[A-List] Iraq:the fog of war

[Bob Enoch <bobenoch@xxxxxxx>]

The purpose of a military plan is to deliver an overwhelming blow at a
decisive point.
Entering the third week of this invasion,how does this operation measure up?
It is difficult to interpret the arrival at Baghdad of a scratched, and
tired 5th Corps as credibly threatening a decisive stroke now.
Unless resistance collapses,  the experience of this campaign proves that 5
Corps can not enter Baghdad safely.
Is there any reason to expect a collapse of Iraqi resistance?
On the contrary, the low numbers of POWs , the absence of any "images" of
destroyed tanks and artillery, the
"where is the Guard" stories are a clear enough indication that if a "plan"
has been successfully carried out here
it is more likely to be the Iraqi, than the Coalition plan.

Iraq has concentrated its' best forces on their chosen battlefield, and
there are now very substantial un-fought forces in the rear of the
Coalition.
There is very great strain on the supply lines, resistance continues in
every city and town along these routes.

The invader was permitted to approach Baghdad, clearly facilitated in doing
so, as the Iraqi expression "cutting off the head of the snake" shows
plainly.

We have now arrived at the point  which the Iraqi leadership intended, and
told us they intended at the outset of this offensive.
Baghdad is not about to "fall".

What is the mission of 5th Corps?
What can they do that would "win" this war quickly?
I think the answer is, with conventional weapons , nothing.
Plan A , based on a political mis-calculation of historic proportions, has
already failed. Does Rumsfeld understand this? Or will he throw good money
after bad, and try a heavy attack on the City.
"Those villains" face real difficulties in the coming period. And it is
still sandstorm season.

Bob