Re: [A-List] Detroit Auto

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Published September  23, 2003
http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/jobs23_20030923.htm

UAW to face loss of 50,000 positions 

BY JAMIE BUTTERS
FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER





The UAW likely will lose 50,000 jobs at Detroit's three automakers and two 
largest suppliers in the next four years, as the companies close and sell plants 
and replace only a fraction of the tens of thousands of members expected to 
retire, analysts said Monday.


Under the tentative agreements that the UAW announced last week with General 
Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group, Delphi 
Corp. and Visteon Corp., as many as 20 plants or offices could be closed or sold 
under exemptions to the union's standard contract language.


But it isn't those facilities or the more than 17,000 UAW members who work 
there that will drive the continued decline of the nation's leading industrial 
union. Many of those people will find other work elsewhere within the 
companies, so the net loss of jobs directly linked to plant closings or sales will not 
be nearly that high.


The real culprit is attrition -- the elimination of jobs when workers retire 
or resign and are not replaced. The companies are allowed by the contract to 
eliminate a certain percentage of jobs through attrition.


Nearly half of the union's 307,000 members at those five companies are 
eligible to retire within five years.


Gary Lapidus, who studies the industry for investors at Goldman Sachs, 
predicts almost 50,000 UAW jobs to be eliminated at the five companies. If that many 
people leave and are not replaced, that would eliminate nearly one in six UAW 
positions at the five manufacturers.


"The UAW gave ground on job security for the union while maintaining job 
security for individuals, agreeing to plant closures and declining Big Three 
membership, albeit only through attrition and early retirement programs," said 
Lapidus.


As many as 20 plants and offices could be closed, sold or razed by GM, Ford, 
Chrysler and Delphi, according to highlights of the tentative agreements 
published by the union. The union also reached a tentative pact with Visteon Corp., 
which did not disclose plans to close any plants.


Many of the more than 17,000 UAW members at those facilities will retire, and 
many more will transfer to other plants. The rest will be put into so-called 
jobs banks, where they are paid to do other things -- such as charitable work 
or study -- until work is needed at another facility.


Once attrition is factored in, the total number of job losses likely would be 
comparable to the losses during the last 4-year contract, as automakers 
continue to replace only a fraction of workers who retire.


Sean McAlinden, the labor economist with the Center for Automotive Research 
in Ann Arbor, also said he expects retirement and the relative lack of new 
hires to continue unabated. After shedding about 53,000 jobs over the last four 
years, the automakers will lose another 49,000 by 2007, he predicts.


By the Free Press' count, about 44,500 UAW jobs were eliminated during the 
last contract. Estimates can vary according to factors such as when members are 
counted and whether members that are on the payroll but not working, such as 
those in jobs banks, are included.


But the trend is clear. UAW membership already has fallen from peaks of more 
than 1.5 million in the late 1960s and late '70s to fewer than 675,898 by the 
end of last year.


Even with the addition of members in parts plants owned by other companies, 
it will be hard for the union to stop the decline, said McAlinden.


The rate of decline could even increase if the economy improves. More workers 
are likely to opt for early retirement, which they qualify for after 30 years 
on the job. In a down economy, workers tend to hold on to the good jobs they 
have. But in better times, they are more confident that their investments will 
grow or that they can pursue a second career.



Copyright © 2003 Detroit Free Press Inc.