was
sufficiently large, and whether 33 neighbourhoods chosen were fairly
representative of the rest of the country.

There was no official figure for Iraqis killed when the study was published,
but non-governmental estimates ranged from 10,000 to 30,000 with violence -
especially air strikes - accounting for most of the extra deaths, said
researchers from John Hopkins University, Columbia University, and the al
Mustansiriya University in Baghdad.

There was also controversy at the timing of the Lancet figure's publication,
shortly before the US election. Les Roberts, lead researcher, said at the
time that this was his decision. "I e-mailed it on September 30 on the
condition it came out before the election," he said. "My motive was not to
skew the election. I was opposed to the war and I still think it was a bad
idea, but I think our science has transcended our perspectives.

"As an American, I am really, really sorry to be reporting this."

A spokesman for Mr Blair said that the government had a number of "concerns
and difficulties" about the methodology used for the investigation into the
number of civilians killed in the war.

He claimed the findings were based on extrapolation, and treated Iraq as if
it were all the same in terms of the level of the conflict, even though it
had largely centred on hotspots such as Falluja.

The following is the full text of the letter to Tony Blair calling for an
inquiry into civilian deaths

Dear Prime Minister,

The medical journal the Lancet recently published a study that estimates the
post-invasion Iraqi death toll at 98,000. The same study reported that the
risk of death from violence among Iraqis is vastly higher than it was before
the war began. You have rejected these findings, but offer no comparable
assessment of your own.
As you know, your government is obliged under international humanitarian law
to protect the civilian population during military operations in Iraq, and
you have consistently promised to do so. However, without counting the dead
and injured, no-one can know whether Britain and its coalition partners are
meeting these obligations.

We therefore urge you immediately to commission a comprehensive, independent
inquiry to determine with the greatest possible accuracy how many Iraqis
have died or been injured since March 2003 - and the cause of those
casualties.

The inquiry should be independent of government, conducted according to
accepted scientific methods and subjected to peer review so that all parties
can be confident of the findings. It should report regularly to parliament
and the public for as long as British forces remain in Iraq.

Yours sincerely,

Air Marshal the Lord Garden KCB, Visiting Professor, Centre for Defence
Studies, King's College London;
The Rt Hon the Lord Rea; General Sir Hugh Beach GBE KCB MC, Former Master
General of the Ordnance, British Army; Sir Brian Barder, Former British
Ambassador to Ethiopia, Poland and the Republic of Benin, and British High
Commissioner in Nigeria and Australia; Sir Stephen Egerton, Former
Ambassador to Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Italy; Robin Kealy, HM Diplomatic
Service (retd) Ambassador to Tunisia 2001-2004;
Oliver Miles, Former Ambassador to Libya, Luxembourg and Greece; Sir David
Ratford, Deputy Political Director, FCO 1987-90, Ambassador to Norway
1990-94; Lord Bishop of Coventry, Rt Rev Colin Bennetts, Chairman of the
Church of England's Partnership for World Mission; Iqbal Sacranie, Secretary
General, Muslim Council of Britain; Dr Daud Abdullah, Assistant Secretary
General, Muslim Council of Britain; Dr Rosemary Hollis; Elizabeth
Wilmshurst; Bianca Jagger, Human rights campaigner, Council of Europe
Goodwill Ambassador; Tony Fletcher, PhD, President, International Society
for Environmental Epidemiology 2004-5, Public and Environmental Health
Research Unit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Professor
Martin McKee, European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition, London
School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Professor James McEwen; Emeritus
Professor in Public Health, University of Glasgow; Klim McPherson, FFPH
FMedSci, Visiting Professor of Public Health Epidemiology, Churchill
Hospital, Oxford; Jerry Morris, Emeritus Professor of Public Health, Public
& Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine; Ian Roberts, Professor of Epidemiology and Public Heath, London
School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Dr Alex Scott-Samuel, Senior Lecturer
in Public Health, University of Liverpool;
Gill Walt, Professor of International Health Policy, London School of
Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Eileen O'Keefe, Senior Lecturer in Philosophy &
Health Policy, London Metropolitan University; Walter Armbrust, Director,
Middle East Centre, St Antony's College, Oxford; Alex Danchev, Professor of
International Relations, University of Nottingham; Dr Eric Herring; Senior
Lecturer in International Politics, University of Bristol; Dr Clive Jones,
Institute for Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds;
Professor Colin McInnes, Director, Centre for Health and International
Relations, University of Wales Aberystwyth; Turi Munthe, Head, Middle East &
North Africa Programme, Royal United Services Institute for Defence and
Security Studies; Dr Gerd Nonneman, Reader in International Relations &
Middle East Politics, Lancaster University; Martin Shaw, Professor of
International Relations & Politics, University of Sussex; Avi Shlaim,
Professor of International Relations, St Antony's College Oxford; Paul
Williams, Lecturer in Security Studies, University of Birmingham; Dr Eddie
Coyle, Consultant in Public Health Medicine, Wales Centre for Health,
Velindre NHS Trust, NHS Wales; Philip Leach, Senior Lecturer in Law, London
Metropolitan University; Jonathan Rosenhead,
Emeritus Professor of Operational Research, London School of Economics;
Professor John O'Keefe, FRS, FAMS, University College London; Professor Tim
Valentine,Department of Psychology, Goldsmiths College; Richard Norman,
Professor of Moral Philosophy, University of Kent; Dr Mary Midgley, Moral
Philosopher; Dr Susie Orbach, Psychotherapist and writer, Visiting
Professor, London School of Economics; Harold Pinter, Writer; Linda Grant,
Writer; Gillian Slovo, Writer; Bishop of Oxford Richard Harries; Labour peer
Baroness Helena Kennedy QC.