[A-List] EU integration struggles: the new Commission

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

This looks like a very astute move by Blair to shore up the UK position
within the EU, and indeed the EU's position within the UK. No doubt he is
trying to persuade Germany and France that fuller UK participation in the EU
is more likely if Blair can convince the electorate that British interests
are being defended and advanced. Having a British commission president would
make such a position easier to sell, and Patten's Conservative Party past
makes him sufficiently inclusive to cause all sorts of problems for the
europhobes. Clever stuff, and ought to give the xenophobic press something
to chew over.

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EU leaders deadlocked over Patten presidency
By Stephen Castle in Dublin
The Independent, 03 May 2004

Leaders of the European Union are deadlocked over who should be the next
president of the European Commission after the surprise emergence of Chris
Patten, the commissioner for external relations, as a likely candidate.

Informal discussions at an EU summit in Dublin failed to yield a frontrunner
to succeed Romano Prodi, who stands down in October.

While Downing Street officials have said that no decision has been taken on
who the British Government would back for the position, it was made clear
that Mr Patten was someone it "could do business with".

Mr Patten, who is scheduled to serve as a British commissioner at the EU
until September, is known to be close to Tony Blair, and as a former
chairman of the Conservative Party could be used to show that the European
project has cross-party support.

One EU official said of the presidency yesterday: "Obviously these things
were discussed but they are nowhere near the point of agreement. Things have
yet to coalesce around one person."

After a ceremonial dinner in Dublin, Mr Blair held brief talks with the
German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, whose role in the selection of the next
Commission president will be crucial.

However there were no discussions with Jacques Chirac, the French President,
who is likely to be the main roadblock between Mr Patten and the ?20,000
(£13,500) a month post.

During the Dublin summit, called to celebrate the EU's expansion, progress
was made over the EU's stalled draft constitution in talks between Bertie
Ahern, the Prime Minister of Ireland, which holds the EU presidency, and the
new Spanish premier, José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. A detailed plan on how to
break a log-jam over the issue of voting weights is likely to be discussed
between the two on 14 May.

Another outstanding problem is close to resolution after the Irish premier
said that the words "Christian traditions and Christian values" would
probably be included in the preamble of the draft constitution - though
without an explicit reference to God.

Anti-globalisers mounted protests on Saturday, and police said they made 29
arrests and that one police woman was injured in clashes which prompted the
use of water cannon in the Irish Republic for the first time.

The EU leaders need to agree in June on who should take on the job. The
successful candidate is expected to come from the centre-right, in deference
to its likely victory in June's European elections.

To have a Briton win the job of the commission presidency would be a huge
coup for Mr Blair and would help him in the run-up to the referendum on the
constitution.

Germany would probably be content to agree to Mr Patten if one of its
nationals takes the role of super-commissioner in charge of economic policy.
But M. Chirac's favourites for president are the Luxembourg premier,
Jean-Claude Juncker, the Belgian Prime Minister, Guy Verhofstadt, and
Antonio Vitorino, Portugal's commissioner. Mr Juncker is from the centre
right, but he has ruled himself out.

The only other centre-right candidate is Austria's Wolfgang Schüssel, but he
is a controversial figure because of his coalition with the far-right
Freedom Party of Jörg Haider.

In order for Mr Patten to succeed, France would have to be compensated in
the form of another senior post. And Mr Blair would be under pressure to
make concessions over the constitution; "everything has a cost," said one
official.

Appointing a Briton to the top EU job would prove problematic given that the
UK is outside the euro, and given what one EU official described as its
"overall profile" in the union. But since the EU's expansion, most EU
countries are outside the eurozone. And, while Mr Patten may not be France's
preferred candidate, his criticism of the Bush administration over Iraq has
showed that he is not a Trojan horse for the US.

Despite public statements of reticence, Mr Patten, who is 60 this month, is
ready to accept the prestigious post if other member states agreed.

The Irish presidency is likely to be favourable to a Patten candidature,
given his role in Northern Ireland, where he was a junior minister in the
Northern Ireland Office.

Mr Patten, a Catholic, also wrote the report that led to reform of the Royal
Ulster Constabulary as the Police Service of Northern Ireland.