[A-List] A Russian view of the war (April 1)

[Jim Farmelant <farmelantj@xxxxxxxx>]

The English translation, that appears below comes from
Venik's Aviation http://www.aeronautics.ru/

      Jim F.
  ------------------------------------------
April 1, 2003, 1404hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - As of the
morning of April 1 active combat operations continued along
the entire US-Iraqi front.

The town of Karabela ? one of the key points in the Iraqi
defense ? is subjected to a continuing artillery barrage. The
town outskirts are being attacked by the coalition aviation.
However, so far the US forces made no attempts to enter the town.
Available information suggests that after evaluating Karabela?s
defenses the US command made a decision to delay storming the town.
Orders were issued to the coalition troops to move around the town
from the east and to take control of the strategic Al-Hillah,
Al-Khindiya, and Al-Iskanderiya region. Several largest highways
are intersecting in this area, which also contains the three strategic
bridges across the Euphrates. Gaining control of this ?triangle? will
finally open the way for the coalition troops into the valley between
the Tigris and the Euphrates and the route to the Babylon-Baghdad
highway. Yesterday and today early morning most heated combat continued
in this area.

During a night attack the US forces were able to reach the center of
Al-Khindiya by 0800hrs and to move to the right bank of the Euphrates.
However, their further advance was stopped by heavy fire from the
Iraqi positions across the river. Al-Khindiya is being defended
by up to 2,000 Iraqi soldiers and militia armed with up to 20 tanks
and around 250 anti-tank weapons of various types. During this battle
one US soldier was killed, 2 were missing in action and seven were
wounded. For now it is impossible to determine the Iraqi losses.
Throughout the night the US field commanders have reported at least
100 killed and 30 captured Iraqi soldiers and militia members.
However, by morning the number of captured was revised down to
less than 15.

The [coalition] effort to capture Al-Hillah was unsuccessful.
All attempts by the US troops to enter the town during the night
have failed. Every time they were met with heavy Iraqi fire near
the town. Intercepted radio communications show that one US APC
was destroyed and at least 5 soldiers were killed and wounded.

Fighting is continuing near An-Najaf. The town is currently
surrounded from three sides by the US Marines, who are still unable
to enter the town. The Iraqi positions are being subjected to
artillery and aerial bombardment. No information is available about
any losses in this area.

Since 0700hrs reports are coming about large-scale attacks by the
US Marines and infantry units against An-Nasiriya. As was previously
expected, up to two Marine battalions deployed on the left bank of
the river to the north of the town have begun advancing on An-Nasiriya
from the north and are now trying to break the Iraqi defenses and
to capture this strategic town. More than a hundred of aerial strikes
have been delivered against the Iraqi positions [at An-Nasiriya] just
during today?s morning. There is a continuing artillery barrage.
All this indicates the US Marines are determined to fulfill their
orders and take the town. However, so far neither Marines nor the
paratroopers were able to widen their staging area or to break
through Iraqi defenses. Radio surveillance indicates that during the
morning hours of today there were 5 medevac helicopter flights to
this area. At least 3 US soldiers were killed.

Another US combat convoy crossed to the left bank of the Euphrates
and by today?s morning reached the outskirts of the town of Ash-Shatra
located 40 kilometers north of An-Nasiriya. This unit is now engaged
in combat. For now there is no additional information about this
convoy?s losses or movements.

Localized fighting is continuing near Basra. Throughout the last night
and today?s early morning the British forces were making attempt to
capture the neighboring villages of As-Zubair and Suk-al-Shujuh,
but, despite of overwhelming artillery and aviation support, the
British were forced to return to their original positions. During
these battles 1 British soldier was killed, 1 is missing and up to
5 were wounded. No information is available about the Iraqi losses.
According to the reports by the British, at least 200 Iraqi troops
were killed and no less than 50 were captured. However, only under
10 captured Iraqis were delivered to the British camp and only 4
of them were in military uniform. This was reported by one of
the US journalist located in this area during a phone conversation
with the editor.

Active combat reconnaissance operations by both sides are continuing
in the north of Iraq. There have been reports of an attack launched
by an Iraqi battalion against the positions of a US combat unit
from the 82nd Airborne Division. It was reported that during the
night the Iraqis moved around the US position and in the morning
attacked the US forces from the rear. A fierce exchange of fire is
continuing in this area. The US forces have requested aviation support.

The combat activity of the Kurds supported by the US forces was
limited to clearing several areas occupied by its long-time
enemy ? the militant Islamic group called ?Ansar al Islam?, after
which the Kurdish units have stopped. Amid calls by the US military
for a continuing offensive the Kurdish troops appear to be in no
rush to engage the regular troops of the Iraqi army and are more
interested in reaping the spoils of war. The Kurdish leadership is
not particularly interested in ?leading? the advancing forces.
Instead they are calling on the US to strengthen the US forces
deployed in this area. With at least another 2,000 paratroopers and
to ?bomb the Iraqis some more.? This indicates that the Kurds are
not willing to move their forces too far from the home bases fearing
an attack in the back by the Turkish troops. Their fears are reinforced
by the continuing assurances by the US to respect Turkey?s territorial
integrity. The term ?territorial integrity? in this case covers
almost 40% of the territory of the current Northern Kurdistan, which
has the de facto independence from Turkey and Iraq. It is likely
that the Kurdish forces will move forward only after the complete
military defeat of the Iraqis, when their desire for the war booty
will make them less cautious.

Analysis of the present state of the US-British coalition fighting
in Iraq suggests that the current active combat phase will last for
about 4-5 days. After that the troops will once again require time
for rest, repairs and reinforcement. Most analysts believe that
this time the coalition will require more downtime than the last time,
when it stopped for just long enough to get resupplied and
immediately continued their advance so not to lose the initiative
and not to let the enemy come to their senses. The price of
putting this ?squeeze? on the troops is enormous exhaustion and
extensive wear of equipment, which is long overdue for serious
scheduled maintenance.

At the same time the fresh forces arriving in Kuwait from Europe
and the US will not be able to join the combat before Monday
April 7 as deployment of troops is progressing with many delays
and is poorly organized. The units that already arrived
[in Kuwait] cannot get to their weapons and the weapons already
delivered here are sitting here without the troops to which
they are assigned.

Because of this the coalition command has ordered the attacking
forces to be as aggressive as they can be to use this short time
to break the Iraqi defenses along the entire line of the front.
The troops are ordered by the end of this operation to advance
to the starting positions for the final assault on Baghdad and
to begin preparing to take the Iraqi capital. This order is
specifically referring to the importance of An-Nasiriya, An-Najaf
and the Karabela ? Al-Hillah? Al-Iskanderiya ?triangle?.
These areas will see the most combat action in the upcoming days.

Additionally, we should expect elements of the coalition forces
reaching the Amman-Baghdad highway, currently controlled only by
small US paratroop and special operations units and to form here
in the area of Al-Khabbania the western side of Baghdad?s blockade.
The Al-Khabbania region also contains three strategic airfields
and large stores of weapons causing serious concern on the part
of the coalition.

(source: iraqwar.ru, 04-01-03, translated by Venik)

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