[A-List] Deutsche Bank - Falling Dollar

["Gary Santos" <evs@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Got this from Nick Laird. Runs parallel to the technical analysis done by
Sinclair. Meanwhile, the 30 year bond is at support but any breakout will likely
be to the downside (attached also).


 Fri Jul 25, 2003
TECHNICAL HEADS UP
    Author: Jim Sinclair/Kenny Adams
 http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
  Dear Gold Community members,

Here is in my and Kenny Adams' opinion, the skinny. Hang on to your hats gang.
We are on the threshold of a Damn Big up move in both gold and silver.The
general equities are not the hot hand any longer! Therefore, IMO, even on your
worst precious metal dog or con-racket junior, shut down on the selling. You
will, I believe, get better prices.

Here's what Kenny has to say in his unique uppercase style:

GOLD AND SILVER ARE BOTH MAKING PATTERNS THAT ARE NORMALLY THE PREPATORY
PATTERNS FOR MASSIVE RUNS UP, WHEN IN A RISING BULL AND LEAVING A FLAT CHOP -
(OR DOWN), WHEN IN A BEAR AND LEAVING AN EXTENDED FLAT CHOP. IN THIS CASE, WE
ARE IN THE BULL.

WHAT IT MEANS TECHNICALLY:

TECHNICAL PATTERNS CAN BE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY MOVE UP AT NEAR 90 DEGREE
ANGLES AND THEN HAVE NARROW, SIDEWAYS AND ESPECIALLY (INSIDE DAY CORRECTIONS),
LASTING 3 TO 5 DAYS ONLY, AND THEN FOLLOWED BY FURTHER SPIKES UP - OVER AND OVER
AGAIN, UNTIL REACHING MAJOR UPSIDE PROJECTIONS.

SUCH PATTERNS CREATE A MAJOR, PSYCHOLOGICAL PRESSURE TO TAKE PROFITS AT EACH
CORRECTIVE POINT. HOWEVER, THE CORRECTIONS SELDOM FALL EVEN TO MINIMUM
EXPECTATIONS - NOR FOR THE MINIMUM EXPECTED LENGTH OF TIME - THEREBY FORCING THE
TRADER TO HAVE TO CHASE THE (APPARENTLY PREMATURE) RESUMPTION OF THE BULL, AND
FREQUENTLY HAVING TO BUY IN ABOVE THE POINT WHERE THE LAST OFFSETS WERE TAKEN.

THE CATCH IS WHETHER UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS WILL SUSTAIN CURRENT INDICATIONS AS
THEY HAVE IN THE PAST AND WITH PRECEDENT.

IF PRECEDENT IS FOLLOWED, WE ARE ON THE EDGE OF A MASSIVE, MASSIVE, RISE IN THE
VALUE OF GOLD AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO - SILVER.

IF PRECEDENT IS NOT FOLLOWED, ITS POTENTIAL PATH WILL BE TWOFOLD: EITHER IT WILL
BE TERMINATED BY INTERVENTION BY WAY OF DECREE, AND THE IMPOSITION OF GOVERNMENT
INTO MARKETS, AS WAS THE CASE WITH SILVER 20 YEARS AGO - AND SOME 48 YEARS EVEN
BEFORE THAT, (WITH ROOSEVELT'S CONFISCATION OF GOLD) - OR IT WILL EXPERIENCE A
MOVE EVEN GREATER THAN PRECEDENT IMPLIES. IT WILL NOT LIKELY TRADE ONLY TO A
MATCH OF THE LATE 60'S, AND AGAIN IN THE 70'S, AND 80'S.

IF THIS BULL PHASE IS TO BE GREATER THAN PRECEDENT, THEN IN ITS UNFOLDMENT, ONE
SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF THE FACT THAT: HAD ANY GOVERNMENT EVER EXISTENT BEEN
THOUGHT OF AS TRUSTWORTHY, THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN NO NEED FOR A CONSTITUTION AND
A BILL OF RIGHTS - AND ITS SPECIFIC DEFINITION OF THE PROPER DISTANCE BETWEEN
THE STATE AND THE INDIVIDUAL. ONE NEED LOOK NO FURTHER THAN TO ANY GOVERNMENT'S
ISSUANCE OF FIAT (PURE PAPER MONEY BACKED BY PROMISES THAT ARE INDISTINCT)
MONEY, IN ORDER TO DETERMINE THE EXACT DEGREE OF RESPECT THAT GOVERNMENT HAS FOR
ITS CITIZENRY.

IF THIS IS THE EDGE OF, AND THE BEGINNING OF A MASSIVE RISE IN PRECIOUS METALS,
THEN THIS IS (POSSIBLY) THE EDGE OF, AND THE BEGINNING OF A MASSIVE DROP IN THE
VALUE OF THE EQUITY MARKETS (RELATIVE TO PURCHASING POWER) - IF NOT IN THEIR
FACE VALUE, AS WELL. (THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY INDICATE A DOLLAR FALLING FASTER THAN
THE FACE VALUE OF THE EQUITY MARKETS.)

EQUITIES:

THE EQUITY INDEXES HAVE STILL (NOT) YET GIVEN A SIGNAL TO VERIFY A CHANGE IN
TREND TO AN INTERMEDIATE BEAR, AND WE ARE IN THE (8TH) WEEK OF THE (EXHAUSTION)
SIGNAL - (WHICH SETS A NEW RECORD FOR EACH WEEK BEYOND 6 WEEKS OF AN EXHAUSTION
SIGNAL, WITHOUT A VERIFICATION OF TREND REVERSAL). HOWEVER - THERE HAS NOT BEEN
SUBSTANTIAL PRICE APPRECIATION SINCE THE (EXHAUSTION) SIGNAL, WHICH CONTINUES TO
SERVE ITS INTENDED TASK VERY WELL, BEING: (NO ADVANTAGE TO THE LONG SIDE).

HOWEVER - THE (VNT - very near term) CURRENT INTERNALS IN THE EQUITY FUTURES
STRONGLY INDICATE THAT THE MINOR RALLY TO YESTERDAY'S HIGH (TAIL UP/CLOSE DOWN),
WILL BE THE FINAL RALLY, PRIOR TO A ROLL INTO FURTHER CORRECTIVE ACTION.

IF THIS IS A FINAL RALLY, I WOULD EXPECT THE VERIFICATION SIGNAL OF TREND CHANGE
TO OCCUR SHORTLY.

Attachment: US_Dollar_Fall.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

Attachment: 30 year bonds.jpg
Description: JPEG image