[A-List] EU/China relations: warming

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

This is the sort of elementary course in geopolitics that the Stratfor
people should undertake before they deign to inform the rest of us about
France's lowly diplomatic position. While couched in the same, limiting
beltway perspective, this article achieves everything that Stratfor did
not -- recognition of the realities of French geopolitical strategy, and
some of its potential consequences.

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France, Germany seek to resume China arms sales
By Adam Wolfe
Asia Times, February 12 2004

The 14-year-old European Union embargo prohibiting arms sales to China may
be about to fall, but that doesn't mean sales will resume or that China will
get French Mirage jet fighters to match those sold to Taiwan.

The embargo was imposed by the EU and the United States after the June 1989
Tiananmen Square massacre of peaceful, pro-democracy demonstrators. Now
France and Germany are leading the charge to lift the ban, calling the
sanctions outdated and saying their ailing economies need the business.

On January 27, French President Jacques Chirac held a joint conference with
Chinese President Hu Jintao to celebrate the "Year of China" in Paris.
Chirac used the occasion to publicly call for the lifting of the EU arms
embargo on China. So far France and Germany have succeeded in pushing the EU
to review the embargo and have urged the organization to take action before
the March inauguration of 10 new members.

It appears that their push may prove successful. Javier Solana, the EU
foreign policy chief, was quoted on February 4 in the Geneva newspaper Le
Temps as saying, "It seems to me, after discussions we had a few days ago
... [that] the EU is ready to do it."

But even then, an EU arms transfer code of conduct would still prevent
immediate sales.

While the United States is opposed to lifting the bans, it is a 1998 EU law
that may ultimately render any change to the embargo insignificant; the EU
arms business remains tightly controlled by a 1998 code of conduct barring
the sale of equipment that could be used in regional conflicts or domestic
repression - and these proscriptions would still be enforceable on sales to
China.

Arms embargoes imposed for human rights abuses
After the military repression of pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen
Square, the US and the member states of the EU imposed embargoes on sales of
arms to China. US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher defended this
decision saying, "We believe that the US and European prohibitions on arms
sales are complementary, were imposed for the same reasons, specifically
serious human-rights abuses, and that those reasons remain valid today."

Despite Boucher's statement, the French have begun to see the issue
differently. Dominique de Villepin, the French foreign minister, recently
argued, "Our feeling is that the embargo is out of date as relations between
Europe and China improve ... [Beijing is] a privileged partner and a
responsible one."

France and Germany are pushing for an end to the embargo largely for
economic reasons. The EU is China's third largest trade partner and,
according to an October strategy paper, China expects the EU to become its
largest source of foreign investment within five years. China's military
spending has been growing by an annual rate of 17 percent even though the
state has not recently been involved in any major conflicts.

Germany's and France's economies have suffered since the late 1990s and may
be subject to EU action for government deficit spending above the maximum
levels allowed as members in the union. The expansion of the EU from 15
states to 25 in March will weaken the French and German negotiating
positions within the trading bloc. Both countries are hoping that investment
in China will help to pull their economies out of stagnation and near flat
growth rates. China has used this situation to make ending the embargo its
top priority with the EU.

The US objects to dropping the arms embargo because, Washington argues, it
would threaten to upset the balance of power in the region and because China
has not advanced sufficiently on the human rights issues that triggered the
embargoes.

Arms sales to China could threaten Taiwan
The lifting of the sanctions would certainly exacerbate the tensions
surrounding the March 20 presidential elections in Taiwan. China has always
said it will use military force, if necessary, to reunify the island.
Currently, Taiwan has been protected by US guarantees of security, US arms
purchases and the island's technological and military edge over the
mainland. Should weapons sales resume between the EU and China, including
Mirage jet fighters from France and missiles from Germany, this
technological superiority could diminish without the US authorizing new and
advanced weapons for sale to the island. The possibility of this situation
is beginning to stoke the nationalistic streak in Taiwan that even the US
has not been able to support.

The economic and geopolitical rise of China also threatens the ability of
the US to act as a unique balancing power in the region. As China emerges as
a great power and Japan's slack economy continues to marginalize Tokyo's
regional influence, the Asian and North Asian power structures that the US
has relied on are being overturned. Although the bilateral security alliance
and access to Japanese naval bases will remain important to the US for the
foreseeable future, Washington has been trying to maintain its influence in
the region through other state players.

Although some individuals in Washington have begun to see China as a
security collaborator, rather than a "strategic competitor" - the term now
in vogue - the US is not prepared to strengthen the Chinese government's
military power, partly out of concern for other regional allies such as
Taiwan and South Korea.

France and Germany are not as hesitant as the US to disrupt the balance of
power in the region because the European powers have not maintained strong
ties with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.

The US also objects to lifting the embargo because the ban was put in place
initially because of human rights abuses, and Washington argues that the
prohibitions should not be lifted simply in reaction to the liberalization
of the Chinese economy. China continues to occupy Tibet, suppress dissent
and free speech and control the media, however, EU members say China has
made progress on these fronts and should not be lumped into the same
category as North Korea, Myanmar, Liberia and Sudan.

Code of conduct on arms exports would remain
Even if the EU does lift the embargo, which looks increasingly likely, it
appears that any weapons sales to China would still be illegal under the
1998 code of conduct on arms exports. Since China continues to target nearly
500 missiles at Taiwan, there is little chance that any long-range missile
technology could be sold to Beijing, even short-range technology to cover
the Taiwan Strait. Some in the EU who favor easing or lifting the embargo
say that the code of conduct would prevent the sale of any technology that
could be used to threaten another state. Still, lifting the embargo would be
a step in the direction of eventual arms sales, as conditions permit.

The motivations for France and Germany are strongly tied to their countries'
economic weaknesses. But their efforts to cancel the embargo may also be one
route toward creation of a multi-polar world to counter balance the power of
the US. Their desire to redress what they see as a geo-strategic imbalance
may explain why they want the EU to vote on lifting the embargo before the
March inauguration of 10 new members, many of which have close ties to
Washington.

If the EU pursues the path of boosting China to a position to challenge the
power in the region that the US currently controls, the effects of this
realignment could spread around the world. Any move by the EU to arm China
will have to account for the reaction that this power shift could unleash.