[A-List] A Russian view of the war (April 2)

[Jim Farmelant <farmelantj@xxxxxxxx>]

 The English translation, that appears below comes from
 Venik's Aviation http://www.aeronautics.ru/

       Jim F.
   ------------------------------------------
April 2, 2003, 1335hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - Exceptionally
difficult and unstable situation has developed on the US-Iraqi
front by the morning of April 1. The coalition troops are persistently
trying to take control of the strategic "triangle"
Karabela - Al-Khindiya - Al-Iskanderiya. At the same time the
coalition units are continuing their advance toward Al-Kut and
An-nu-Manyah, but so far the US forces were unable to take any
of these towns. To move forward the US units are forced to leave
behind large numbers of troops needed to blockade the towns remaining
under Iraqi control. The An-Najaf and An-Nasiriya garrisons are
still involved in active combat deep behind the coalition forward lines.

The coalition command had to deploy two brigades from the 101st
Airborne Division to blockade and to storm An-Najaf and An-Nasiriya.
These two brigades will replace elements of the US 1st Marine
Division (the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit under the command of
Col. John Waldhauser) that has been fighting in this area for the
past six days. These "heavy" attack brigades are currently being
deployed to the area of intense fighting near Al-Hillah.

Rough estimates show that the territory "captured" by the coalition
forces still contains at least 30,000 Iraqi regular troops and
militia engaged in active combat. Military experts are already
warning the US command about the danger of underestimating the
enemy: doing so may seriously complicate the situation of the
attacking forces and foil the coalition's very optimistic plans.

On the other hand, the Iraqi command is being forced to withdraw
its troops under the protection of towns. Iraqis are also forced
to minimize all active combat operations outside the city limits
as the desert terrain maximizes the enemy's advantage in aviation
and its technological superiority in reconnaissance and targeting
systems. This robs the Iraqis of their mobility and forces them to
resort to "fortress-like" type of warfare, which, clearly, is
significantly reducing their combat effectiveness.

Near Karabela the command of the 3rd Mechanized Infantry Division
has completely abandoned its plans to storm the town. After blocking
Karabela on three sides the 3rd Infantry Division directed its main
thrust toward the towns of Al-Musaib and Al-Khindiya. Heavy combat
is continuing in this area for the second day. The US is continuously
escalating the intensity of its attacks and is using nearly all
artillery and tank units available to the strike group's command.
Nevertheless, the coalition forces are still unable to penetrate the
Iraqi defenses. The commander of the 3rd Infantry Division Major
General Buford Blount is reporting fierce Iraqi resistance.
According to the General, elements of the 2nd Iraqi Republican Guard
"Medina" Division that are defending these positions maintain high
combat potential and are repelling all attempts to break through
their lines. During the past day and today's early morning the
[coalition] field commanders have reported the loss of up to 5
tanks, 7-10 APCs and IFVs and no less than 9 killed. At least one
helicopter was hit and made an emergency landing. Two more helicopters
reported taking serious damage and their situation so far is unknown.
Iraqi losses [near Karabela], based on the US reports from the
battlefield, include at least 300 killed and up to 30 destroyed tanks
and APCs. In the morning the coalition forces have ceased the attack
and now the Iraqi positions are being engaged by aviation. The
next [coalition] attack is anticipated during the night.

Heavy fighting is continuing in the town of Al-Hillah. Despite
strong aviation and artillery support the US Marine units are still
unable to strengthen their positions on the left bank of the Euphrates
and to push the Iraqi forces out of the town. During the past 24 hours
the US Marines in Al-Hillah lost up to 5 armored vehicles; at least
10 soldiers were killed or wounded. According to the reports by the
US commanders, the Iraqi losses during this time amount to at least
100 killed; 10 reinforced strongholds inside the town have been
destroyed; there are reports of 80 Iraqis captured during a cleanup
operation in the occupied part of the town.

A crisis situation has developed in the area of Al-Divania. Having
encountered no initial Iraqi opposition elements of the US Marine
2nd Expeditionary Unit begun advancing toward the town but were met
with heavy artillery and mortar fire and were forced to assume
defensive positions resorting to close combat. The exchange of fire
continued for nearly seven hours resulting in up to 12 destroyed US
tanks and APCs and up to 20 killed or wounded Marines. Currently the
Iraqi positions are being attacked by artillery and aviation.

Yesterday's attempts by the US troops to storm the part of An-Nasiriya
on the left bank [of the Euphrates] yielded no results. After moving
behind the Iraqi positions, while simultaneously attacking them from
the front, the US troops still were unable to break the Iraqi defenses
and by morning were forced to return to the their starting positions.
The coalition losses in this engagement, according to reports by
[the US] field commanders, were 2 killed and up to 12 wounded; a
[US] helicopter took a hit and made an emergency landing in the
northern part of An-Nasiriya.

Also no results came from the coalition attempts to capture
An-Najaf. All US attacks were repelled. There have been reports
of 3 destroyed APCs and at least 5 killed or wounded coalition troops.

Near Basra the British forces are still unable to tighten their
blockade of the city. During the night the Iraqis attacked British
units near the village of Shujuh and threw the British back 1.5-2
kilometers. According to the Iraqi reports, at least 5 British
soldiers were killed in this attack. The British, on the other hand,
have reported 2 missing and 4 wounded soldiers. Iraqis have reported
that a destroyed British tank and two APCs were left behind on the
battlefield.

Tactical attack units from the US 82nd Airborne Division and
the 22nd SAS Regiment, earlier deployed to northern Iraq near
the town of Al-Buadj, were destroyed and dispersed as the result
of a daylong battle with the Iraqi troops. The exact number of
[coalition] losses is still being verified. Intercepted radio
communications show that the coalition troops are retreating in
small groups and have no exact information about their own losses.
Currently the remaining units are trying to reach the
Kurdish-controlled territory. It is believed that up to 30
[coalition] soldiers were killed or captured by the Iraqis.

Military analysts believe that today and tomorrow will decide the
outcome of the attack on Baghdad that begun two days ago. If the
coalition forces fail to break the Iraqi defenses, then by the
weekend the US will be forced to curtail all attacks and to resort
to positional warfare while regrouping forces and integrating them
with the fresh divisions arriving from the US and Europe. Such a
tactical pause in the war, although not a complete halt in
combat operations (the coalition command will continue trying
to use localized attacks to improve its positions), may last
seven to fourteen days and will lead to a full re-evaluation
of all coalition battle plans.

(source: iraqwar.ru, 04-02-03, translated by Venik)

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