[A-List] Pro-War Bush, Kerry Both 'Losing The 2004 Presidential Election'

[Rick Rozoff <r_rozoff@xxxxxxxxx>]

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1083180429244&p=1012571727172


Financial Times
May 11, 2004


Kerry avoids anti-war campaigning
By James Harding in Washington


-The Massachusetts senator, who has argued for sending
more troops to Iraq, has said "it would be unthinkable
now for us to retreat in disarray and leave behind a
society deep in strife and dominated by radicals".
-In fact, the latest polls tell an "impossible, but
true" story: both Mr Bush and Mr Kerry are losing the
2004 presidential election.
-Most significantly, support for the war in Iraq has
also slipped to 44 per cent - a new low.
Mr Kerry, however, has been unable to translate this
drift away from the president into a significant shift
behind his candidacy.
-Opposition to the war threatens to undermine Mr
Kerry's chances. Ralph Nader, the independent
candidate, has called for a pull-out and has seen his
polls support rise from 3 per cent to 5-7 per cent -
largely at the expense of Mr Kerry.




While America has been talking about little other than
the violation of Iraqi detainees, John Kerry has been
out on the road mostly speaking about something else.

The Democratic presidential candidate was in
Louisville, Kentucky, on Tuesday discussing
healthcare. Last week, when the country was convulsed
by pictures of torture at Abu Ghraib prison, Mr
Kerry's subject was high schools.

For a presidential challenger under attack for his
invisibility, Mr Kerry has made a strategic decision
to cultivate regional media coverage by talking about
concerns close to home, say campaign aides.

But the most recent polling data have prompted the
question that there may at least be an argument for Mr
Kerry to consider the "Zapatero option": campaigning
for office, as the newly elected Spanish prime
minister did, on an anti-war platform.

The Massachusetts senator, who has argued for sending
more troops to Iraq, has said "it would be unthinkable
now for us to retreat in disarray and leave behind a
society deep in strife and dominated by radicals".

Mr Kerry's aides insist there is no chance he will
switch positions. But as the death toll has risen in
Iraq and as the images of torture at Abu Ghraib have
tipped the majority of Americans against the war, Mr
Kerry's current position appears to be doing little to
help him capitalise on President George W. Bush's
biggest problem.

In fact, the latest polls tell an "impossible, but
true" story: both Mr Bush and Mr Kerry are losing the
2004 presidential election.

The "right track-wrong track" surveys of public
opinion, the most closely watched by the White House,
have shown that 58-62 per cent of people think the
country is on the wrong track.

Tuesday's Gallup poll showed Mr Bush's approval rating
had fallen to 46 per cent, the lowest level of his
presidency. Since 1950, such a low approval rating at
this stage in the presidential race has always spelled
defeat for the incumbent.

Most significantly, support for the war in Iraq has
also slipped to 44 per cent - a new low.

Mr Kerry, however, has been unable to translate this
drift away from the president into a significant shift
behind his candidacy.

John Zogby, the pollster, says there would be a
mathematical logic to calling for withdrawal. "His
support corresponds almost in a one-on-one ratio with
those who oppose the war."

Given the highly polarised electorate, Democrats are
bound to support him and Republicans will inevitably
vote against him, but the 10-15 per cent undecided
voters are critical. The limited polling of
independent voters suggests many, if not most of them,
are anti-war.

Opposition to the war threatens to undermine Mr
Kerry's chances. Ralph Nader, the independent
candidate, has called for a pull-out and has seen his
polls support rise from 3 per cent to 5-7 per cent -
largely at the expense of Mr Kerry.

Karlyn Bowman, polling expert at the American
Enterprise Institute, says it remains highly unlikely
that Mr Kerry will shift his position on the war, but
"it depends how worried he is about Ralph Nader. I
would not make any radical change right now, but I
might get some people to do some homework on how to do
it if I were going to do it."

The pundits and left-leaning political advisers, too,
are almost unanimous in advising Mr Kerry against
advocating withdrawal. "He has got several problems if
he does that," says Norm Ornstein, political scientist
also at the American Enterprise Institute.

"The first is the flip-flop charge. The second is that
it might create serious problems for his image as a
tough guy on national security issues."

The polls show Mr Kerry is gradually eroding Mr Bush's
lead on national security, Iraq and terrorism.
Increasingly, the economy is becoming Mr Bush's asset.










	
		
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