[A-List] Oil depletion, oil policies and growing nationalism in Argentina

["Nestor Gorojovsky" <nestorgoro@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The all-but-declared financial war against Argentina and Kirchner's 
permanent insistence in that this must become a national cause is 
beginning to stir an already active wave of popular nationalism in 
Argentina.  What follows is a demonstration of what are the feelings 
that begin to generalize here.

Most of what follows is in English, so that no translation needed. 
But the intro in Spanish by Mr. Rolando Quirós, an Arg. scientist, is 
as simple as clear. He begins by accepting that oil is depleting. 
Thus, he says that "it is high time that our govm't tells foreign oil 
companies (all of them) to pack and leave. The little oil we have at 
home must be kept for us, our children and grand children." And ends 
by stating that it is sources from the oil industry itself which 
recommend this course of action.

------- Forwarded message follows -------
From:           	"Rolando Quiros" <quiros@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To:             	<pol-cien@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date sent:      	Wed, 11 Feb 2004 14:24:16 -0300
Organization:   	Facultad de Agronomia, UBA
Subject:        	[Pol-cien] vamos, hay que irse

Estimados,

Es momento que nuestro gobierno le empiece a decir a las petroleras 
extranjeras (todas) que hay que empezar a levantar campamento y 
volver a casa. Lo poco que nos queda debemos guardarlo para nuestros 
hijos y nietos. Si, segun la misma industria, asi de grave es la cosa 
(con SCI o sin SCI).
Saludos,
Rolando Quiros
PD: les recomiendo la cita de Eric Hoffer al pie
----------------------------------------------
De energyresources@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Enjoy, Ron Patterson

http://www.ems.org/rls/2004/01/28/oil_supply_short.html

Oil Supply Shortages Likely After 2007, New Report Shows

Global oil supplies could start to have difficulty meeting
growing demand after 2007, according to a recent analysis of
existing and planned major oil-recovery projects published this
month in Petroleum Review.

While a flood of new production is set to hit the market over
the next three years, the volumes expected from anticipated new
projects thereafter are likely to fall well below requirements,
the report says.

"There are not enough large-scale projects in the development
pipeline right now to offset declining production in mature
areas and meet global demand growth beyond 2007," said Chris
Skrebowski, author of the report, editor of Petroleum Review and
a recently appointed Board member of the Oil Depletion Analysis
Centre (ODAC) in London.

"Since it takes, on average, six years from first discovery for
a mega project to start producing oil, any new project approved
today would be unlikely to come on stream until the end of the
decade," Mr Skrebowski noted.

The report, 'Oil field mega projects 2004', analysed all known
projects with estimated reserves of over 500 million barrels and
the claimed potential to produce over 100,000 barrels of oil a
day. Projects on that scale account for about 80 percent of the
world's oil supplies.

The report found that just three such projects are expected to
come on stream in 2007 and three more in 2008. No new projects
could be identified for start-up in subsequent years.

"Ever-growing demand for oil means there is a ready market for
additional supplies so substantial new discoveries tend to go
into development in a very limited time," Mr Skrebowski noted.
"But between a quarter and a third of the world's oil production
is already in decline and it appears that giant new discoveries
to replace lost capacity are becoming very scarce."

The rate of major new oil field discoveries has fallen
dramatically in recent years. There were 13 discoveries of over
500 million barrels in 2000, six in 2001 and just two in 2002,
according to the industry analysts IHS Energy. For 2003, not a
single new discovery over 500 million barrels has so far been
reported. [The falling discovery trend is confirmed by another
recent report by energy consultant Wood Mackenzie, according to
a January 23, 2004 article in The Wall Street Journal.]

Key findings of the Petroleum Review report are:

- Between 2003 and early 2007 some 8 million barrels of new
capacity is expected to come on stream. This should be more than
sufficient to offset global production declines of about 3-4
million barrels a day over that period and projected demand
growth of around 3 million barrels a day.

- The peak year for new mega projects, predominantly offshore
developments, will be 2005 when 18 projects with a potential
peak capacity of 3 million barrels a day are due to come on
stream.

- The development pace will slow in 2006 with 11 new projects
starting up. Their combined peak capacity will be around 2
million barrels a day.

- Only three new mega projects are expected to come on stream in
2007 and a further three in 2008, adding less than 2 million
barrels of potential new capacity at their peak.

- From 2007, the volumes of new production will likely fall
short of the combined need to replace lost capacity from
depleting older fields and satisfy continued growth in world
demand.

- Some 23 other projects have been identified that could
potentially be developed sometime in the future. All but two of
these are in Russia and the Middle East but due to a range of
political, legal and technical uncertainties, none is likely to
add new supplies to the market before the end of this decade.

The report includes details of 54 approved projects, with their
estimated reserves, expected start-up dates and projected peak
flows, as reported by the oil companies. A number of the
projected peak flows appear high 
relative to the reported reserve base, which suggests that these
peaks may be relatively short-lived, Mr Skrebowski noted.

Almost all of the projects listed are in offshore fields. Since
the infrastructure and operating costs of offshore projects are
much higher than onshore projects, they are usually developed so
that peak flows are achieved quickly - within about a year of
start-up - and maintained for as long as possible. Offshore
fields deplete more rapidly as a result.

The International Energy Agency forecasts annual average growth
in oil demand over the medium term of around one and a half
percent. That alone would require increases in production on the
order of one to one and a half million barrels a day each year.
In 2002, total worldwide oil production was about 74 million
barrels a day, but over 21 million barrels a day came from
countries where production is already in decline.

"The results of this analysis suggest that with a shrinking pool
of major new oil-recovery projects available, the world may be
entering an era of permanently declining oil supplies in the
coming decade," Mr Skrebowski said.

"A number of other analysts have forecast a global peak in oil
production within roughly the same timeframe based on analyses
of past production and estimates of reserves. This study takes a
different approach but points to a similar conclusion."

# # #


For more information contact: 
Jim Meyer
Tel: +44 (0)20 7424 0049
E-mail: odac@xxxxxxxxxxxxx


Note to editors:

1. The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is a UK-registered
educational charity working to raise international public
awareness and promote better understanding of the world's
oil-depletion problem. Further information is available on its
website: www.odac-info.org 

2. Chris Skrebowski is editor of Petroleum Review, a monthly
magazine published by the Energy Institute in London, and one of
seven trustees of The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC). He
previously edited Petroleum Economist and was an oil market
analyst for the Saudis in London for eight years. He started his
career in the oil industry as a long-term planner for BP, then
joined Petroleum Times as a journalist and edited Offshore
Services magazine in the late 1970s.

3. 'Oil field mega projects 2004' was published in the January
2004 edition of Petroleum Review and can be downloaded in PDF
from the ODAC website's Bulletin Board. 

=====
- It is the true believer's ability to "shut his eyes and stop his ears"
to the facts that do not deserve to be either seen or heard which 
is the source of his unequaled fortitude and constancy. He cannot 
be frightened by danger nor disheartened by obstacle nor baffled 
by contradictions because he denies their existence.
     Eric Hoffer:  The True Believer.



------- End of forwarded message -------

Néstor Miguel Gorojovsky
nestorgoro@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

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"Sí, una sola debe ser la patria de los sudamericanos".
Simón Bolívar al gobierno secesionista y disgregador de 
Buenos Aires, 1822
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