[A-List] Re: A Russian view of the war (April 3)

[Jim Farmelant <farmelantj@xxxxxxxx>]

  The English translation, that appears below comes from
   http://www2.iraqwar.ru/index.php?userlang=en

        Jim F.
 ------------------------------------------

During the last and today early morning the coalition
continued its advance toward Baghdad that it had begun
three days ago. Units of the 3rd mechanized Infantry Division,
failing to quickly capture the town of Al-Khindiya, blockaded
it with a part of their forces and moved around the town from
the east to reach Al-Iskanderiya by the morning. It is not clear
right now whether the US troops were able to take the town of
Al-Musaib or if they went around it as well. The overall [coalition]
progress in this direction was about 25 kilometers during
the past 24 hours.

This thrust came as a surprise to the Iraqi command. The Iraqi
defense headquarters around Karabela remained deep behind the
forward lines of the advancing US brigades. Due to the intensive
aerial and artillery strikes the Iraqi headquarters [in Karabela]
lost most of its communication facilities and has partially lost
control of the troops. As the result the Iraqi defense units in
the line of the coalition attack became disorganized and were
unable to offer effective resistance. During the night fighting
the Iraqi forces in this area were pushed from their defensive
positions and withdrew toward Baghdad. The Iraqi losses were up
to 100 killed and up to 300 captured. The US troops destroyed
or captured up to 70 Iraqi tanks and APCs.

Currently the Iraqi command is rushing to create a new line of
defense 20-30 kilometers south of Baghdad. The US losses in this
attack were 3 armored vehicles, up to 8 killed and wounded.

Late night on April 2 east of Karabela a unit from the 3rd Mechanized
Infantry Division went off-course and ran into an artillery ambush
after moving too close to the Iraqi positions. In the resulting
firefight the US forces have lost no less than 8 armored vehicles
and, according to the Iraqi reports, at least 25 US troops
were killed or wounded.

In the town of Al-Kut US Marine units were able to capture a bridge
across the Tigris; but they were unable to capture the entire town
and currently fighting is continuing in the residential districts.
No fewer than 3 US soldiers were killed and up to 12 were wounded in
this area during the past 24 hours. The US troops are reporting 50
killed and 120 captured Iraqi soldiers.

The coalition was able to make serious progress to the south of
Al-Kut. After quickly taking the town of An-nu-Manyah the US forces
have set up a bridge across the Tigris and immediately proceeded
to transfer the Marine units to the left bank. There is a highway
going from An-nu-Manyah to Baghdad along the left bank of the Tigris.
No more large populated areas are located along the highway and
the attacking forces may be able to come within 15-20 kilometers
of Baghdad as early as tonight.

The blockade of An-Najaf is continuing. Numerous attempts by the
[coalition] troops to reach the center of the town have failed
after being met by Iraqi fire. At least fire [coalition] soldiers
have been wounded and one is missing.

The situation around An-Divania remains unclear. Heavy fighting
in this area is continuing since yesterday. The US field commanders
have requested artillery and aviation support on several occasions
and have reported "strong counterattacks by the enemy." It has
been determined that by the evening of April 2 the command of
the US 101st Airborne Division ordered its troops to withdraw
from the town in order to create some space between its forces and
the Iraqis to allow for artillery and aerial strikes. The overall
US losses in this area during the past two days are up to 15 killed
and around 35 wounded. At the same time the US commanders are
reporting "hundreds of killed Iraqis; about 50 Iraqis - some of
them wearing civilian clothes - have been captured by the coalition.
There has been a report of another [coalition] helicopter loss
in this area.

Resistance is also continuing in An-Nasiriya. The town's garrison
has been fighting for the past ten days and continues to hold
its positions on the left bank of the Euphrates. During the
past day there has been a reduction in the intensity of the
Iraqi resistance. However, the US commanders at the coalition
headquarters believe that this is due to the Iraqis trying
to preserve their ammunition, which is by no means unlimited.
According to one of the US officers at the coalition
headquarters elements of the [Iraqi] 11th Infantry Division
remain in control on the left bank of the Euphrates. "...Resilience
of this unquestionably brave enemy is worth respect. Four
time we offered them to lay down their arms and surrender,
but they continue resisting like fanatics..." [Reverse-translated
from Russian] During the past night 1 US soldier was
killed and 2 more were wounded in firefights in this area.

Another attempt by the British to penetrate Iraqi defenses
near Basra has failed. Up to 2 battalions of the British
16th marine infantry brigade reinforced with tanks attempted
to break through the Iraqi defenses last night northwest of
the Maakil airport along the Al-Arab River. Simultaneously
from the southwest at As-Zubair another 2 marine infantry
battalions made an attempt to enter the area of Mahallat-es-Zubair,
but were met with heavy fire and withdrew after a four-hour-long
battle. The Iraqis have reported 2 destroyed British tanks,
5 APCs and no fewer than 30 British troops killed. However,
the British commanders are reporting 4 lost armored vehicles
and 5 killed. Additionally, Iraqi air defenses have shot down
an F-18 fighter-bomber of the town. The radio surveillance units
reported the loss of another plane to the north of Baghdad.
It is not known whether this plane was shot down or crashed
after losing control due to a technical malfunction.

As we can see, the coalition command is continuing with its
"march on Baghdad" tactics. In the course of their advance
the coalition troops are moving around the primary centers
of the Iraqi defense and blockade them leaving the rest of
the work to aviation and artillery. The very near future
will show how effective this tactics really is. So far,
according to intelligence reports, more than 50,000 Iraqi
troops continue fighting behind the coalition forward lines
at Karabela alone. No fewer than 5,000 Iraqis are defending
An-Najaf and An-Divania. Experts estimate that the total
number of Iraqis fighting behind coalition front approaches
90,000-100,000 regular army troops and militia.

Under such circumstances the coalition has two options:
it can either try to quickly capture Baghdad, thus leaving
the Iraqi garrisons in the occupied territories with no
reason to continue with their resistance; or the coalition
troops can dig in around Baghdad and prepare for the final
assault while "cleaning up" the captured territory. The
latter seems more likely as the coalition can use the fresh
troops arriving now to Kuwait for these "clean up" operations.
This will also allow these troops to gain the valuable
combat experience fighting the weakened enemy before
the assault on Baghdad.

Analysts believe that this war will cause a review of the
role of precision-guided munitions (PGM) on the modern
battlefield. Already the results of using PGM in Iraq cast
doubt on the effectiveness of PGM in woodland areas and in
cross-country terrain. Under such conditions the main
objective becomes not to hit the target with the first
shot but to locate, identify and to track the target.

Reviewing ground operations [in Iraq] analysts conclude that
the desert terrain and the resulting inability of the Iraqis
to fight outside of towns and villages provide the coalition
with its main strategic advantage. Complete air dominance
allows [the coalition troops] locating and engaging Iraqi
positions and armor at maximum distance using precision-guided
munitions not available to the Iraqis, while remaining outside
of the range of the Iraqi weapons. Considering the course of
this war and the tactics used by the coalition, [Russian military]
analysts find this tactics to be far removed from the realities
of modern warfare and designed exclusively against a
technologically much weaker opponent. Such tactics is unimaginable
on the European theater of combat with its woodlands and
cross-country terrain. Foreseeing the possibility of a future
military standoff between the US and North Korea the analysts
are certain that the US cannot hope for a military victory on
the Korean Peninsula without the use of nuclear weapons.

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