[A-List] France: Latin America (Support for Argentina)

["Anyutka" <annewilliamson@xxxxxxx>]

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STRATFOR'S GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
http://www.stratfor.com
06 February 2004

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France: Seeking Influence in Latin America

Summary

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin visited Latin
America as Paris is intensifying efforts to craft a new foreign
policy to reverse its waning influence in global and European
affairs. In practice, the new bilateral relations Paris is
seeking with key countries in Latin America likely won't have any
major impact on geopolitical developments there.

Analysis

Over the past year, France has seen its influence significantly
diminish in the arena of global affairs and within the European
Union. This has greatly upset France, which likes to think of
itself as a leading voice in the world; after all, it has a
permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council and, with Germany, is
a co-founder of the European Union.

Lately, France's perception of its place in the world has taken a
beating. First the Iraq war, which Paris opposed bitterly in a
joint alliance with Berlin, demonstrated that French foreign
policy did not match the European Union's foreign policy. France
and Germany tried to make their anti-war position the common EU
foreign policy, but seven countries voted instead to back the
United States. In the end, French President Jacques Chirac and
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder wound up looking to all the
world like a pair of curmudgeons who the Bush administration and
many of their EU peers simply ignored.

More recently, Paris has realized that the inclusion in May 2004
of 10 new EU members -- several of which also supported the Bush
administration on the Iraq war and the fight against global
terrorism -- will weaken French influence within the union even
more. The incoming members have made it clear to Paris and Berlin
that they will not let the Franco-German alliance dominate them
on foreign policy or anything else.

Confronted with the reality of its diminishing power, France had
two options: accept its new second-tier status in a world
dominated by U.S. economic and military might, or chart a new
course to ensure Paris continues to be a force in global affairs
-- at least in the eyes of the French, if not in fact.

In recent months, Paris has intensified a far-reaching diplomatic
offensive designed to make France a key force in a multipolar
alliance of developing powers like China, Russia, India and South
Africa. This week it was Latin America's turn. French Foreign
Minister Dominique de Villepin made a five-day trip to Chile,
Argentina, Brazil and Mexico from Feb. 2 through 6 to lay the
foundations of a new alliance between Paris and the four
countries in Latin America that France perceives as having any
real importance to its interests.

>From the Bush administration's perspective, the only ramification
of French efforts to strengthen relations with these countries is
that the new allies likely will try to speak with a more
coordinated voice on Latin American foreign policy issues. This
means that Paris might take positions on specific issues like
Colombia, trade or Cuba that would run counter to U.S. interests.
However, Washington won't pay much attention -- just as it
doesn't pay much attention to Brazil, Argentina and Mexico on
these matters.

The official theme of de Villepin's visit was "Latin America and
the new international order." He did not meet with Mexican
President Vicente Fox, but he met with the presidents of
Argentina, Brazil and Chile -- underscoring the importance these
three South American countries assign to closer relations with
Paris.

France clearly views Brazil as the Latin American pillar of the
new alliance that would support multilateralism against U.S.
unilateralism. European diplomatic sources in Buenos Aires told
Stratfor on Feb. 5 that the Chirac government views Brazilian
President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva as the most credible and
geopolitically relevant head of state in Latin America today.
Argentina and Chile are perceived as being pulled along in
Brazil's wake. Mexico is viewed as important because of its
membership in the North American Free Trade Agreement and the
free trade agreement it already has with the European Union.

Although de Villepin's trip didn't produce any major political
announcements or economic agreements, France's new foreign policy
foundations in Latin America were laid. They include securing
Latin American support for a major overhaul of the United
Nations, most particularly the U.N. Security Council. Paris might
not be happy about the prospect that new EU members will create a
more vigorously, pugnaciously democratic union, but it does want
an expanded and more democratic U.N. Security Council to prevent
the United States from unilaterally imposing its will.

De Villepin also obtained an endorsement from all four
governments of the French position that power in Iraq should be
transferred to U.N. authority as quickly as possible. He argued
that this is a necessary step toward bringing democracy to Iraq
more quickly and restoring the U.N.'s credibility and authority
in a multilateral world. Of course, that power transfer also
would help French companies gain faster, broader access to
international reconstruction contracts, and would help Paris
press its claims over its existing prewar contracts with the
Hussein regime in oil and other sectors of Iraq's economy.

At each stop, De Villepin pledged his support on matters
specifically important to these countries. For example, in Chile
he said the territorial conflict with Bolivia is strictly a
bilateral matter, but added that borders between nations are
"intangible." Many Chileans interpreted this statement as
supporting their position against Bolivia, though in fact the
Bolivians also could see it as endorsing their position against
Chile.

In Argentina, he pledged French approval of the March 2004 review
of Argentina's agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
Senior fund officials warned recently that Buenos Aires could
face trouble with the IMF if it doesn't tangibly progress on
restructuring between $88 billion and $100 billion in defaulted
debt. However, the pledge suggests that Paris is willing to
continue approving IMF loans to Buenos Aires even if the debt
talks remain stalled, as Stratfor thinks they likely will.

In Brazil, de Villepin stroked da Silva's ego when exalting
Brazil's role in the new multipolar international order -- and in
Mexico, he pledged that France will help make the May 28-29 Latin
American-EU summit in Guadalajara a success. In short, de
Villepin didn't bind France to any entangling commitments. For
example, he didn't offer to relax French opposition to
liberalizing agriculture in any future trade deal between the EU
and the Mercosur customs union.

Ultimately, the new relations Paris is pursuing in South America
likely won't translate into a surge in French investments and aid
there. Nor will France change its position on some policy
positions, such as in agriculture, that are dear to South
American hearts. However, the presidents de Villepin met with
were happy to host him. At a time when the Bush administration
isn't paying much attention to the region, de Villepin's tour
probably felt like balm on a sunburn.
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