Re: [A-List] Iraq:the fog of war

["Christopher Black" <bar@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Bob

And the heat is rising to 40 degrees in a couple of days or so. The
coalition forces are going to need to haul a lot of  fresh water to the
battlefield. A few hours delay and these guys are prostrate from heat
exhaustion. And the Russians are making noises by floating trial ballons
like seizing Um Qasr with their marines. It looks like Rumsfeld and friends
gambled on a big push hoping to crush the Iraqis with airpower again. But 5
Corps is toot weak to pull it off. They have to wait for the rest and then
go in. Nasty

Chris
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bob Enoch" <bobenoch@xxxxxxx>
To: <a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, April 04, 2003 11:45 PM
Subject: [A-List] Iraq:the fog of war


> The purpose of a military plan is to deliver an overwhelming blow at a
> decisive point.
> Entering the third week of this invasion,how does this operation measure
up?
> It is difficult to interpret the arrival at Baghdad of a scratched, and
> tired 5th Corps as credibly threatening a decisive stroke now.
> Unless resistance collapses,  the experience of this campaign proves that
5
> Corps can not enter Baghdad safely.
> Is there any reason to expect a collapse of Iraqi resistance?
> On the contrary, the low numbers of POWs , the absence of any "images" of
> destroyed tanks and artillery, the
> "where is the Guard" stories are a clear enough indication that if a
"plan"
> has been successfully carried out here
> it is more likely to be the Iraqi, than the Coalition plan.
>
> Iraq has concentrated its' best forces on their chosen battlefield, and
> there are now very substantial un-fought forces in the rear of the
> Coalition.
> There is very great strain on the supply lines, resistance continues in
> every city and town along these routes.
>
> The invader was permitted to approach Baghdad, clearly facilitated in
doing
> so, as the Iraqi expression "cutting off the head of the snake" shows
> plainly.
>
> We have now arrived at the point  which the Iraqi leadership intended, and
> told us they intended at the outset of this offensive.
> Baghdad is not about to "fall".
>
> What is the mission of 5th Corps?
> What can they do that would "win" this war quickly?
> I think the answer is, with conventional weapons , nothing.
> Plan A , based on a political mis-calculation of historic proportions, has
> already failed. Does Rumsfeld understand this? Or will he throw good money
> after bad, and try a heavy attack on the City.
> "Those villains" face real difficulties in the coming period. And it is
> still sandstorm season.
>
> Bob
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