[A-List] Spain: geopolitical realignment?

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

This will prove interesting -- how Zapatero can engineer this whilst Bush is
in office and able to use whatever levers are there to bring "allies" to
heel. The promise of consensus-building with the PP does not bode well. Also
of note: the reappearance of Peter Hain, who, as a junior Foreign Office
minister, was in charge of negotiations over Gibraltar for the British.
Blair's position again looks shaky, but there is a potential successor who
could repair the damage, should that prove necessary.

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New PM promises realignment in Europe

Zapatero signals move away from US

Giles Tremlett in Madrid
Monday March 15, 2004
The Guardian

When he ordered the crowd of flag-waving supporters at his headquarters to
stop their celebrations and stand silent for a minute's homage to Madrid's
dead and injured last night José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was starting what
he pledged would be a new style of government.

Where the past four heavy-handed years of José María Aznar's People's party
had seen increasingly bitter and divisive splits between Spaniards, be they
left or right, Madrileño or Basque and Catalan, the 43-year-old lawyer who
will now lead Spain has promised dialogue, debate and healing.

The first people to be cared for, he said, were the families of the dead,
those still missing relatives and those still battling for their lives or
recovering from ghastly, life-changing injuries in hospital. But the main
task, he said, was to fight terrorism wherever it raises its ugly head.

This will necessarily mean forging relationships with other world leaders,
though Spain's place in the world may be about to change dramatically with
Mr Zapatero at the helm. He has already said he wants George Bush to lose
the presidential elections, so he will have no friend there.

As for Tony Blair, he had already welcomed Mariano Rajoy, Mr Aznar's
successor, to Downing Street before the elections. Mr Blair's friendship
with Mr Aznar has always irked Spain's socialists, some of whom see him as a
traitor of the left.

Yesterday the leader of the house, Peter Hain, promised that relations with
Spain would be unaffected by the change in government.

"The coalition, the unity between Spain and Britain has been one of the
driving forces for economic and political reform in Europe and I'm sure that
will continue," he said.

The big question on foreign policy remains whether Mr Zapatero sticks to his
guns and withdraws Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq if the UN does not take
control by June 30. The crowds outside his party headquarters shouting "No
to war!" last night will certainly expect that. In Europe, Mr Zapatero can
be expected to move closer to France and Germany, though Spain's record as a
tough partner that fights its corner hard in the EU is unlikely to change.

It is at home, however, that Mr Zapatero hopes to make the biggest
difference.

He wants to cure Spain of those angry splits which have made the country
turn against itself under the stern, dour leadership of the hawkish Mr
Aznar.

That may be easier said than done, however, not least because he cannot
govern on his own. Twelve seats short of an absolute majority as the final
votes were counted last night, he must find someone else to support him from
an array of leftist and regionalist parties.

The confrontation between central government and regions, such as Catalonia
and the Basque country, demanding a further extension of already
considerable powers of semi-autonomous government have reached levels of
previously unseen bitterness.

In the Basque country, regional premier Juan José Ibarretxe has a plan for
turning the region into a "free associate" of Spain that has the support of
one half of the Basque parliament and the absolute rejection of the other
half.

Catalonia expects the outflow of power from Madrid that started more than
two decades ago to continue.

Mr Zapatero has insisted that he wants to reach consensus with the People's
party on "matters of state", including terrorism, possible constitutional
reform and new powers for the autonomous regions. Will the People's party,
wounded and perhaps furious at the allegations that it had tried to hide the
truth about Thursday's bombings, let him?

A gracious speech by Mr Rajoy, in which he accepted defeat, signalled,
perhaps, that the old, aggressive, battling Aznar style, so thoroughly
rejected at the ballot box, may disappear. Or not.

Mr Aznar lost, in part, because he made his party the holder of the only
acceptable opinion on terrorism, especially with Eta, on whom his government
seemed determined to pin the blame for Thursday's attack.

When Eta tried to blow him up in 1995, his advisers reportedly predicted
that it would help launch him into the prime minister's Moncloa palace,
which he first occupied the following year.

A second, much crueller terrorist attack has provided a tragic end to his
eight-year stretch as Spain's first and, so far, only, rightwing premier
since the death of General Franco. It was a cruel, and undoubtedly painful,
goodbye.

Profile
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, 43
Profession Lawyer
Family Grandson of a republican army officer shot during the civil war.
Career Joined Socialist party at age 18. Spain's youngest MP at 26. Rose
through ranks under then prime minister Felipe González. Took over party
helm in July 2000, after heavy election defeat.
Government experience None
Stances Anti Iraq-war: recently promised to pull 1,300 Spanish troops out by
end of June if the UN does not take charge; backed tough line towards Eta;
moderate renowned for calmness
Status Married, two daughters
Personal Teetotaller who professes not to enjoy food; likes fishing
Criticism Some say Mr Zapatero lacks the killer instinct and point to his
previous failure while opposition leader to capitalise on a string of
unpopular moves by the Popular party, including a bungled labour reform, an
oil spill and the war in Iraq.
For some, Mr Zapatero's lack of aggression was exemplified in a recent
television interview.
When asked what he would do if confronted by the leader of Eta in the
street, Mr Zapatero replied: "I would not look him in the face."