[A-List] Iraq: UK military analysis

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Baghdad bound US may keep an eye on Britain's 'three-step-plan' for taking
city
BOB STEWART
The Herald, 4 April 2003
Analysis

THE US attack on Baghdad looks increasingly likely to be modelled on how the
British have dealt with Basra.

US planners in Qatar are watching the way matters develop in the British
sector of operations with interest.

The British Army and Royal Marines now encircle Basra, but as yet there are
few signs after a week there of a determined effort to take the city. This
is clearly part of an effort to avoid the bloodshed involved in fighting
through the place from house to house, and street to street.

>From a military perspective, the way events around Basra have evolved so far
suggest Major General Brims, British commander on the ground, may be
following through a carefully considered process.

Speculating, I suggest he may well have set himself the following mission:
to take Basra and thus destroy Saddam's power there, without alienating the
civilian population. The last five words of that mission statement may be
key to how he carries out that mission.

I can discern at least two of a possible three phases of the plan to take
Basra.

In phase one, British units fought and encircled the city, effectively
sealing it. This phase is complete: it took a few days of fighting to take
the al-Faw peninsula and then Umm Qasr, Rumaila, and Safwan, before British
units could get within close striking distance of Basra.

For several days now, we have seen checkpoints operating on the outskirts of
the city. The armoured reconnaissance regiment of General Brims; 1st
Armoured Division, the Queens Dragoon Guards, seems to be ensconced guarding
northern approaches to Basra, particularly the motorway going towards Kut
and beyond.

Approaches from the west are held by 7th Armoured Brigade units like the
Black Watch and Royal Scots Dragoon Guards. To the south, 40 Commando Royal
Marines are in position. Encirclement is completed by the Euphrates to the
east.

In phase two, British units are trying to build trust with the local
population, increase intelligence on what is happening within the city, and
carry out fighting patrols to take prisoners and degrade Saddam's forces
within Basra.

This phase is ongoing. To start with, soldiers have been allowed to take
their helmets and flak jackets off. They look far less threatening that way
to the local people. They have started to patrol in much the same way as we
have done for so long in Northern Ireland.

Civilians have also been allowed to pass freely into and out of Basra.
Already, we are seeing growing signs of trust from the local people.

With growing trust, comes more information and intelligence. But
intelligence must also be sought out. Thus we have also seen evidence of
fighting patrols sent to gain prisoners as well as take out Iraqi defensive
positions.

Artillery, mortar attacks, and air strikes have also occurred, but with
great care. It is clear we have reconnaissance patrols which operate into
the centre of the city too.

Such patrols have the principal task of gaining information or directing
fire onto enemy locations. It is clear that phase two operations are
preparatory to the final phase, taking Basra.

Phase three is yet to happen, but might not involve classic methods of
fighting through a town. It is already clear that the British forces want to
avoid taking Basra in the traditional way - by slow, detailed attrition of
the defences - because this would cause far too many casualties, military as
well as civilian.

Obviously an uprising against Saddam's enforcers would be an ideal ending,
but that may not happen. Some 12 years ago, President George W Bush's father
encouraged the Marsh Arabs around Basra to revolt.

When they did so, the rebellion was utterly crushed by Saddam and nobody
from outside Iraq did anything to help. I suspect that the people of Basra
will not rebel this time until they see Saddam's head on a stick.

So, perhaps, phase three might occur in the traditional way. Maybe plans are
afoot to go into the centre of Basra with armoured forces and great support
from the air?

A rapid move into the city might just catch defenders on the hop, and
precipitate their surrender. That option may be a gamble but possibly a
worthwhile one.

If it worked, it could also become a model for what is to happen in Baghdad.
The risk may be worth it.