Re: [A-List] Russia: Putin's promises

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Untimely Thoughts
http://www.untimely-thoughts.com
Vol 2 no 73 (120) Putin's Address
May 26, 2004
By Peter Lavelle, plavelle@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

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Commentary: What Putin didn't say
By Peter Lavelle
Published on May 26, 2004
MOSCOW, May 26 (UPI) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual
state of the nation address Wednesday. As usual, he was long on ideas and
short on specifics.

Focused overwhelmingly on domestic and economic issues, with some passing
remarks on foreign policy, he kept to his past practice of defining Russia's
present and future goals as well as informing the government what he expects from
it.

The 47-minute address to both houses of parliament and honored guests was a
cross between a re-affirmation of Putin's "New Deal" for Russia started four
years ago and a Communist Party general secretary reading a checklist of
achievements and goals to a Party Central Committee of times long past.

Covered live by Russian television, it was easy to detect that the address
put a number of prominent lawmakers and dignitaries to sleep. However, sleep
might have been a natural response -- those present probably knew the script in
advance.

With the exception of a rumor started earlier in the week by an obscure
UK-based Web site called "Russian Axis" -- which predicted Putin would announce an
all-out offensive against the super-rich called the oligarchs -- most analysts
and Russia-watchers expected Putin to focus on the economy, particularly his
two pet projects of quickly doubling gross national product and his
self-styled war on Russia's pervasive poverty.

Putin performance was predictable. Calling Russia today "stable and
independent," his pitch was clearly aimed at speaking to the average Russian. Putin
said, "The main national objectives are to double GDP in a decade, to reduce
poverty, to increase the people's standard of living and to modernize the army."

Probably the most important sentence found in the address is how Putin hopes
Russians can look to the future: "Now, for the first time in a long period of
time, we can plan our life not just several months or even a year, but a
decade ahead."

To secure a stable future, Putin read off a checklist of all that needs to be
done during his second term in office, what could be called his "Four Year
Plan" or "the Putin legacy."

Claiming that the government and business need clear rules of engagement to
protect the rights of the state and entrepreneurs, he expects both sectors to
work together to dramatically improve health care, education, repair the
country's aging transport infrastructure, and diversify the economy away from heavy
dependence on the cash-rich oil sector.

Putin's agenda is ambitious. However, he was vague on how Russia would reach
these goals or how it would be funded.

Not confining himself to economics, Putin also addressed what many in the
Western media believe is the Kremlin's greatest weakness: the present and future
condition of Russia's civil society and democracy.

"This task is difficult because freedom is not always appreciated, and not
everybody knows how to use it," Putin said. He added, "Creative energy,
initiative, a sense of moderation and striving for victory cannot be introduced by a
decree or imported. While trying to raise citizens' living standards, we will
continue to preserve and defend the democratic achievements of the new Russia.
We will make the state more secure and seek a civilized solution to key issues
of global policy on the basis of international law."

Again, Putin was crystal clear on how he foresees Russia's democratic
development, though without any concrete policy proposals.

What Putin didn't comment on is the single most important issue discussed by
many thinking about Russia's future: the Kremlin's very aggressive assault on
the oligarchs.

Two oligarchs are set to go on trial in the next few weeks for tax evasion,
fraud, and charges of being part of a "organized criminal group." Another is
suddenly leaving the country after being questioned by the Prosecutor General's
office. Still another is accused of bankrupting a region while buying a
English football team. Yet another is rumored to be the next victim of the Kremlin's
designs to eliminate oligarchic control of the economy.

Getting rid of oligarchy and the oligarchs is not necessarily a bad idea.
Even a recent World Bank report claims oligarch control of the economy hinders
Russia's economic competitiveness. What is not a good idea is all of the
uncertainty surrounding the offensive against the oligarchs. This uncertainty
undermines the atmosphere of openness and predictability Putin so vigorously
attempted to convey in his address.

In retrospect, maybe the rumor that Putin was going to unveil his true
intentions about the oligarchs would have been a more meaningful address to the
nation. Clearly, it is the Kremlin's plan to recapture state assets sold for a
song or simply stolen during the 1990s. A well thought out plan to do this, while
enshrining a precise definition of property rights, is in everyone's
long-term interests.

Until the Kremlin makes clear its true economic objectives and clear legal
attitude toward the caste called the oligarchs, a great deal of what Putin said
today will remain less than believable, as well as cast doubts on his vision
for Russia.