[A-List] Iraq: the fog of war

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Riddle of Saddam's disappearing army
Coalition chiefs wonder: where are Republican Guards?

LORNA MARTIN
The Herald, 4 April 2003

THE elite Republican Guards (RG) were supposed to have formed a ring of
steel around the Iraqi capital.

Yesterday, however, the question for military strategists was: what has
happened to them?

Has the 70,000-strong force retreated to Baghdad in preparation for a
campaign of urban guerrilla warfare? Have they withdrawn tactically to lead
coalition troops into a trap?

Or, is it simply the case that Saddam, or whoever is in charge, has lost the
ability to co-ordinate the army, as suggested by the apparent crushing of
two divisions on Tuesday?

US commanders have conceded they do not know what lies ahead.

Preparations for urban warfare in Baghdad were supported by journalists
reporting sightings of pick-up trucks equipped with machine-guns and
anti-aircraft guns dotted across the city's boundaries.

Iraqi authorities have insisted US troops will face bloody street battles.
"God willing, we will teach the enemy lessons on the battlefield that it
will not forget," an RG commander said on al-Jazeera yesterday.

But few defence experts actually expect the fierce campaign of guerrilla
warfare to materialise, and believe the ordinary RG force may well have been
defeated.

"As to what's inside of Baghdad, we'll see soon enough," Brigadier General
Vincent Brooks told a briefing at the US Central Command advance
headquarters in Qatar yesterday.

He said: "There are a number of things which could be considered at this
point. Has this regime expended all of its capability in other areas? Did
they use too much of what they had against us? Have they pulled back into
Baghdad to await our arrival? We'll have to take that into consideration and
see if that is the case."

Klaus Reinhardt, a German former commander of the Nato-led peacekeeping
force in Kosovo, said he did not think the RG strategy was a trap or a
surprise.

He said: "The Americans are going forward very systematically. They have
secured their lines of communication. They have brought forward extra
forces, specifically three regiments of marines, and they have fixed and
struck the Republican Guards ahead of them with their air force, artillery,
and with combat helicopters. And they have done this successfully."

Jonathan Eyal, of London's Royal United Services Institute for Defence
Studies, agreed. "What we have effectively done is achieved some of the key
objectives of the alliance very quickly - to separate two Republican Guard
divisions but, more importantly, also to draw out of the immediate defences
of the Iraqi capital some of the best assets that Saddam Hussein has," he
said.

"The strategy of the alliance has also been to tie in as tightly as possible
a siege around the Iraqi capital, but also to draw out of the Iraqi capital
... the military assets of Saddam Hussein.

"It is working, and one has to admit it even worked much better than the
alliance commanders envisaged."

Despite the special status given to the "elite" Republican Guard, it is not
Saddam's last line of defence. It is not deemed trustworthy enough to
maintain his security in central Baghdad.

That role falls to the Special Republican Guards, an elite within the elite.
The "Praetorian Guard" of 12,000 to 15,000 was formed in the 1990s after the
RG's loyalty was called into question by Saddam amid rumours of a coup.

It is now the only force stationed in central Baghdad and may prove far more
formidable than the ordinary guards.