[A-List] Argentina: forwarded from Néstor

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

This is just a quick visit before I disappear again, but way back on 4 July
Néstor forwarded me this to forward to you, which, belatedly, I now do.
Hopefully the depressing fortnight did not extend itself any further.

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Hi, Mike, maybe you can repost in those long and sunny Finnish midnights!
Here in Buenos Aires we´re having a depressing fortnight of cloudy, wet,
dark and cold days reminding anyone that Argentina is not as tropical as
"South America" is demed to be. Winter has set in as deeply as to shake
one´s confidence in global warming...

Zaffaroni is known as a "liberal progressive" here, which would amount, more
or less, to what is considered a "liberal" by American standards. National
liberation is completely absent from his mind, but he may become a very
important piece if Kirchner, in the end, decides to strike against
imperialists. Because he is as honest and serious a lawyer as one can ask
for, and thus he may well become the one who enforces national law against
imperialist lawlesness. His access to the Court, on the other hand, will
further wipe the air clean of the worst symbols of imperialism, many of who
(e.g. Moliné O´Connor, a shame for the Irish people) will quit the Court
soon. Worms cannot stand exposure to strong sunlight for a long time.

For the time being, the government has chosen to strike a short-term deal
with the IMF, which does not sound unreasonable.  The recent moves by Lula
in Brazil have emboldened the IMF, who (a) press on the Argentinean
government arguing that "the Brazilians strike an agreement, and you don´t,
who do you think you are?", and (b) hope that the Brazilian recession will
force Argentina to kneel down when our recently increased exports begin to
turn down.

However, the Argentinean economic team seems to think (and I agree with this
idea) that the Brazilian turn to the right will not be sustainable, so that
it is best to strike a short term deal with IMF while we wait for Brazil to
crumble down under the current IMF-tailored program. Once this happens, the
IMF will hardly be able to speak seriously of "structural adjustment" any
more, or at least for a long time.

Kirchner hasn´t decided whether he will head a national revolution or not.
And this is clear when one looks at the wage rate. People will not take the
streets in support of the government under such flimsy slogans as "Clean
hands in the Supreme Court!", not even "Income redistribution now!"  This
is, of course, as ridiculous as it sounds.  People will take the streets for
a drastic change in the relations of economic power, something like "Defend
the rise in wages now!"

And this, if Kirchner wants to do it, is the basic program for a national
government (as oppossed to an anti-national government) here. On the other
hands, some of my preventions against K. begin to fade away a little. I had
always considered him a man of the oil companies, particularly of Repsol,
the Anglo-Spanish imperialist concern that stole our own national company
under Menem.  But he is currently supporting the entrance of the Brazilian
company Petrobrás, and now -a still bolder move, provided Tony Blair will
host Kirchner and Menem these days in order to separate them from Chávez and
Fidel-  the Venezuelan PDVSA. This, combined with his intention to boost
Mercosur and to have Venezuela join the area ASAP, may prove an imaginative
way to kick the imperialist concerns in their asses.

Motorists here, who are already choosing the Petrobras fuel stations instead
of imperialist owned ones, are eagerly waiting for PDVSA fuel stations to
appear, and they will prove a very strong competence for Repsol owned YPF,
Esso and Shell.