[A-List] Venezuela: class divisions & referendum

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Leftwing dictator or saviour of the poor: Chávez faces new challenge to his
rule

Oil-rich Venezuela is split over an attempt this week to secure a referendum
to oust the controversial president

Sibylla Brodzinsky in Carácas
Tuesday May 25, 2004
The Guardian

Not even the birds in Venezuela are indifferent to the country's
controversial president, Hugo Chávez. In the modest brick home of Cármen
Aquiles, which clings to the hills on the western edge of Carácas's
sprawling slums, one of her brilliant green-plumed parrots spontaneously
breaks into its owner's favourite chant: " Ooh aah, Chávez no se va! "
(Chávez isn't going).

It is music to the ears of Ms Aquiles, a tough 52-year-old grandmother and
community organiser in her neighbourhood, El Guanábano. She and her family
are fervent supporters of the firebrand left-leaning president and his
self-styled revolution.

"Chávez is the only president ever to work for us, the poor people," she
says in the living room of her home, where a framed picture of the president
is on prominent display.

But while Ms Aquiles sees the president as a saviour, others regard him as a
budding dictator whom they want ousted.

In its last chance to remove the president constitutionally, the opposition
this week hopes to be able to validate more than a million signatures on a
petition to trigger a recall vote against Mr Chávez.

It may also be the last chance to avoid a civil war, experts say. In a
country so deeply polarised over the president, the potential for violence
is high. Dozens of people have died in clashes between pro- and anti-Chávez
groups during the past several years. The latest deaths came in February,
when at least 14 people died in opposition demonstrations and as many as 200
were wounded. Several of those detained were ill-treated or tortured by
members of the security forces, according to Amnesty International.

Mr Chávez, a paratroop commander responsible for one failed coup attempt,
was elected in 1998 by a large majority of Venezuelans frustrated with the
country's corrupt politics. But his support began to dwindle when his
discourse became more left-leaning and he began attacking what he calls the
"rancid oligarchy". Many fear that his friendship with Fidel Castro could
herald a Cuban-style socialist system for Venezuela, and worry about his
apparent sympathy with neighbouring Colombia's leftwing rebels.

General strike

The opposition used street demonstrations to try to force his resignation
and last year staged a two-month general strike that paralysed the economy,
but only led him to tighten his grip on power.

Spray-painted on the walls of Carácas's eastern neighbourhoods where the
middle and upper classes live, is the cryptic message "RR or 350". Residents
explain: either they get a recall referendum or they will apply article 350
of the constitution, which says that Venezuelans can rise up against any
regime that violates democracy or human rights.

"If there is no referendum, there could be civil war, with thousands of
deaths," says Dino Magnificó, a 70-ish Italian immigrant, sitting at a
placid cafe in the Bello Campo neighbourhood. His opinion echoes a warning
from the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based thinktank, in a recent
report on Venezuela.

Analysts, and even some opposition members, say the cards are so stacked
against them that the likelihood of a referendum is low. "It's like getting
in the ring with a boxer who has bought the referee, paid off the spectators
and is going to bite your ear off," says Michael Rowan, an American
political strategist who has lived in Venezuela for more than 30 years.

The opposition accuses Mr Chávez of manipulating the process for a recall
vote, enshrined in the 2000 constitution for any elected figure who is
halfway through his term. They complain that the election board controlled
by his supporters has changed the rules repeatedly. The board questioned the
validity of more than 1 million of the signatures collected in the petition
drive last year, leading to the verification process this weekend. The
opposition needs 2.4 million valid signatures to trigger a referendum.

The arrest in Venezuela this month of more than 100 suspected Colombian
paramilitaries who the government says were recruited to assassinate him, is
seen by the opposition as an attempt to divert attention from the referendum
issue and to round up dissidents. Police have arrested at least seven
military officers and several civilians since the alleged plot was foiled.

It would not be the first time the Chávez regime has been threatened. Mr
Chávez was ousted briefly in April 2002 by a military rebellion, but
returned to power two days later.

Broad coalition

Timoteo Zambrano, a leader of a broad coalition of opposition political
parties, business organisations, labour unions and civic groups known as the
Democratic Coordinator, says if the election board fails to recognise the
signatures as valid, or if the government somehow manages to manipulate the
outcome of the signature verification drive, the organisation will
concentrate on elections in 2006, when Mr Chávez's term ends.

But he warns there is no telling what individuals will do. "Once you close
off democratic and constitutional avenues, people look for other ways to
achieve their goals." He calls Mr Chávez's government a "constitutional
dictatorship".

For all his vitriolic rhetoric against the US and George Bush, Washington
has so far failed to engage Mr Chávez directly in the fight. However, the US
Congress has funded some opposition groups through a non-governmental
organisation.

As long as the oil keeps flowing from the world's fifth largest petroleum
exporter to the US, and American companies get lucrative production
contracts from the state-owned oil com pany, Washington does not appear
overly willing to confront Mr Chávez.

Mr Chávez was wildly popular when he was first elected in 1998 on promises
to tear down Venezuela's corrupt political system. He managed to push
through a new constitution which expanded presidential power, but his
approval ratings dipped to 30% last year. That was when his government
decided to start making good on its promises to help the poor.

A series of Cuban-style literacy drives and free neighbourhood health
clinics run by Cuban doctors were launched in the poorest barrios. People
are grateful and approval ratings have jumped back to a more comfortable
40%.

The programmes have swayed some of Mr Chávez's former opponents. Irma
Doudier's hair is thinning, she is missing most of her bottom teeth and her
skin is dry and cracked. But she is a vibrant community leader in the
Barrios Unidos shanty town.

A lifelong member of Copei, one of the two traditional political parties
that are part of the opposition, Ms Doudier, 60, signed the petition against
Mr Chávez last year. But she says she will withdraw it next weekend.

"Community work has no ideology. The government has given things for the
community. It is helping my people with its missions," she says. "Whoever
gives us what we need, that is who I'm for."

But Luis Contréras, an upmarket butcher, differs. "I signed of course," he
says. "But apparently there was some problem with my signature, so I will go
and verify it. I'm proud to have signed. We've got to get that crazy man
out."