Re: [A-List] "Has the Fuhrer seen this map?"

["Christopher Black" <bar@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Talking of comparisons many forget the Battle of Berlin which is perhaps
more apt than Stalingrad in one sense in that the Russians at Berlin had
absolute air dominance whereas at Staligrad and even Leningrad the Russians
fought for the skies.

If I remember correctly the Russians, though they finally took Berlin, used
nearly a million men to do it and lost over 350,000. The size of the entire
Anglo- US forces in Iraq and then they were dealing with a sizable and
determined but already broken German Army.

If the Iraqis fight street to street, building block to building block the
casualties figures would be comparable.

Chris
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bob Enoch" <bobenoch@xxxxxxx>
To: <a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, March 31, 2003 9:47 PM
Subject: [A-List] "Has the Fuhrer seen this map?"


> The next five or six weeks are a period of real danger for  5 Corps in
Iraq.
> It is becoming self-evident that this force does not have the power to
> "take" Baghdad.Talk of Northern and Western "fronts" is pure bunkum,
> embarrassing even to tv "generals".
> There is nothing about the US Armed forces which exempts them from the
> logistical laws which govern mechanized warfare, or the endurance limits
of
> fighting units.
> 5 Corps is sitting at the end of a supply line which is indeed reminiscent
> of the situation of the Germans at Stalingrad.
> For them to launch an all-out attack on dug-in defences in these
conditions
> would present the possibility of disaster for the "spearhead".Running
short
> of fuel and ammunition during an offensive risks complete defeat.
> And a sandstorm during , or after such an attack could lead to the
> destruction of 5 Corps., as it would make possible an armoured attack on
the
> Highway.
> The sensible military course is withdrawal to a line Nasiriyah-Najaf-Kut,
> none of which has yet "fallen", and the taking of Basrah.
> This course presents grave political difficulties, as did Von Paulus'
desire
> to withdraw from the Volga in '42-'43.
>
> Remember that there is now no "rear area" in Iraq. No towns have been
taken,
> depending on what you believe about Umm Qasr. No secure rest areas. The
> fighting edge of 5 corps has been continuously engaged for ten days.The
> Iraqis have it in their power to keep these troops engaged for a great
while
> yet, even if 5 Corps don't attack.
> Further, there is no end in sight for this situation facing the 3rd. ID,
and
> the Marine E.F.
> The 4th ID, arriving now in Kuwait, needs weeks to assemble and tune-up as
a
> unit to exert its massive effect on the battlefield. It will not get
them.It
> will be have to be used piecemeal to relieve exhausted units in 5 Corps,
and
> along the supply line.
> 1st Cav. and other units will take even longer to arrive and be ready for
> this battlefield.
> This means that no overwhelming force can safely approach Baghdad for at
> least several months, if then.We still don't know how well the Republican
> Guard is camouflaged; I suspect very well indeed.
> And then there is the weather.
> And suicide bombers.
> In conventional terms, the war has entered a very difficult phase for the
> invaders.There is a danger of a heavy , undeniable defeat.
> Here is the rub.
> It is not easy to see how the US could use their own WMD in a decisive way
> on the battlefield without causing tens of thousands of civilian dead.In
the
> current Global polity that is emerging
> the reaction to that would be electric, and unpredictable.This may be
Iraqs'
> best defence against WMD, but the pressure for a frightened regime to use
> them will be great.
> If they are not a bit frightened surveying this operational map, they
should
> be.
>
> Bob
>
>
>