[A-List] Iraq: the quagmire deepens

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Taken in tandem with the Jim Lobe article about the "return" of James Baker
to prominence, this could indicate the emergence of an ascendant faction
within the administration and perhaps further beyond preparing for a
resurrection of the logic of the first Bush administration's conclusion of
"Desert Storm" -- allowing a powerful central authority (then Saddam) to
consolidate the territorial integrity of Iraq, by any means necessary.

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Secret report warns of Iraq 'Balkanisation'
By Nicolas Pelham in Baghdad
Financial Times: February 13 2004

A confidential report prepared by the US-led administration in Iraq says
that the attacks by insurgents in the country have escalated sharply,
prompting fears of what it terms Iraq's "Balkanisation". The findings
emerged after a rocket-propelled grenade attack on the top US general in
Iraq, John Abizaid, on Thursday.

"January has the highest rate of violence since September 2003," the report
said. "The violence continues despite the expansion of the Iraqi security
services and increased arrests by coalition forces in December and January."

The report, which is based on military data and circulated to foreign
organisations by the US aid agency USAid, diverges with public statements by
US officials who claim that security in the country is improving.

"The security risks are not as bad as they appear on TV," Tom Foley, the
coalition official overseeing Iraq's private-sector development, said at the
US Commerce Department headquarters in Washington on Wednesday. "Western
civilians are not the targets themselves. These are acceptable risks."

According to the report, "January national review of Iraq", strikes against
international and non-governmental organisations increased from 19 to 26 in
January. It said that high-intensity attacks involving mortars and
explosives grew by 103 per cent from 316 in December to 642 in January;
non-life threatening attacks, including drive-by shootings and
rock-throwing, soared by 186 per cent from 182 in December. It also recorded
an average of eight attacks a day in Baghdad alone, up from four a day in
September, and a total of 11 attacks on coalition aircraft.

The report emerged as Iraq faced one of its worst weeks of violence in the
10-month occupation of Iraq. According US military officials, General
Abizaid escaped unharmed but cancelled a walkabout, after attackers hiding
in a mosque fired on his convoy as it entered a military base in the town of
Falluja, west of Baghdad. It was not clear if the insurgents knew they were
targeting Gen Abizaid and officials said a six-minute gun-battle ensued.

In other attacks, eight mortars were fired at a US base in Iraq, US
officials said, and the Arabic satellite channel al-Jazeera reported that
Japanese forces faced their first attack, when a mortar was fired at their
base near the southern town of al-Samawah without causing casualties. (The
BBC also reported that a truck bomb exploded after penetrating the perimeter
fence of Baghdad's international airport, where thousands of American troops
are based.)

The attacks followed the killing of two US soldiers in a roadside bomb
attack in Baghdad and a pair of car-bombings on Tuesday and Wednesday which
killed 100 Iraqis, most of whom had been volunteering for the Iraqi security
forces.

The report makes clear how dependent Iraq's stability is on investment in
the country's economy. "A fear of some is the 'Balkanisation' of Iraq if
security, economic and infrastructure situations do not improve," it says.

It attributed much of the civilian violence to rising ethnic tensions
between Kurds, Shias and Sunnis, noting that several bodies were found in
the south "with hands bound and bullet wounds to the head".

But attacks on military targets, which had seen two months of decline, rose
even faster than those on civilians, it said, particularly in the "Sunni
triangle", north and west of Baghdad. It described the "profuse
availability" of roadside bombs, the favoured weapon of the insurgents, as
"alarming", saying attacks had surged almost 200 per cent.

The report shed little insight into who was behind the attacks, but said
"multiple reports confirm the presence of al-Qaeda in the country".