[A-List] A Russian view of the war (March 31)

[Jim Farmelant <farmelantj@xxxxxxxx>]

 The English translation, that appears below comes from
Venik's Aviation http://www.aeronautics.ru/

      Jim F.
  ------------------------------------------
March 31, 2003, 1828hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - During the
night of March 30-31 the situation on the US-Iraqi front became
increasingly more critical. All indications are that the coalition
has launched a new attack.

Following a three-hour-long artillery barrage and several
nighttime aviation strikes the coalition forces came in contact
with the Iraqi troops near Karabela and attempted to move around
the Iraqi defenses from the east.

For now the coalition is limiting its actions to probing the forward
layer of the Iraqi defenses, attempting to assess its density and
organization after nearly five days of artillery and aerial bombardment.
There have been no reports of any coalition breaks through the Iraqi
defenses in this area. At the same time morning radio intercepts
uncovered a large US military convoy moving around the Razzaza Lake.
At the moment it is unclear whether the purpose of this movement
is to get to the town of Ar-Ramdia or a wider maneuver leading
to the town of Al-Falludja.

Another [coalition] convoy numbering up to 100 combat vehicles was
seen near the town of Al-Hillah moving in the southeaster direction
30 kilometers from the strategic Baghdad-Basra highway. Given there
is no Iraqi resistance this coalition force will be able to reach the
highway by today?s night. So far there were no reports of any losses
in this area.

The US forces resumed attacking Iraqi defenses near An-Najaf. The US
group of force in this area has been reinforced with at least three
reserve Marine battalions and now Americans are trying once again to
capture this key town. According to the US intelligence Iraqi defenses
in this area number up to 3,000 troops aided by around 1,500 volunteers
and [Ba?ath] party activists. The Iraqis here are armed with around
30 T-55 and T-62 tanks, up to four artillery batteries and more
than 300 various anti-tank weapons. The town is being stormed by
the elements of the 1st Marine Division numbering up to 6,000 troops
assisted by 80 tanks and 60 artillery systems. Additionally, aerial
support is provided by up to 40 helicopters. So far the Americans
were unable to push the enemy. Early today morning an American
tank was destroyed near An-Najaf. At least two of its crew were killed.

Intensive exchange of fire is continuing in the vicinity of An-Nasiriya.
The US Marines have so far been unable to side nth staging area
they captured seven days ago on the left bank of Euphrates. The
bridge connecting this staging area with the main coalition forces
is nearly destroyed and is under constant fire from the Iraqi defenses
located in the riverside city blocks. This is the reason why the
[coalition] troops holding the staging area can only be reinforced
by small and lightly-armed units and only during nighttime. During
the past night alone the Marines holding the staging area sustained
2 killed and 5 wounded.

The situation [for the coalition] is complicated by the fact that
the residential blocks occupied by the defending Iraqis come to the
very edge of the river, giving a significant advantage to the defenders
who control the river and all approaches to the river. Currently the
coalition artillery and aviation is methodically destroying these
blocks in an attempt to push the Iraqis away from the shoreline.

Intercepted radio communications indicate that the Marines engineering
units are ordered to build a pontoon crossing up the stream from
An-Nasiriya and move up to three battalions of Marines and troops from
the 82nd Airborne Division to the left bank of the Euphrates for a
future strike in the rear of the An-Nasiriya garrison. The coalition
command would have been ready to bypass other defended crossings on
the Euphrates if it wasn?t for one problem: the entire group of forces
has only two pontoon units. Any new pontoon units will arrive not
sooner than in mid-April.

A standoff between the Basra garrison and the British marine infantry
is continuing in the area of Basra. Using localized attacks the
British are attempting to ?lean? on Basra as closely as possible
and to tighten the blockade, but so far they were unsuccessful.
Thus, during the last night the British attempted to take the town
of Al-Hasib located 7 kilometers southeast of Basra. The British
plan was to reach the Al-Arab River and to slice the local Iraqi
defenses in half, separating Basra from the defending Iraqi forces
on the Fao peninsula. Up to a battalion of the British marine infantry
supported by armored vehicles entered the town of Al-Hasib from south
but in less than an hour they were stopped by Iraqi fire and
requested aviation and artillery support.

Fighting for the control of the town is continuing. At least two
British soldiers were killed and three were wounded in this battle.
One British armored personnel carrier was destroyed. British commanders
are reporting killing 50 Iraqis and capturing 10. In the area of the
As-Zubair River port, which was declared to be under full coalition
control just a week ago, a British patrol boat was attacked. The boat
was carrying its crew and a marine infantry unit. As the result of
the attack at least 4 British soldiers were killed and 9 were wounded.

The official coalition losses are, to put it mildly, ?falling behind?
the actual figures. The 57 dead acknowledged by the coalition command
reflect losses as of the morning of March 26. This information
was provided to a BBC correspondent by one of the top medical
officials at a field hospital in Al Kuwait during a confidential
conversation. ?We have standing orders to acknowledge only those
fatalities that have been delivered to the hospital, identified
and prepared to be sent back home. The identification process and
the required standard embalming takes some time ? occasionally up
to several days. But only the command knows how many casualties we
sustained today and you will learn about it in about three days??
[Reverse-translated from Russian] This conversation was taped by
the journalist and sent to the editor via a cellular phone network.

Based on the radio intercepts and internal information networks of
the US field hospitals as of this morning the coalition losses include
no less than 100 killed US servicemen and at least 35 dead British
soldiers. Additionally, some 22 American and 11 British soldiers are o
fficially considered to be missing in action and the whereabouts of
another 400 servicemen are being established. The number of wounded
has exceeded 480 people.

US experts at the coalition command headquarters studied the cases of
destroyed and damaged M1A2 tanks and various APCs. The conclusion
was that without a doubt the Iraqis do possess modern anti-tank
weapons but so far use them on a ?very limited scale.? Only three
tanks have been hit by guided weapons which destroyed these tanks
with the first hit. The rest of the tanks were destroyed with more
standard weapons. Some of the most common causes [of destroyed armor]
include: anti-tank guns (about 40% of all hits), man-portable
rocket-propelled grenade launchers (25% of hits), and landmines
(25% of hits). Effectiveness of anti-tank artillery has been
particularly high. ?Impacts by high-velocity projectiles do not
always destroy the tank and its crew. However, in 90% of all cases
the tank is disabled and the crew is forced to abandon the tank on
the battlefield?? ? says the report that was distributed to the
commanders of the forward units for analysis.

Russian military analysts are advising the Iraqi military command
against excessive optimism. There is no question that the US
?blitzkrieg? failed to take control of Iraq and to destroy its army.
It is clear that the Americans got bogged down in Iraq and the
military campaign hit a snag. However, the Iraqi command is now in
danger of underestimating the enemy. For now there is no reason to
question the resolve of the Americans and their determination to
reach the set goal ? complete occupation of Iraq.

In reality, despite of some obvious miscalculations and errors of
the coalition?s high command, the [coalition] troops that have
entered Iraq maintain high combat readiness and are willing to fight.
The losses sustained during the past 12 days of fighting, although
delivering a painful blow to the pride and striking the public opinion,
are entirely insignificant militarily speaking. The initiative in the
war remains firmly in the hands of the coalition. Under such
circumstances Iraqi announcements of a swift victory over the
enemy will only confuse its own troops and the Iraq?s population
and, as the result, may lead to demoralization and a reduced
defensive potential?

Russian military analysts believe that the critical for the US
duration of the war would be over 90 days provided that during
that time the coalition will sustain over 1,000 killed. Under
such circumstances a serious political crisis in the US and
in the world will be unavoidable.

(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-31-03, translated by Venik)


________________________________________________________________
Sign Up for Juno Platinum Internet Access Today
Only $9.95 per month!
Visit www.juno.com